High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1255 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

Surface high pressure will slide across the southern Appalachians
tonight then off the eastern Seaboard Tuesday. Further upstream, our
next low pressure system will take shape as an upper low rounds
across the Texas Big Bend towards the southern Plains and surface
low pressure deepens over southern Texas. Moisture and clouds slowly
increase west of the Apalachicola/Flint rivers later Tuesday while
southeasterly winds also begin to increase towards dusk.

Before that though, clearing skies and light winds overnight will
lead to good radiational cooling. Patchy to areas of frost is a good
possibility along and north of I-10 in the predawn hours. Lows
tonight will be around freezing in the outskirts from Dothan to
Albany with mid 30s south towards the coastal sections. Highs
Tuesday will range through the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

The severe weather threat will be focused during this time frame.
The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook for Tuesday Night has brought the
Enhanced Risk into Walton County, while the Slight Risk was nudged
slightly farther east. This is where storms have the best shot
at becoming surface based on Tue Night, while the more favorable
overlap of instability and low-level shear nearer the surface
warm front introduces the possibility for a significant tornado.
For the slight risk area outside of this, the main threats are
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. In Southeast Alabama and
the FL Panhandle, activity looks to arrive Tuesday Night into
early Wednesday, then eastward into the FL Big Bend and Southwest
GA on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the SPC Day 3 has a Marginal Risk
in place, with the expectation that more limited instability will
weaken activity in the FL Big Bend and Panhandle. Nonetheless,
damaging winds and a tornado will remain a threat. In addition,
there is the potential for advisory level 40 mph wind gusts ahead
of thunderstorms Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is
also likely and may lead to some minor flooding issues, with minor
coastal flooding also possible, both of which are detailed in the
hydrology section. Beach hazards are also likely with dangerous
rip currents and high surf.

Expect a rapid drying trend Wednesday Night with the passage of
a cold front. Temperature-wise, expect lows on Tuesday Night in
the upper 40s to lower 50s to occur around midnight. With warm
air advection underway, temps will then rise into the upper 50s
to mid-60s around sunrise Wednesday. Highs on Wed in the mid-60s
to mid-70s, falling off to the upper 30s to lower 40s Wed Night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

A dry stretch of weather is in store Thursday through Saturday,
with below average temperatures. Expect a rebound in temps on
Sunday into early next week with the approach of the next storm
system. While it's still far out, cannot rule out heavy rain /
severe weather potential for Sunday and beyond, but uncertainty
is to great at this time for further details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

Could be a light frost at inland terminals around sunrise.
Otherwise, little more than SCT mid-high level clouds are
expected through daylight hours on Tuesday. Surface winds will
clock around from NE to E-SE once the near- surface morning
inversion breaks.

Aviation weather starts to change for the worse on Tuesday
evening. Low-level flow will start to turn southeasterly in
response to a deepening surface low crossing the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Low-level moisture will start to return, affecting ECP
first with MVFR cigs on Tue evening. Later in the evening, a
strong southerly low-level jet will develop atop southeast surface
winds. Low-level wind shear will develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

A brief reductions of winds is expected this evening and into
early Tuesday before winds quickly swing clockwise and by Tuesday
afternoon are around 15 to 20 knots out of the southeast, highest
west of Apalachicola. As the next system nears late Tuesday night
and into Wednesday, expect a rapid increase in winds to advisory
levels, with gale force gusts possible and seas increasing to 5
to 9 feet. More tranquil boating conditions will not return until
Friday at the earliest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

High pressure will slide eastward Tuesday, allowing surface winds to
become southeasterly. As low pressure deepens in the southern
Plains, winds will increase beginning Tuesday evening. Wetting
rains, and a good chance for severe weather, will occur overnight
Tuesday night in southeast Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle, then spread east through the day Wednesday.
Precipitation will exit the eastern Florida Big Bend Wednesday
evening. A period of dry conditions is expected behind this low
pressure system from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

Yesterday's rains, with widespread amounts generally around 1 to 2
inches, is beneficial towards the drought. However, isolated
locations saw higher amounts around 3 to 4 inches and this has
lead to small increases across the Panhandle and across the
Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee River Basins, but at this time these
rivers will likely stay below minor flood stage. Through the next
week we'll have around a 1.5 to 3 inches of additional rain, but
these amounts are not likely to bring significant impacts to area
rivers beyond action stage. Locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday
may lead to minor poor drainage flooding.

In addition, there is the potential for coastal flooding with
the Wednesday tide cycles, especially in Apalachee Bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  55  70  41 /   0  50  90  10
Panama City   67  56  71  41 /  10  80  80  10
Dothan        59  49  68  37 /  10  80  70  10
Albany        60  49  69  38 /   0  60  90  10
Valdosta      64  52  72  41 /   0  30  80  20
Cross City    71  58  76  44 /   0  20  80  40
Apalachicola  67  58  69  42 /   0  60  90  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ750-
     752-770-772.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs