Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

After days of dealing with this stubborn stationary front and its
rounds of severe weather in our area, we're finally getting rid of
it tonight!

A large complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly
slide east-southeastward through the forecast area through early
evening. There remains plenty of instability of the storms, mostly
across the Florida Big Bend. However, there is an outflow boundary
near and along I-10, dropping south. Mid-level lapse rates are a bit
less steep than previous days, but we do have just a bit more deep-
layer shear. Thus, the primary severe threats this afternoon are
mostly gusty to damaging winds and some hail, and it may be limited
to areas along and south of I-10 at this point. It appears that the
tornado threat is rather minimal given very weak low-level shear and
limited SRH.

For the rest of this evening, showers and storms should move out of
Dixie County mid to late this evening with dry weather elsewhere.
Otherwise, skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through the night.
Cooler air filters in tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s
to middle 50s. For Wednesday, clouds will gradually clear through
the day with highs in the

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Upper level ridging will build back over the area following
the upper trough ejection to the NE. Dry air and subsidence aloft
will result in clear skies Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening. Surface winds will be calm and begin the period out of the
NNE, shifting to easterly/ESE through the period as a large surface
high pivots off the east coast. With radiational cooling making a
return, Wednesday night lows will drop to the mid 40s to low 50s.
Thursday highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

On Friday, southerly return flow will begin ahead of an
ejecting surface low over the Great Lakes region ushering in warm
and humid conditions once again. The WAA regime will lead to a
stratus deck appearing once again, bringing cloudy conditions back
into the forecast.

On Saturday, the upper trough continues ejecting to the NE with its
attendant cold front forecast to impact our area. Long range
guidance currently shows ample instability ahead of the front with
shear favorable for perhaps a few organized storms. However, one
issue that may occur with this setup would be the overall strength
of the subtropical ridge which could displace some of the forcing to
our north. These details will be ironed out over the coming days as
the event draws near.

Warm temperatures will likely hold into the beginning of the week
with another surface low spinning up over the northern plains on
Sunday which will result in another period of southerly return flow
beginning Monday. Highs throughout the period will generally range
from the low 70s to low 80s Wednesday and Thursday and increase to
the low to mid 80s Friday through Monday. Overnight lows will range
from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the
terminals early in the period with occasional MVFR and brier IFR
conditions. Ceilings will lift to VFR this evening. Winds will
shift from westerly to northerly after frontal passage, generally
at 10 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms currently spread over
a large portion of the region and will continue through the evening
as the stationary boundary finally moves out of the region.
Following frontal passage, winds over our waters should begin to
increase to cautionary conditions with seas ranging from 3-5ft
Wednesday with waters calming down near the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

A cold front will finish moving through the area tonight, bringing
an end to the rain chances. Drier air filters in behind the front
tomorrow with minRH values in the low-mid 30s for Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons. Transport winds will be out of the northeast at
10 mph on Wednesday, becoming easterly on Thursday. This will lead
to good dispersions the next couple days. Ahead of the next
approaching weekend front, southerly transport winds will increase
to 15 to 20 mph. This will lead to high dispersions, mostly over the
eastern areas Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

While we await a shortwave trough to clear out the frontal
boundary tonight , widespread moderate to occasionally heavy
rainfall is expected. Though areas in S GA and the Florida Big Bend
have been relatively dry, the potential for cell training could
overcome the localized dryness and lead to flash flooding.

Beyond this initial rainfall event, concerns will shift to riverine
flooding by the weekend in the ACF basin. While local rainfall will
not be sufficient to cause flooding, heavy rainfall from near West
Point GA eastward to Macon has sent considerable amounts of water
down the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers. The potential exists for
minor river flooding late in the weekend along the Flint at Albany.
Releases from West Point/Columbus/Walter F George will ultimately
determine downstream flood potential in the lower Chattahoochee and
into the Apalachicola. At this time range - stay tuned, but the
water is headed downhill into our region and will be addressed in
future forecasts.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   53  72  50  79 /  40   0   0   0
Panama City   53  71  52  76 /  20   0   0   0
Dothan        47  69  45  74 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        47  69  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  72  47  77 /  30   0   0   0
Cross City    58  77  51  82 /  60   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  72  57  72 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Worster

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

FLZ012>014-016-026-112-114-282015-
Coastal Bay FL-Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-
Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Gulf, eastern Bay and
Calhoun Counties in the Panhandle of Florida, south central Gadsden
and Liberty Counties in Big Bend of Florida through 415 PM EDT/315 PM
CDT/...

At 317 PM EDT/217 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles west of
Blountstown to 6 miles east of Callaway to 23 miles southwest of
Panama City Beach. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Callaway, Blountstown,
Springfield, Mexico Beach, Hiland Park, Stonemill Creek, Tyndall Air
Force Base, Orange, Parker, Wewahitchka, Bristol, Honeyville, Moose
Pond, Clarksville, Abe Springs, Allanton and Vilas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3016 8595 3024 8568 3044 8552 3044 8549
      3054 8543 3048 8460 3037 8467 3033 8472
      3032 8470 3001 8489 3001 8500 2995 8502
      2980 8548 2989 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 283DEG 28KT 3046 8522 3012 8547 2995 8610

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73-YOUNG