River Flood Warning 20, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
145 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A warm front was analyzed at 15z over the gulf waters, with the
entire region entrenched in southeast surface flow. Radar est'd
rainfall over the past 6-hours shows a swath of 3-5 inches from
Bay County northeastward into Leon County w/ground truth reports
around 4 inches. Heavy rainfall will continue to be the greatest
hazard today. WPC now has much of the tri-state region in a SLGT
risk for excessive rainfall. Given recent trends, the Flood Watch
was expanded northeast earlier this morning to include much of
the I-10 corridor in the FL Big Bend into the southern tier of
GA counties. Severe weather also remains possible today, although
convection thus far has been elevated over land areas. Surface
based instability will struggle to develop today. But if storms
can become sfc-based, they would be able to tap high Bulk Shear
and low-level SRH, with an isolated damaging wind and tornado
threat, mainly in the FL counties.

Otherwise, PoPs were refreshed and temps were lowered a bit.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Throughout the near term the main story will be excessive rainfall,
but severe weather will possibly make an appearance across our
western areas. Currently, our inland areas are fairly stable, the
00Z upper-air sounding indicated the presence of a couple modest,
inversions, generally under 850mb. Although these are expected to
erode away provided enhanced WAA later this morning, it explains
why we haven't seen much rain accumulation over our inland areas
overnight. With cloud bases above 5000 feet, there just isn't
enough forcing to bring moist surface air aloft into downpour-
producing clouds. This may be starting to change however, we're
now seeing higher reflectivities crossing the coastal interface,
deeper inland across our FL counties. Still stratiform in nature,
this increase in rainfall intensity may help lower cloud ceilings,
while closing the gap at the low levels between temps and dew
points.

With a synoptic pattern that favors widespread excessive rain; a
ridge to the SE and a trough to the NW, today will be characterized
as a conveyor belt of showers and storms as they move generally from
WSW to ENE. Although lapse rates won't be impressive due to a moist
atmospheric column; PWATs around or greater than 2 inches, forcing
for ascent will be provided at the synoptic scale. A messy MCS to
our west is associated with a ripple in the 500mb flow, the PV
associated with this will move through the region this morning.
Later this afternoon, a shortwave quickly moving across the central
plains on its way NE will further enhance PV across the region.
Thus, combining high moisture content with continuous synoptic
forcing for ascent along a SW to NE corridor for hours on end via
training showers/convection will lead to flooding concerns. The
concern is greatest along the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama where the
moisture axis is closest to the source (the Gulf). A flood watch is
currently in effect for these areas.

As far as severe weather goes, MLCAPE this afternoon looks to
struggle to make it beyond our FL counties. With peak values around
1500 J/kg across the FL Panhandle attention then turns to the
LLJ/shear for any signs of organized convection. Current guidance
has and LLJ across the area with winds generally around 40-50 kts,
which is decent. Now combine these two and we get a sig tor
parameter across our FL counties in the range of 1 to 3 this
afternoon. Thus, tornadoes are possible, they'll almost definitely
be rain-wrapped, making them hard to see. This is not to say
tornadoes won't be possible across SE Alabama and SW Georgia, but
the parameters don't currently look lined up well enough across
these areas.

As we move beyond the afternoon hours and into the evening and
overnight hours the main frontal passage is nearing. Southerly flow
will further enhance, possibly leading to instability that
penetrates deeper into the region. Guidance is currently uncertain
on a convective mode, as either semi-discrete or cluster are
possible. The LLJ will still be present and if the environment isn't
worked over from the afternoon activity, the potential for overnight
tornadoes this there. This time however, the threat possibly pushing
beyond the FL state line into SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

With multiple hazards possible, whether it's flash flooding, ravine
flooding, or tornadoes, make sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings through tonight.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 70s with overnight
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

The upper level disturbance and cold front will make its way
through the region throughout Sunday. Precip chances are expected
to dwindle throughout the day, with perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder. Dry weather expected by the later afternoon or early
evening, which will continue into Monday. Sunday will be our last
unseasonably warm day, with highs in the 70s. Monday's highs will
be start of a gradual decreasing trend, with temperatures peaking
in the mid to upper 60s for SE AL and SW GA and in the upper 60s
to low 70s for FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis shows the SE more or less
remaining under weak upper level troughing to near zonal flow
through much of the period. The exception could be late in the
week where we could experience weak upper level ridging.
Nonetheless, the forecast is expected to be dry during this
period. A dry cold front is expected to pass through midweek, with
surface high pressure forecast before and after that. Temperatures
during this period will gradually decrease going from above to
near normal, to around or just below normal for this time of
year. To put values to that highs will transition from the low to
mid 60s to the mid 50s and low 60s, coolest in our AL and GA
counties. For overnight lows, expect values to go from spread
across the 40s to spread across the 30s by Wednesday night, and
then begin to rebound into the mid to upper 30s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Multiple rounds of rain with embedded thunder will move across
the terminals through Sunday morning. Greatest chance of thunder
will be at ECP and TLH. Cigs are expected to lower into IFR/LIFR
this evening, but there is uncertainty on timing with potential
for VFR cigs at times as well. Greater confidence in a more solid
period of IFR/LIFR cigs overnight. Vsbys are expected to lower
further in fog, mainly at TLH and VLD. There is uncertainty in
the duration of fog as winds begin to increase ahead of a cold
front. For now, have a TEMPO group at the aforementioned sites
early Sunday morning for vsby down to 1SM. Cigs are expected to
increase after sunrise to IFR/MVFR, at least temporarily, with
highest confidence at TLH/VLD. Easterly winds will gradually
clock around to the west on Sunday morning as a cold front moves
through the region, with gusts up 20 kts at ABY, DHN, and ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through this afternoon,
as elevated winds hold due a disturbance over the region. Outside
of this morning, showers and thunderstorm chances will continue
through the weekend, some of which may produce gusty winds and
waterspouts. The storm system and associated cold front is slated
to swing through Sunday night into Monday, turning winds to the
northwest to north much of next week. Additionally, a bit of sea
fog is possible in Apalachee Bay later Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Soaking rains through Sunday morning will keep fire weather
concerns at a minimum, which are low dispersions across SE AL and
SW GA today and perhaps tomorrow for areas along the coast. A
flood watch is currently in effect through Sunday evening across
the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama where excessive rainfall is a
concern. The cold front is expected to be through the region
Sunday night into Monday, cooler and drier conditions move into
the region to begin the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

No changes were made to the Flash Food Watch that was hoisted
yesterday for our AL counties, the western FL Panhandle, and
Gadsden, Liberty, and Gulf counties of the Big Bend. Current
rainfall amounts vary across the region with areas along and west
of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers seeing the most rain. 24 hour
values across SE AL range from 0.15-1.0 inches and for the
western FL Panhandle they vary wildly from 0.10-2.2 inches.
Elsewhere values range from trace amounts to 0.50, highest near
the coast and along the aforementioned rivers.

Rainfall accumulation should mostly occur today with rain chances
tapering off Sunday. Forecast rain amounts for this period vary
from 2.0-3.5 inches of rain across southeast AL and the western FL
Panhandle, 0.75-2.25 inches for the FL Big Bend, and up in
southwest GA about 1-2.25 inches. Locally higher amounts will be
possible. Storm totals, including yesterday, for areas outside of
the flood watch will range from 1 to 3 inches while areas inside
the watch should be closer to 3 to 6 inches.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  67  75  58 /  90  70  70  10
Panama City   73  66  74  58 / 100  90  70  10
Dothan        71  65  72  51 / 100  90  50  10
Albany        70  65  72  51 / 100  90  70  10
Valdosta      72  67  75  57 /  90  70  80  20
Cross City    79  67  78  62 /  40  30  60  20
Apalachicola  73  66  73  60 /  90  70  70  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ007>019-026-027-108-
     112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ155>160.

AL...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
     for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
826 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

FLZ014-114-115-021430-
Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Franklin FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
826 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM EST/830 AM CST/...

At 826 AM EST/726 AM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of Mexico Beach, or 14 miles west of
Port St. Joe, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port St. Joe, Nine Mile, Highland View, Eleven Mile, St Joseph State
Park, Thirteen Mile, Odena, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Tilton, Jones
Homestead, Ward Ridge, Milltown, and Simmons Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2959 8522 2960 8524 2960 8527 2963 8540
      2973 8548 2988 8549 2986 8507 2978 8504
      2970 8505 2963 8510 2957 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1326Z 274DEG 23KT 2980 8554

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25-CAMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
945 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     Flash Flood      1 W Dirego Park         30.19N 85.66W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   Law Enforcement

            Bay County Sheriffs Office reports 23rd
            street becoming impassable due to flooding
            near the Golden Corral.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
946 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     Flash Flood      Edgewater Gulf Beach    30.19N 85.83W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   Law Enforcement

            Bay County Sheriffs Office reports Alf
            Coleman Rd becoming impassable near the
            beach due to flooding.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
133 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     Flood            1 SE Hiland Park        30.19N 85.62W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water over roadway on Douglas and Wakulla.

0940 AM     Flood            1 WSW Springfield       30.17N 85.62W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water over roadway on Huntington dr.

0940 AM     Flood            4 SE Bayou George       30.21N 85.50W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water over roadway on Tram Rd.

0940 AM     Flood            3 NE Gulf Lagoon Beach  30.20N 85.76W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water over roadway on Sunrise dr in Bay
            county.

0940 AM     Flood            Mexico Beach            29.94N 85.41W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water over roadway on 23rd street in Bay
            county.

0940 AM     Flood            1 N Edgewater Gulf Beac 30.20N 85.82W
12/02/2023                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water over roadway on Cabana Blvd.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
134 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

FLZ028-029-021915-
Inland Taylor FL-Lafayette FL-
134 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EST...

At 134 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Dowling Park to 9 miles
southeast of Perry. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Townsend, Chancey, Smith, Buckville, San Pedro Junction, Day,
Alton, and Mayo Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 8301 3002 8347 3026 8346 3026 8326
      3025 8324 3024 8325 3023 8324 3018 8325
      3017 8323 3015 8324 3010 8321 3010 8318
      3011 8316 3010 8313 3010 8312 3009 8311
      3008 8307 3007 8307 3002 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 274DEG 25KT 3026 8341 3004 8343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25-CAMP