Alert archive / Florida / Gale Warnings in 2023
Gale Warning 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL
NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this gale warning at Feb 11, 2023, 4:46 AM EST. It took effect at Feb 11, 2023, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 23 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 11, 2023, 4:46 AM EST (09:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 11, 2023, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 12, 2023, 2:47 PM EST
- In force
- 23 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tallahassee, FL
The text
As transmitted.
307 WHUS72 KTAE 110946 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 446 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 GMZ750-770-111800- /O.UPG.KTAE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230213T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2100Z-230212T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- 346 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 knots and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM and Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ GMZ730-111800- /O.UPG.KTAE.SC.Y.0009.230211T2100Z-230213T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2300Z-230212T2300Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- 446 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts up to 40 knots, and seas 5 to 7 feet expected. * WHERE...Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ GMZ752-772-111800- /O.UPG.KTAE.SC.Y.0009.230211T1800Z-230213T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2100Z-230212T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 346 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots, and seas 9 to 14 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM and Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ GMZ755-765-775-111800- /O.UPG.KTAE.SC.Y.0009.230211T1800Z-230213T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2300Z-230212T2300Z/ Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 446 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 45 knots, and seas 9 to 14 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
6 follow-up statements
858 WHUS72 KTAE 111415 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 915 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 GMZ750-752-770-772-120930- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2100Z-230212T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 815 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 14 feet expected. * WHERE...Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to Apalachicola out 60 nautical miles. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ GMZ730-755-765-775-120930- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2300Z-230212T2300Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 915 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
567 WHUS72 KTAE 112102 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 402 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 GMZ750-752-770-772-121200- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 302 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 14 feet expected. * WHERE...Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to Apalachicola out 60 nautical miles. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ GMZ730-755-765-775-121200- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.230211T2300Z-230212T2300Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 402 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
781 WHUS72 KTAE 120807 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 307 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 GMZ730-755-765-775-121615- /O.EXT.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 307 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 45 knots. Seas 8 to 13 feet. Winds and seas will start to decrease this afternoon. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ GMZ750-752-770-772-121615- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 207 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 45 knots. Seas 10 to 15 feet. Winds and seas will start to decrease this afternoon. * WHERE...Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to Apalachicola out 60 nautical miles. * WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
384 WHUS72 KTAE 121537 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1037 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-122100- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 1037 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 /937 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/ ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 8 to 13 feet. Winds and seas will start to decrease this afternoon. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
537 WHUS72 KTAE 121702 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1202 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 GMZ750-752-130115- /O.CAN.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.SC.Y.0010.230212T1702Z-230213T0900Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- 1102 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to Apalachicola out 20 nautical miles. * WHEN...Until 3 AM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots, or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous conditions for small craft. These hazardous conditions may result in poor vessel handling and steering response, broaching, overturned dinghies and kayaks, slips and falls on slippery decks, rub damage along docks and seawalls, and dragging anchors. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ GMZ730-755-765-770-772-775-122100- /O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 1202 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 /1102 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/ ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 knots, with frequent gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 8 to 15 feet. Winds and seas will start to decrease this afternoon. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
156 WHUS72 KTAE 121947 MWWTAE URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 247 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 GMZ730-755-765-770-772-775-130400- /O.CAN.KTAE.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/ /O.EXA.KTAE.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230213T0900Z/ Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 247 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 /147 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/ ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Northwest winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet. * WHERE...Offshore Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to the Ochlockonee River from 20 to 60 nautical miles out, Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, and Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday. * IMPACTS...A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots, or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous conditions for small craft. These hazardous conditions may result in poor vessel handling and steering response, broaching, overturned dinghies and kayaks, slips and falls on slippery decks, rub damage along docks and seawalls, and dragging anchors. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds have diminished below Gale Warning criteria but occasional gale force gusts remain possible this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ GMZ750-752-130400- /O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230213T0900Z/ Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- 147 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet. * WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to Apalachicola out 20 nautical miles. * WHEN...Until 3 AM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots, or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous conditions for small craft. These hazardous conditions may result in poor vessel handling and steering response, broaching, overturned dinghies and kayaks, slips and falls on slippery decks, rub damage along docks and seawalls, and dragging anchors. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 11, 4:41 AM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 11, 4:41 AM EST, 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
A strengthening low pressure center will move northeast today
across the Florida Big Bend region and South-Central Georgia,
bringing risk of heavy rain, severe storms, and strong winds.
Cooler and drier air will arrive in time for Sunday. High pressure
will pass by on Monday night, with fair weather continuing through
Wednesday. A potentially significant severe weather outbreak is
possible later in the week, possibly around Thursday night. A cold
front will follow, with cooler and drier weather arriving next
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
For being so far south, an uncommonly strong upper low over
eastern Texas will move east today across southern Louisiana.
Strong dynamic lift in advance of this feature is prompting
cyclogenesis along a stalled out front over the eastern Gulf. This
deepening low will move northeast today, passing northeast across
the FL Big Bend region and southeast Georgia.
