Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
203 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISK...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Expansive area of convection continues to advance and develop
eastward across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early
this afternoon. Surface instability has been hampered in this
region by the ample stratiform precip associated with the cluster
of convection. However, there have been embedded elevated severe
storms just to the west in Mobile's forecast area. There are also
signs that convection in the far western Panhandle is becoming
more linearly organized, possibly aided by the approach of a 500mb
shortwave and associated speed max. Downstream, temperatures are
gradually warming in the Panhandle, and warming more rapidly in
the Big Bend and far SW Georgia. In this region, MLCAPE values are
now in the 1000-1500j/kg range as stronger deep layer shear
begins to encroach. In addition, the supercell currently
approaching Bay County coast has been occasionally showing signs
of low-level rotation. The environment ahead of this cell will be
supportive of brief tornadoes as it moves onshore. As the
afternoon wears on, expect the organizing convection in the
western Panhandle to gradually intensify as it advances eastward
into the more unstable airmass across the eastern Panhandle and
Big Bend. Damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will continue to
be the primary threats. However, severe hail will still be
possible in isolated cells ahead of this line.

Locally heavy rainfall will be continue to possible with stronger
storms, producing rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour (with a
few localized 3 inch/hour rates possible). Depending on the
evolution of the cluster through the afternoon, localized flash
flooding may be possible, especially in more flood-prone areas.

Camp

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

A fairly messy setup is expected today with potentially a couple
rounds of showers and storms. Some showers and storms have already
begun developing over the Gulf this morning and will likely continue
to edge closer to the coast over the next several hours. While there
is still a lot of spread in the timing within short term guidance,
forecast tends to favor a bit of an earlier timeline given
convection already ongoing over the Gulf. A blossoming of storms is
expected first along the Panhandle coast later this morning before
moving northeastward. A break in convection will be possible before
another large swath of showers and storms is forecast to sweep into
the region from the west in the early afternoon through the evening.
Severe weather will be possible with any of these storms today, with
tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall all possible.
Aside from some curvature right near the surface, forecast
hodographs show a fairly straight profile indicating both left and
right moving storms could be possible which along with any outflows
may make individual storm motions fairly chaotic. However, the
entire complex of storms is generally expected to be moving west to
east. SPC has placed most of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for severe weather today.

After the main round of storms pushes through in the evening or
early overnight, some lingering showers may remain in its wake. A
break in convection is expected for most of the night until some
redevelopment of showers and storms will be possible early Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

A very active short term period is in store with rounds of showers
and storms bringing the chances for both severe weather as well as
heavy rainfall.

In the wake of today's storms, the upper-level shortwave will move
into the lower Great Lakes with a surface cold front slowly easing
into our area. Guidance is a bit mixed with storm potential on
Friday. There are a few scenarios. The first scenario is that a
complex of thunderstorms develops over the Gulf of Mexico and
moves east-northeastward into the Florida Big Bend Friday morning.
If this happens, afternoon instability would be questionable. The
second scenario is that the thunderstorms over the Gulf are weak
or move into the Peninsula. This may allow for a little more
instability across the land areas and some storm develop along the
trailing cold front. Regardless, ahead of either scenario, there
will be ample instability and about 30 to 40 kts of deep-layer
shear. Mid-level lapse rates will also be steep, nearing 7 C/km.
This supports a threat of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado. This part of the forecast is still of higher uncertainty
than normal. Regardless, SPC has outlined our Georgia and Big Bend
counties in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5).
Otherwise, highs will be in the 80s. Rain chances diminish into
the evening and overnight with lows in the 60s.

Our attention then turns to Saturday's system. A more potent
shortwave moves into the Gulf States with a vorticity lobe
rounding the eastern side on Saturday. This spurs cyclogenesis
over the western Gulf of Mexico along our then-stalled frontal
boundary. This front will lift northward through our area as a
warm front during the day, bringing an initial round of showers
and thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be sufficient as
well as some enhanced turning over the winds with height. This
means that there could be an initial round of severe weather with
the northward advancing warm front Saturday afternoon. However,
the uncertainty here is that the widespread rain north of the warm
front could slow the progress of the warm front inland. It should
make it inland eventually given a strengthening low-level jet up
to 40 to 50 kt. The cold front will then move through the area
with possibly a line of storms, which could also be strong to
severe. Mid-level lapse rates will also steepen as we'll have warm
air at the surface and cooling temperatures aloft as the
shortwave approaches. There's a lot of moving parts to this
forecast, and a lot depends on the track and intensity of the
system. Thus, while the ceiling for severe potential may be higher
on Saturday than today's or Friday's storms, the uncertainty in
the forecast leads us to a Marginal Risk of severe weather from
SPC for Saturday. This may change in later outlooks, so keep up
with the latest forecast.

