Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 921

June 2, 202311 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2023, 2:18 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 2, 2023, 2:18 PM CDT (19:18 UTC)
Expired
Jun 2, 2023, 3:45 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 253...254

Counties Andrews County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 18 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2023-06-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1081 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2023-06-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 162 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1081 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-204 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
975 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
111 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

552 
ACUS11 KWNS 021918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021918 
TXZ000-NMZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the Permian Basin and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...254...

Valid 021918Z - 022045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253, 254 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for very large to giant hail and a couple of
tornadoes will continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Intense supercells are ongoing at 1915 UTC near Fort
Stockton, TX, and also just east of Hobbs, NM. The 18Z MAF sounding
modified for recent surface obs depicts a very favorable hail
environment, with MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg and sufficient
deep-layer shear for supercells. The ongoing supercells will
continue to pose a threat for very large to giant hail as they
spread east/southeastward through the afternoon. 

Tornado reports have been received from each of this pair of
supercells. While low-level shear/SRH will likely remain somewhat
marginal, favorable low-level thermodynamics and the presence of
ongoing intense supercells will continue to support some tornado
threat through the afternoon. 

Another supercell has recently developed across extreme southeast
NM, and additional supercell development will be possible through
the afternoon along a weak surface trough, and also potentially
along the trailing outflow from the Fort Stockton supercell.

..Dean.. 06/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33100247 33060200 32560184 31820167 31370156 30580149
            30250223 30590303 31000322 32210338 32870306 33100247

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 2, 10:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 25 more86 min
Jun 2, 11:26 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 35 more9 hr
Jun 2, 11:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 11 more85 min
Jun 2, 11:57 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector and 17 more8 hr
Jun 2, 1:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Hartley, Sherman113 min
Jun 2, 3:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 16 more97 min
Jun 2, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCTerrell, Val Verde94 min
Jun 2, 4:54 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCEdwards, Kimble, Kinney, Menard, Real, Schleicher and 3 more6 hr
Jun 2, 5:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Donley and 14 more2 hr
Jun 2, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Edwards, Kerr, Kimble, Kinney, Real and 5 more90 min
Jun 2, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Coke, Fisher, Foard and 12 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.