A warm front extending east of the low center will come surging
north across Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend region late this
morning. Within the warm sector, the air mass will be weakly
unstable, while a strongly veered low-level wind profile will be
present along and south of the warm front, aided by backed surface
winds flowing into the deepening low center. This will likely
support a few discrete supercells, generally along and south of a
line from Apalachicola to Tallahassee to Adel. These storms will
be capable of damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes. The main
threat will come from late morning through mid-afternoon.
Widespread rain totals of 1-2 inches are forecast today. The
heaviest rain should be over SW Georgia, where local amounts of 3
or more inches are possible. The most vulnerable areas for flash
flooding will be places from Madison FL to Lake Park GA that
received the most rain on Friday.
Once the strengthening low exits northeast this evening, strong
westerly winds will arrive. Gales are now expected over the marine
waters, and we will have to watch for strong winds over land,
especially along the coast. The day shift may need to consider a
Wind Advisory for tonight along our coastal areas, where westerly
wind gusts of 40+ mph are possible.
It looks like surf heights of 6 to 9 feet will be the result along
west-facing shores of Bay and Gulf Counties. A High Surf Advisory
will soon be in effect for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
A cooler and drier air mass will be advecting into the region at
the start of Sunday. Winds will start to decrease late Sunday, and
this trend will continue until winds go nearly calm on Monday
night. By then, a surface high pressure center will pass directly
across the tri-state region.
As cold advection tapers off on Monday, a warming trend will get
underway on Monday afternoon, following a frosty start on Monday
morning over inland locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
The main concern will be for a severe convective event, most
likely around Thursday night.
A broad and energetic upper trough will carve out near the Four
Corners region around midweek, then move east across the Southern
Plains on Thursday, with a trailing positively tilted trough
hanging back across the Mid South on Friday as the main upper low
ejects across the Great Lakes region. Models are in surprisingly
good agreement on this large-scale setup, mainly with minor timing
differences.
A trailing cold front will cross the forecast area around Thursday
night and Friday morning. Air mass modification is assured, given
a few days of low-level southerly flow and a fetch that will bring
in air sourced from oceanic regions north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile around Thursday night, strong west-southwest 500 mb flow
of 60-75 knots will support a favorable kinematic environment for
storm organization. SPC has already places areas northwest of a
Panama City-Albany line in 15-percent risk area in their Day 6
outlook valid through Thursday night, indicating a fairly high
degree of confidence in a severe weather setup.
A cooler and drier air mass will arrive for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
Very sloppy aviation weather through daylight hours today, then
improvement this evening.
A complicated scenario coming up with a deepening surface low
center passing northeast near TLH and VLD this afternoon. A
substantial round of rain, showers, and embedded thunder will
precede and accompany the low. Cigs and vsbys will come down
toward sunrise into MVFR and IFR levels, as a warm front sharpens
up preceding the low passage. A period of low-level wind shear is
expected in the hours before northerly/easterly surface winds
finally relent and quickly shift westerly late today.
Drier air will start to trickle in this evening on gusty west
winds. Rain will end. Clearing is expected this evening at all
terminals, but then some post-frontal stratus clouds could make a
brief appearance late tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
A developing low pressure center will move northeast across the
waters today, setting up highly variable winds and confused seas.
Behind the deepening low this evening, a cold front will sweep
across the waters, followed by gale-force westerlies that will
continue into Sunday. Winds will decrease Sunday night, and a high
pressure center will pass across the waters on Monday night.
Through midweek, high pressure will move to near Bermuda, and low
pressure will move out across the Southern Plains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
Widespread wetting rainfall amounts well in excess of 1 inch are
expected today, with rainfall amounts quite a bit higher for many
districts. A cooler and drier air mass will be in the process of
arriving on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday will feature mild sunny
afternoon following cool mornings, with frost possible over inland
locations.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 441 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
Freshwater:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected areawide
today, with local amounts over Southwest Georgia exceeding 3
inches. This has increased confidence that there will not be
enough rain for moderate flooding of any rivers. However, minor
riverine flooding is in the cards, most notably for the
Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee River systems.
Will continue the Flash Flood Watch as is for today, though the
western edge over northwest Florida is the most iffy and marginal
part of the watch. As trends become even more apparent, will leave
it to day shift to possibly trim the western edge of the watch.
The greatest concern for flash flooding will be in areas that
already got so much rain yesterday, such as Madison FL to Lake
Park GA. These same areas will see more thunder today, so will
need to watch closely.
Saltwater:
Strong southerly breezes over Apalachee Bay this afternoon will
increase the tidal anomaly to as high as +2.5 feet this evening.
