Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
134 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

No changes to the forecast this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Subtle upper level vort maxima interacting with a stationary surface
boundary just north of the forecast area will be the main players
today. Forcing appears best just to our north, but our area will
have at least moderate instability and shear to work with.
Thunderstorms that do manage to develop today will have the
potential to become severe across the northern half of forecast area
with a marginal to slight risk in place from the SPC. Also of note,
an enhanced risk is right along our northwestern border. The
forecast area today will be in a gradient of favorability, with much
more favorable conditions for severe weather just to our northwest
and less favorable conditions across the southeast half of the area.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats today,
although a couple of tornadoes are also possible across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia. Storms are expected to gradually
diminish this evening with the loss of some instability.

Temperatures will be above average today and tonight with highs in
the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

The quasi-stationary boundary that has been just north of the region
will move slightly to the south throughout Monday, parking itself
across our CWA. This southerly movement can be attributed to an
upper-level perturbation that moves across eastern CONUS
throughout Monday. There will once again be plenty of instability
on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE as moisture and diurnal
heating persist. The stationary boundary will again act as a
forcing mechanism across the region, allowing for diurnally forced
showers and thunderstorms. This will persist until Tuesday when
the next shortwave looks to push the boundary out of the region.
The SPC currently has our northern half within a marginal risk on
Monday (level 1 of 5) due to the enhanced instability, and modest
bulk shear, allowing for the possibility of severe hail, strong
winds, and possibly a tornado or two.

On Tuesday activity, for now, appears to be confined to our Florida
counties and Gulf waters as the stationary boundary is pushed
further south and out of the region.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Post-frontal we'll have northerly flow pushing through the region
with drier conditions expected through Thursday night. On Friday
southerly flow becomes re-established with moisture and temps on the
rise again ahead of the next potential frontal feature next weekend.

Expect daytime highs initially in the low to mid 70s on Wednesday
warming back up into the mid 80s by Saturday. Similarly, overnight
lows initially in the low to mid 50s warm back up into the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon outside of ECP where some
lower stratus has been lingering near the coast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop west of ECP and move toward DHN late this
afternoon and early evening. Some storms may produce severe winds
and hail. All sites will drop to MVFR with some IFR cigs possible
at ECP and TLH. Some patchy fog is also possible at ECP.
Confidence in fog is lower at TLH and VLD. Another line of storms
will move into DHN and ABY at the end of the TAF period with
MVFR/VFR conditions returning to all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

The current pattern will persist as it remains predominantly quasi-
stationary through Tuesday. A stalled front to our north is expected
to clear the area Tuesday night as a re-enforcing trough digs south
into the Mid-Atlantic states. This will bring an end to the current
pattern. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible today through Tuesday until the stalled front finally
clears the area. Seas will generally be 2-4 feet through the middle
part of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Rain chances will continue today across mainly the northwest
sections of the forecast area. Dispersions will also be high
periodically due to elevated transport winds. Chances for precip
currently favor our GA and AL counties on Monday, and possibly the
entire service area on Tuesday. Some storms may be strong to severe.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

As the stationary front remains in the area, there could be pockets
of localized heavy rainfall particularly across SE Alabama and SW
Georgia through Tuesday night. Currently the location of the
heaviest rainfall primarily depends on the location of the
aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary. Current guidance
continues to favor the northern zones of the forecast area in SE
Alabama and SW Georgia where widespread totals of 1-3 inches are
currently still forecast through Tuesday night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  85  66  78 /  10  40  10  70
Panama City   70  78  66  75 /  10  30  20  70
Dothan        68  79  62  71 /  30  60  30  70
Albany        68  81  61  72 /  30  60  20  60
Valdosta      68  84  65  76 /  10  40  20  70
Cross City    67  83  65  83 /   0  10   0  40
Apalachicola  70  77  67  75 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
140 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ065-261930-
Coffee AL-
140 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Coffee
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 140 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Andalusia, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Lee, Kinston, Alberton, Perry Store, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p,
Danleys Crossroads, Rhoades, Ino, Turner Crossroads, Wise Mill,
Goodman, New Haven, Basin, Holley Store and Marvin Chapel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
southeastern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8620 3151 8603 3137 8597 3120 8596
      3120 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 265DEG 24KT 3131 8641

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY