River Flood Warning 15, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
842 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Shortwave trough upstream is supporting a thunderstorm complex
off the southeast coast of Louisiana. As this feature moves
eastward, showers and thunderstorms will continue developing and
moving east. Recent CAMs are wetter than going forecast and have
increased our pops and related grids as a fair amount of
convection is developing over southern Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle. Rain chances will continue into the overnight
hours.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

An upper low center over the southern Appalachians will open up
into a trough this weekend, then slowly push east into the
Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, the
big upper high over Texas will start to nose in, bringing
decreasing coverage of convection next week and a gradual upward
trend on daytime temperatures to slightly above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Convection is currently firing along a boundary from the inland FL
Panhandle to the Flint Valley of SW GA. Meanwhile, water vapor
imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern Mississippi. It
will move east this evening and bring a further blossoming of
convection, mainly along and south of a DHN-ABY line. From there,
a turn to west-northwest flow aloft will slowly push convection
south to near the Florida border by late evening. Then overnight,
nocturnal thunderstorms will fire off over the 80+ degree Gulf
waters, before pushing east across Taylor, Dixie and Lafayette
Counties.

By Friday afternoon, scattered storms will develop inland in a
moderately unstable air mass. Fast storm motions (by summer
standards) will help cells cover a larger area, so rain chances
will continue mostly in likely and categorical ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

The upper low that has been plaguing the Southeast for an eternity
will continue its northward to drift to the eastern Great Lakes
Region at the start of this period before the entire long wave
trough gets shunted eastward by a kicker system moving across the
Northern Plains over the weekend. Drier air will work into the
region from the northwest and finally give us a short-live break
from the incessant unsettled weather. Northern areas will have
little to no convection during this period. South of U.S. 84,
scattered storms will remain in the forecast thanks to the sea
breeze Friday evening and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

As the present long wave trough moves ever so slowly away from us to
the east, ridging to the west will briefly dominate keeping PoPs in
the slight to low chance category (20-30%). Temps will get back to
seasonal levels with highs in the lower 90s for most areas. That
Northern Plains low will amplify into yet another eastern U.S. long-
wave trough early in the work week. The axis will generally be east
of us which will put us into a northwest flow regime. We would need
to watch out for MCS's pushing into the region from the northwest.
Highest PoPs will be on Monday. By midweek, the heat ridge that has
been parked over the Southern Plains for a while now will extend
eastward. While this will reduce daily coverage of showers and
storms, it will also allow temperatures to rise. Daytime highs will
reach the mid 90s across most of our Florida Counties with lower 90s
to the north. Heat indices will reach or exceed 100 across many
areas in Florida from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
evening hours, but should diminish as the sun sets. Overnight
thunderstorms are forecast to affect all terminals, which could
generate gusty winds, as well as low vsbys with MVFR to IFR cigs
between the 04-10z time frame. The storms should let up by
daybreak. The DHN terminal may experience low cigs/vsbys prior to
daybreak without storms interfering. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon, with a focus moreso at
TLH and VLD terminals. Confidence for timing of thunderstorm
activity is medium.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Winds will stay out of the southwest or west through this entire
forecast. Cautionary wind speeds will remain possible into Friday
before some lessening of the wind occurs for the weekend. A slight
increase in wind speeds is forecast early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

A wet summer pattern will continue through Friday, then convective
coverage will start to decrease closer to seasonal norms this
weekend. This weekend, afternoon dispersion values will creep up,
with high dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday afternoons,
mainly north of the FLorida state line

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Additional heavy rainfall impacted the region yesterday and
overnight, resulting in localized flash flooding. Fortunately, the
heaviest amounts occurred over Apalachee Bay, nevertheless, rainfall
amounts of 7-10 inches were common right along the immediate coast
in Franklin, Taylor, and Dixie Counties which was sufficient to
cause flash flooding, even in the coastal interface.

Through 18z today, rainfall amounts have been more modest, generally
2-3 inches in portions of the SE Florida Big Bend. Even so, now that
this rain is falling over saturated ground, flooding will occur more
easily.

Through the short term, primary concerns are for flash flooding and
riverine flooding, especially in the SE Florida Big Bend. Model
guidance suggests the potential for localized totals overnight
exceeding 6 inches in this portion of the forecast area. This much
rain could cause significant flash flooding if occurring in a more
populated area like Cross City or Steinhatchee, despite the flat
terrain.

Additionally, further rainfall will lead to rises in the Aucilla,
Econfina, Fenholloway and Steinhatchee Rivers. Of particular concern
is the Steinhatchee River which continues to rise quickly today. It
is likely to rise above minor flood tonight and crest late Friday
night or early Saturday morning in the upper end of the minor flood
category. Moderate flooding cannot be ruled out, especially if
heavier rainfall amounts (>6 in) fall in the Steinhatchee basin.

Beyond Friday, rainfall potential decreases and any lingering hydro
concerns will focus on area rivers in the Fla Big Bend, which will
take some time to recede.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  86  71  89 /  80  80  30  40
Panama City   74  86  74  88 /  70  60  30  30
Dothan        68  87  68  88 /  70  60  10  10
Albany        69  86  68  88 /  70  60  20  10
Valdosta      70  84  70  88 /  70  80  30  30
Cross City    72  85  72  88 /  70  80  50  50
Apalachicola  74  84  75  86 /  80  70  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ125>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ068-069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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