Fortunately, the tidal anomaly will peak as the astronomical tide
is ebbing this evening toward a low tide cycle late this evening
along the coast from Saint Marks to the Suwannee River. If the
tidal anomaly is any higher than expected or comes any earlier
than expected, then minor coastal flooding would be possible. For
now, this does not appear likely, so will hold off on a Coastal
Flood Advisory.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 69 46 57 40 / 100 50 10 0
Panama City 61 47 61 42 / 100 40 10 0
Dothan 57 42 55 36 / 100 60 10 0
Albany 59 43 54 37 / 100 90 20 0
Valdosta 67 47 55 38 / 100 90 20 0
Cross City 74 51 61 40 / 100 90 30 0
Apalachicola 68 49 59 42 / 100 50 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ010>019-026>028-112-
114-115-118-127-128.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.
High Surf Advisory from 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening to 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for FLZ112-114.
GA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for GAZ123>131-143>148-
155>161.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for
GMZ730-755-765-775.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Sunday for
GMZ750-752-770-772.
&&
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...HanerIn the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 10, 11:01 PM EST, 5 hours 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1101 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
FLZ034-134-110430-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Dixie FL-
1101 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Dixie
County through 1130 PM EST...
At 1101 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Horseshoe Point, or 14 miles south of Steinhatchee, moving northeast
at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Horseshoe Point, Horseshoe Beach, Shamrock, Hines,
Jonesboro, Cross City Airport, Jena and Clara.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2946 8346 2957 8349 2967 8341 2967 8336
2974 8335 2978 8332 2981 8332 2982 8331
2982 8296 2936 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 212DEG 35KT 2947 8339
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
55-SCHOLLSpecial weather statement, Feb 10, 11:40 PM EST, 5 hours 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1140 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
FLZ029-034-110515-
Inland Dixie FL-Lafayette FL-
1140 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lafayette and northern Dixie Counties through 1215 AM EST...
At 1140 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cross City, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Shamrock, Hines, Jonesboro, Cross City Airport, Grady,
Hatch Bend, Fletcher, Fletcher Springs and Guaranto Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2983 8289 2981 8293 2980 8292 2977 8295
2976 8295 2975 8294 2957 8317 2969 8333
2970 8334 3006 8306 3003 8301 3001 8300
2999 8296 2996 8295 2996 8293 2989 8292
2990 8290 2988 8289 2988 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 221DEG 26KT 2971 8315
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
55-SCHOLLSpecial weather statement, Feb 11, 1:05 AM EST, 3 hours 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
105 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
FLZ034-134-110700-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Dixie FL-
105 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Dixie County through
200 AM EST...
At 104 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 7
miles southeast of Horseshoe Point, or 18 miles south of Cross City,
moving northeast at 30 mph. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
move onshore over the next 30 minutes. Waterspouts near or along the
coast could occur as these storms move inland.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Horseshoe Point, Suwannee, Horseshoe Beach, Shamrock,
Cross City Airport, Shired Island, Old Town, Guaranto Springs,
Eugene, Fletcher, Yellow Jacket and Fanning Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2929 8322 2954 8346 2980 8292 2976 8295
2970 8294 2970 8296 2964 8296 2963 8297
2958 8295 2959 8294 2954 8298 2947 8298
2943 8302 2940 8302 2937 8307 2935 8306
2932 8314 2929 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 229DEG 28KT 2939 8317
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
55-SCHOLLThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 8:28 PM EST | Special Marine Warning | TAE | 92 min | |
| Feb 10, 8:30 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | TAE | Dixie | 45 min |
| Feb 10, 9:03 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | TAE | Gilchrist | 42 min |
| Feb 10, 10:18 PM EST | Special Marine Warning | TAE | 87 min | |
| Feb 10, 11:01 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | TAE | Dixie | 29 min |
| Feb 10, 11:40 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | TAE | Lafayette | 35 min |
| Feb 10, 11:42 PM EST | Special Marine Warning | TAE | 93 min | |
| Feb 11, 12:23 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | TAE | Dixie, Lafayette, Madison, Taylor | 112 min |
| Feb 11, 1:05 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | TAE | Dixie | 55 min |
| Feb 11, 1:13 AM EST | Special Marine Warning | TAE | 20 min | |
| Feb 11, 4:58 AM EST | High Surf Advisory | TAE | Bay, Gulf | 40 hr |
| Feb 11, 8:22 AM EST | Wind Advisory | TAE | Bay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 10 more | 31 hr |
| Feb 11, 10:38 AM EST | Special Marine Warning | TAE | 67 min | |
| Feb 11, 12:58 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | TAE | Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon | 2 hr |
| Feb 11, 1:24 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | TAE | Madison, Taylor | 2 hr |
| Feb 11, 2:06 PM EST | Special Marine Warning | TAE | 84 min | |
| Feb 10, 8:40 PM EST | River Flood Warning | TAE | Grady, Thomas | 49 hr |
| Feb 10, 8:43 PM EST | River Flood Warning | TAE | Brooks, Lowndes | 7 days |
| Feb 11, 1:07 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | TAE | Brooks, Grady, Lowndes, Thomas | 113 min |
| Feb 11, 1:46 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | TAE | Berrien, Colquitt, Cook, Lanier | 119 min |
| Feb 11, 2:20 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | TAE | Berrien, Brooks, Cook, Lanier, Lowndes | 5 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.