Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Thunderstorms are ongoing in the western FL Big Bend
northeastward into SW GA and south in the eastern Big Bend. Aloft,
there is a vort lobe traversing the area. Morning TAE sounding
was favorable for gusty to strong downburst winds and some hail
given favorable mid level lapse rates. High resolution model
guidance depicts increasing coverage of convection into the
evening hours with an overall diminishing trend towards late this
evening. On Saturday, the atmosphere doesn't change much with the
exception of losing some of the vorticity aloft. Expect the
seabreezes to become active in the afternoon hours. Bumped rain
chances up from just inland northward into the Flint river area.
Highs will reach the lower 90s and lows tonight in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

At the start of the short term, there may be some lingering
showers and thunderstorms from that developed from the Atlantic
sea breeze that should continue to diminish through the evening.
That will be the theme as high pressure will prevail. This summer
like pattern that brings afternoon thunderstorms is expected to
continue for the next few days with Highs in the low 90s and Lows
in the upper 60s. PoPs chances range from 25% to 40% Sunday
afternoon. Light westerly/northwesterly winds are expected during
the day on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

An upper level trough to the north will be expanding south and
west, weakening the ridge that has been over us. A weak cold front
is expected to attempt to pass through on Monday into Tuesday.
This is expected to bring temperatures back down into the upper
80s, briefly. Dewpoints are forecast to come down to the low 60s
in our central GA counties by Tuesday. So, ahead of the front we
have rain chances for Monday afternoon with PoPs ranging from
30%-50%, with the highest chances along the I-75 corridor. After
the frontal passage, we still expect to be in a summertime pattern
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea
breeze (PoPs generally around 20%-40% after Monday). The front
could stall or wash-out as it makes its way through the CWA,
depending on which could increase/decrease rain chances in the
coming week. High temperatures will range in the low 90s, except
for Tuesday with temps in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Convection is currently developing in the FL Panhandle and SW GA
currently with additional convection expected to develop into SE
AL the FL Big Bend over the next few hours. The east coast
seabreeze will move westward toward the Big Bend and SW GA later
this afternoon. Therefore, have VCTS starting sooner at ECP/TLH
then in a few hours at the other sites. Convection will diminish
late evening and overnight. Another round of convection will
develop just after this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

With high pressure centered northeast of the region, generally
light easterly to southeasterly winds will continue through the
weekend, with seas remaining 3 feet or less. A weak front may
approach the waters from the north early next week with winds
becoming northerly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible both
Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will dominate from off the
Atlantic coast keeping winds light and from the east to southeast
outside of thunderstorms. Afternoon high temperatures will reach
the lower 90s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today over much
of our CWA. Overall, 1 to 2 inches of rain could accumulate, with
isolated amounts up to 3 inches in the heavier
showers/thunderstorms. Rivers are currently in good shape, so
riverine flooding is not expected. There may be some nuisance
flooding in low-lying areas which receive heavier rainfall today.
Otherwise, there are no long term concerns of flooding but, there
will be a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours over the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  90  69  91 /  50  50  10  40
Panama City   69  85  70  87 /  20  30  10  30
Dothan        67  89  69  90 /  50  50  20  40
Albany        67  90  69  91 /  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      66  88  67  90 /  50  50  30  40
Cross City    66  89  66  89 /  40  30  20  30
Apalachicola  71  81  70  83 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

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