In addition to the severe threat, the rounds of storms will lead
to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat. Given likely wet soils
at this point, any heavier rainfall could lead to some localized
flash flooding as storms will be able to tap into very moist air
characterized by PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches. More details on the
flash flood threat in the hydrology section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

The upper-level shortwave moves across the area on Sunday,
bringing an end to the rain chances by Sunday night. Still, some
showers and storms are expected mostly over the eastern half of
the area Sunday. Depending on the speed of this system, some
severe threat may linger into Sunday morning as well. This is
still rather uncertain at this point. Either way, by Sunday night,
the area is dry and we will see slightly cooler temperatures and
drier air for the start of the work week. Highs will be in the 70s
and 80s with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Widespread showers and storms, some which are forecast to become
severe, will affect area terminals this afternoon. The greatest
severe potential will be across Florida counties. Widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast through the evening at
ECP/TLH/DHN and these will spread east towards ABY and VLD by the
evening hours. A break in severe weather is likely late tonight
into the early part of the overnight hours but more severe weather
is likely to develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Moderate southeasterly flow prevails through the end of the week
across the marine area with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms today could be strong to severe
with strong winds, hail, and waterspouts. Along with the
thunderstorms, will be monitoring the threat of increasing winds
behind the thunderstorms and may need to hoist a small craft
advisory later this afternoon into the evening hours. A stronger
system will move through the area late Saturday into Sunday, which
may bring gusts to gale force. This is ultimately dependent on
the track ans strength of the system, so this bears watching
heading into the next few days. A cold front sweeps through the
marine area late Sunday, bringing lighter northwest to west winds
in its wake.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Mostly fair dispersions are expected today as showers and
thunderstorms are expected to spread over the region throughout the
day. This wet pattern will continue Friday into the weekend with
wetting rains very likely area-wide. Otherwise, there are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Bottom line: A very wet pattern with rounds of heavy rainfall is
expected through the weekend. Flash flooding is possible as well
as eventual rises on area rivers, especially in the western parts
of the forecast area. Minor coastal flooding may also be possible
along the east side of Apalachee Bay this weekend.

With the large line of showers and thunderstorms, heavy rainfall
is a possibility with about 1 to 2 inches of rain widespread and
locally higher amounts. The higher amounts would occur where the
line becomes more east-west oriented, resulting in some slower
progress of storms to the east. There will be another batch of
storms across the area Friday, mostly over the eastern half of the
area, which may also bring some localized heavy downpours.
However, the flood risk Friday is a bit lower as these storms
should be moreso over the drier parts of the Big Bend and south
central Georgia.

Heading into the weekend, a stalled front near or just offshore
will lift northward through the area, bringing a round of heavy
rainfall with it. Showers and storms will remain possible through
the day before a round of strong storms and heavy rainfall moves
through the area Saturday night into Sunday. Given that soils will
likely be wet at this point given today's and Friday's rainfall,
the threat of flash flooding is a bit higher for Saturday into
Sunday. The thinking is we may need a Flood Watch for parts of the
area for Saturday into Sunday, but holding off for now to see how
much rain falls in the next 24 hours. Regardless, another 2 to 4
inches of rain may be possible over the weekend with locally
higher amounts. When all is said and done, accumulated rainfall
through Sunday may be around 3 to 6 inches widespread with
localized totals of 8 inches or more.

On the riverine front, given the forecast rainfall, ensemble
guidance suggests that there is about a 20 to 30 percent chance of
minor flooding along parts of the Choctawhatchee, Chipola, and
Apalachicola Rivers. Where the heaviest rain falls will determine
the extent and severity of river flooding. Other rivers in Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend are expected to fare better as conditions
have been drier over these areas as of late.

In the coastal flood realm, some nuisance to minor coastal
flooding may be possible along the east side of Apalachee Bay
given persistent strengthening southwest winds over the weekend.
This is dependent on several factors, including track and
intensity of the weekend system, which will also in turn affect
the wind and fetch forecast. Right now, it appears a reasonable
worst case would be minor coastal flooding along the Taylor and
Dixie County coasts. Further refinements to the forecast will be
made over the next few days, so stay tuned.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  82  66  82 /  80  70  20  80
Panama City   68  78  67  79 /  60  60  20  90
Dothan        65  82  62  80 /  60  50  10  70
Albany        64  82  64  83 /  80  60  10  60
Valdosta      65  81  66  84 /  90  70  20  80
Cross City    67  79  66  82 /  70  80  30  80
Apalachicola  68  76  68  76 /  70  70  20  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
138 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             GULF RESORT BEACH       30.23N 85.89W
04/27/2023  E1.25 INCH       BAY                FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED ESTIMATED QUARTER TO
            HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSTECTION
            OF HWY 79 AND 98.

&&

JM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
206 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     WATER SPOUT      1 SSE GULF RESORT BEACH 30.22N 85.89W
04/27/2023                   GMZ750             FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS OF A WATERSPOUT MOVING
            ONSHORE FROM PANAMA CITY BEACH.

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW HOLLYWOOD BEACH   30.27N 85.98W
04/27/2023                   BAY                FL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             1 WNW SOUTHPORT         30.30N 85.66W
04/27/2023  E1.75 INCH       BAY                FL   911 CALL CENTER

            THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF HAIL AROUND THIS
            SIZE, INCLUDING AT THE EOC. TREES AND POWER
            LINES DOWN AS WELL AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
            THE COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SW PFN-BAY COUNTY AIR 30.21N 85.69W
04/27/2023                   BAY                FL   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ ***
            A MAN WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN THE PANAMA
            CITY AREA. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N PANAMA CITY         30.19N 85.67W
04/27/2023                   BAY                FL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT 426 WEST 23RD STREET, PANAMA
            CITY, FL.

&&