Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
638 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Another day of showers and thunderstorms. The upper level trough
drawing in the westerly flow will continue to bring unsettled
weather through the term. Elevated PWATs above 2" will lead to heavy
rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding in case of slow-
movers and/or training storms. The WPC has placed the entire CWA in
a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for today. Storms
are forecast to begin offshore this morning, moving in to the FL
panhandle. As the day progresses with the daytime heating,
instability will increase inland, allowing for storms to initiate in
our AL and GA counties this afternoon. The SPC has highlighted our
GA counties in a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather due to
forecast CAPE being 2000 J/kg, DCAPE around 500 J/kg, deep layer
shear of 20-25 kts, and steep low-level lapse rates. The main
concern with today's storms will be damaging wind gusts and small
hail, particularly over our central GA counties. The afternoon
storms will be pushed south as a frontal boundary moves through the
CWA during the day. Thunderstorm activity should diminish after the
sun sets this evening. High PoPs today around 80 to 90 percent,
starting along the panhandle coast and expanding inland with the
help of the front.

Temperatures today will be a little "cooler" due to the rain and
cloud cover with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices
below 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

As a broad upper level trough lifts north and weakens through the
beginning of the week, drier air aloft will filter into the
region from the north. Shower and storm activity will decrease
markedly from the weekend period with most activity confined to
our marine zones in the morning and then our Florida zones in the
afternoon. By Tuesday, further reductions in deep-layer moisture
should lead to only isolated showers across the area in the
afternoon. With shower chances decreasing, expect temperatures to
warm up from the lower 90s on Monday into the mid 90s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

A return to a more typical summertime pattern is expected in the
long term as weak upper level flow develops. At the surface, the
Bermuda high builds back westward, bringing east and
southeasterly flow back to the area at the low to mid levels. This
will allow a more typical summertime pattern to develop with
scattered showers and storms each afternoon and high temperatures
remaining warm in the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Low cigs and vsbys with MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to
affect DHN, ABY, and VLD until around 13/14Z. Showers and
thunderstorms along the coast and pushing onshore affecting the
ECP and TLH terminals through the afternoon. All terminals can
expect some VCTS this afternoon through the evening. Cigs may fall
to MVFR during thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Elevated south/southwesterly flow around 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon will lead to 2 to 3 feet seas. Main marine concerns will
be the elevated winds and seas through Monday morning, and fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms in the morning and overnight
hours through Tuesday morning. Winds will let up by Monday
afternoon and generally become south and southeasterly by the
later part of the upcoming week. Expect seas to lower to around 1
to 2 feet as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

High rain chances are expected today but we will begin to see
drier weather for Monday as we then head into a more typical
summertime pattern with diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures today will be in the upper 80s with heat indices
generally below 100, but temps are expected to rise back to the
mid and upper 90s during the week with heat indices around 100, so
be sure to prepare for that. Otherwise, there are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

A wet pattern looks to continue through the remainder of the
weekend, and into Monday for the Southeast Big Bend of Florida.
Isolated flash flooding is the largest concern, in addition to a
low potential for training storms. Widespread forecast totals of
around 1 inches of rainfall are expected today through Monday;
however, isolated areas will likely see higher amounts, especially
near the coast where rain chances are higher. WPC has forecast a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the weekend for much
of the forecast area, and into Monday for the SE Big Bend of
Florida. Much of these storms are being fueled by an extremely
moist environment, which is expected to remain across the area
through Monday morning before much drier air pushes into the
region behind an exiting frontal boundary.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  73  90  73 /  90  40  50  10
Panama City   87  75  90  76 /  90  50  50  10
Dothan        86  71  90  70 /  80  30  20   0
Albany        87  72  90  71 /  80  30  20   0
Valdosta      89  72  90  72 /  80  40  50  10
Cross City    90  75  88  74 /  80  70  90  20
Apalachicola  86  76  88  77 /  90  60  70  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Bunker