Extreme Wind Warning 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
302 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Hurricane Idalia, now forecast to reach category 4 strength at
landfall, will catastrophically impact the majority of our Apalachee
Bay counties this morning. This is an exceptionally dangerous
situation, especially for our coastal FL Big Bend counties where
storm surge and winds will be at their highest. Conditions are
expected to continue deteriorating through the morning and last
through the majority of the day. If you are still along our
Apalachee Bay coastline, the window to leave is closing fast.

Here is a summary of the expected impacts today.

Storm Surge:

Life threatening storm surge is forecast across our coastal FL Big
Bend with an increase up to 16 feet possible for coastal Taylor,
Jefferson, and Dixie counties. For coastal Wakulla, up to 12 feet is
possible. Lastly, coastal Franklin may see up to 8 feet and up to 5
feet along coastal Gulf county. This does NOT take wave heights on
top of the surge into account, which will also increase the overall
flooding risk. Roads will be washed out and locations may be
rendered inhabitable for an extended period of time.

Wind:

Life threatening winds are expected within our FL Big Bend counties
with potentially catastrophic conditions within close proximity to
the center track of Idalia. Along the coast, the forecast winds will
be equivalent to that of an EF-2 tornado and will destroy poorly
built structures and even cause considerable damage to well-built
structures. Mobile homes will likely be completely destroyed by
winds of this caliber. Additionally, flying projectiles will be
extremely dangerous and contribute to structural damage. Winds will
decrease further inland due to surface friction, though the wind
threat will remain with high-end tropical storm to hurricane force
winds expected to continue far inland.

Heavy Rain:

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat with this system as 5 to 8
inches are expected with isolated higher amounts (up to 12")
possible. Flash flooding is a concern with many road closures with
some weakened or washed out. Driving conditions will become
dangerous.

Tornadoes:

A tornado threat exists across the easternmost section of our CWA,
particularly our eastern FL Big Bend counties and far southern GA
counties. Climatologically, a favorable supercellular environment
tends to exist within the outer rainbands of hurricanes, especially
in the northeast quadrant. Although, they can exist anywhere within
these storms so it is important to stay alert. Scattered tornadoes
greatly hinder the execution of emergency plans and may result in
localized areas of greater damage. Additionally, TC tornadoes lead
to a quite complex and exceptionally dangerous situation when
flooding via storm surge and/or heavy rainfall is present.

When looking at the forecast cone it is important to not focus on
the center line as storm impacts extend far beyond the center and
even outside the cone.

You can also check for updates at the NHC webpage at
www.hurricanes.gov along with hurricane preparedness tips at
www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep.

Conditions will improve by the end of today, and tomorrow should
return to a more typical summer pattern with afternoon chances of
showers and thunderstorms, highest near the coast.

If you were unable to evacuate and are in the path of this storm,
you are in our thoughts today, and we wish everyone the best of
luck. Stay safe out there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

With the exit of Idalia, high pressure and dry air
will once again become dominant. Skies will begin to clear with low
90s expected on Thursday and upper 80s on Friday, an extremely
welcomed and calm regime. Each day may feature some seabreeze storms
with 40-60% PoP's within our FL counties and 20-30% across our AL
and GA counties Thursday. On Friday, PoP's will increase once again
with 50-70% across our FL counties and 30-60% across our AL and GA
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Upper ridging will continue building over the area,
ushering in even more dry air thus limiting storms to our coastal
regions this weekend into early next week. High temperatures through
the long term will range from the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Hurricane Idalia continues to rapidly intensify as it moves
quickly north-northeast across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Idalia currently has sustained winds of 120mph with higher gusts
(as of 2AM EDT) and is currently positioned about 140 miles south
of KTAE. The hurricane will likely continue to intensify until
landfall somewhere in the Big Bend of Florida. The hurricane will
impact TAF sites through the morning with powerful winds and
squalls with the most likely impacts at KTAE and KVLD. In fact,
the core may get close to KVLD and the potential for hurricane
force winds at this site is increasing. Conditions deteriorate
rapidly towards sunrise along the coast then spreading inland
through the morning hours. TAF sites west of Tallahassee will not
experience nearly as bad of impacts with wind gusts likely
remaining below tropical storm force. KTAE will likely experience
a few hours of solid tropical storm force winds during the early
to mid morning hours. IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected
during this period as well, especially at KTAE and KVLD.

The hurricane will move quickly to the northeast away from the
area by afternoon with improving conditions anticipated. We will
continue to closely monitor the progress of Idalia and provide
additional TAF updates as necessary. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

At 3AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Idalia was located about
100 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida, and was moving north at 14
mph. Idalia is forecast to move northward and north- northeastward
at an increasing forward speed today. Idalia is expected to continue
strengthening up until it makes landfall. Landfall is expected along
the Big Bend coast early today as a category 4 hurricane. Conditions
over the northeast Gulf will continue deteriorating through the
morning and last through the majority of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

With hurricane Idalia passing through the region today, RH
will drastically increase with an increase in storms as well. Gusty
and erratic winds with lightning are expected within and near any of
these storms. Dispersions along the FL Big Bend will become quite
high as a result of high transport winds, though the expected rain
in this region will hinder any fire wx concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Wet conditions are expected ahead of the approach of Idalia
thanks to a weak boundary interacting with a moist airmass.
Forecast amounts from today through Wednesday night are mostly
4-8" (isolated higher, up to 12") and should focus near the storm
track. Flash flooding is possible near the track and a flood watch
has been issued.

The biggest hydrologic concern is the potential for significant
to life-threatening storm surge, especially across the often
vulnerable coastal Apalachee Bay.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  72  91  73 / 100  30  50  40
Panama City   90  76  90  76 /  60  40  60  60
Dothan        84  70  90  71 /  70  20  30  30
Albany        78  71  89  70 / 100  30  20  20
Valdosta      79  71  89  70 / 100  30  30  30
Cross City    85  75  91  74 / 100  50  70  60
Apalachicola  88  77  89  77 /  90  50  70  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ014>019-026>029-034-114-
     115-118-127-128-134.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ014>016-026-114.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-
     134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ125>131-144>148-156>161.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ125>131-144>146-156-157.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ147-148-158>161.

AL...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-752-770.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-755-765-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...JLH/NWS Mobile
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Worster

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>