Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
838 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Temperatures were reduced in areas seeing showers and storms in
the Florida Panhandle. PoPs were raised for areas in the eastern
Florida panhandle and I-75 corridor for the next few hours, as
storms are firing due to the westward-moving sea breeze. These
will diminish into the overnight hours, as storms are expected to
dissipate. Low temperatures are still on track to be in the low to
mid 60s across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Zonal 500mb flow is in place across the Deep South with sprawling
surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS keeping quasi-
moist low-level east to southeast flow in place across the
forecast area. This will support a smattering of showers and
storms associated with the east coast seabreeze late this
afternoon/evening, before activity dissipates. For Wednesday, an
approaching shortwave may help to enhance the coverage versus
today, so will have slightly higher PoPs. In addition, with the
modest westerly flow aloft, and relatively cool mid-level
temperatures, a few storms could be strong, especially late in the
afternoon along the I-75/Suwanee River Corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

An upper level shortwave trough will be passing over the southern
plains at the start of this period. We can expect a weakening
cold front to head towards the Tri-State region during the day on
Thursday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
form of a possible MCS. The SPC currently has a Marginal (1 of 5)
Risk for severe storms in our Central Time Zone counties for
Thursday evening. Instability and Lapse Rates look promising
enough for the threats to be gusty winds and large hail. With
forecast PWATS around 1.5" and above, heavy rainfall is also a
concern. The WPC has highlighted most of the CWA in a Marginal (1
of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Thursday. The cold front is
not expected to make it entirely through the CWA before falling
apart, as the upper level support lifts to the north.

PoPs for Wednesday night are minimal around 10% and less but will
increase to 50-70% for Thursday afternoon. About 70-80% PoPs for
Thursday night heading into Friday morning for the entire CWA.

Temperatures for the start of the term will begin in the low to
mid 60s for Thursday morning and is expected to warm to the low to
mid 80s, with the higher temperatures around the I-75 corridor
and the extreme SE Big Bend, approaching 90. Thursday night will
be a little warmer than Wednesday with Low temperatures in the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

This term is a little more complicated. A troughing pattern will
still be in place at the start of the term, as showers and
thunderstorms linger following Thursday's front. PoPs for Friday
are elevated at around 70-80%, decreasing from west to east
through the day and evening. There is model disagreement as to
when this weekend the next system is expected to impact the
region. The timing looks to begin Saturday night into Sunday
morning, but it could be extended to include all of Sunday. At the
moment, it is too soon to tell if there will be severe weather
and what the threats could be. Although, the ingredients such as
instability and shear are conducive for severe weather potential.
We will continue to monitor as we get closer to system
development. Yet, following the weekend's cold frontal passage,
there appears to be a consensus that a cooler and drier air mass
will set in over the region for the start of the next work week.

Temperatures for the long term will begin with the morning Lows
in the mid 60s and cooling to the 50s by Monday following the cold
front. Afternoon Highs will be in the low 80s on Friday, briefly
warming to the mid-80s for Saturday before cooling down again by
Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for the
remainder of the term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Convection near TLH and VLD is expected to dissipate early this
evening with VFR conditions prevailing for most of the night. Some
MVFR ceilings could affect DHN, ECP, and VLD Wednesday morning for a
few hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

An easterly flow pattern will continue through Wednesday night,
bringing typical nighttime and morning surges of winds, then
afternoon lulls. Winds will become southerly and increase on
Thursday, as low pressure moves from eastern Texas across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front will try to cross the
waters beginning on Thursday night, but it should weaken and
dissipate while it tries. A more substantial cold front may cross
the waters around Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Higher humidity levels and weaker winds, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms will keep fire weather concerns to a
minimum on Wednesday. A front will approach on Thursday, with
additional showers and thunderstorms, especially across the
western portions of the area. High dispersions will be possible
Thursday afternoon across eastern portions of the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Flooding is not expected through Thursday.

The next significant round of rain will come in a few rounds from
Thursday night through about Saturday, and another round for
Saturday night into Sunday. Over these three days, total rainfall
of 1.5 to 3 inches should be common for Thursday through Friday,
and perhaps another inch on top of that for Sunday's rain. In
response, rivers will rise late this week into the weekend, but
rivers are currently expected to remain within their banks.
Although, urban and street flooding may be possible with the
heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  86  63  84 /  30  20  10  40
Panama City   65  81  66  79 /  10  10  10  60
Dothan        61  82  62  81 /  10  30   0  60
Albany        60  83  60  84 /  10  20   0  40
Valdosta      61  83  59  86 /  30  20   0  30
Cross City    62  86  61  88 /  30  30  10  30
Apalachicola  68  77  68  76 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

FLZ019-260100-
Madison FL-
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Madison
County through 900 PM EDT...

At 824 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dowling Park, or 8 miles southwest of Suwannee River State Park,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8319 3035 8319 3035 8321 3031 8321
      3029 8323 3026 8324 3026 8333 3035 8340
      3050 8324 3047 8324 3046 8322 3042 8322
      3041 8321 3041 8319 3039 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 241DEG 7KT 3032 8327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
845 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

FLZ018-019-260130-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-
845 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Jefferson and northwestern Madison Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 845 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Monticello, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Madison, Greenville, Lovett, Dills, Cherry Lake,
Montivilla, Hamburg, Ashville and Hopewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8344 3055 8390 3067 8387 3064 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 306DEG 7KT 3056 8364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1020 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

GAZ159-160-260300-
Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-
1020 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lowndes
and southern Brooks Counties through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1019 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Quitman, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Quitman, Valdosta, I-75 At Exit 16, Dixie, Nankin, Grooverville,
Empress, Brooks Co A/p, Blue Springs and Kinderlou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 8345 3064 8348 3067 8374 3068 8375
      3096 8362 3081 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 216DEG 6KT 3071 8353

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

72-BUNKER

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