Mesoscale Discussion 913

Issued

Jun 1, 2023, 1:45 PM MDT (19:45 UTC)

Expired

Jun 1, 2023, 4:15 PM MDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Deaf Smith County, TX, Parmer County, TX

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

720 
ACUS11 KWNS 011946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011945 
TXZ000-NMZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central New Mexico into west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011945Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and locally severe
gusts should increase during the next few hours across parts of
east-central New Mexico into west Texas.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convection is evolving
along the higher terrain in east-central New Mexico this afternoon
-- where a feed of moist easterly low-level flow (upper 50s to lower
60s dewpoints) is impinging on the area. While surface temperatures
are somewhat cool from earlier convection, the rich moisture beneath
steepening midlevel lapse rates should support an uptick in
convective intensity during the next few hours. This surface-based
instability, coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear (35-40 kt
of effective shear) should support a few organized storms including
the potential for supercells capable of isolated large hail and
locally severe gusts. The overall severe threat over this area may
remain too isolated for a watch; however, the severe threat should
increase over areas farther east through the afternoon.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35320255 35130244 34300278 33810295 33420315 33230340
            33150395 33160440 33310472 33520495 33760521 34260552
            34590573 35130599 35450614 35820613 36000594 36070559
            35920475 35770434 35550370 35320255

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.