Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 802

May 16, 202324 counties in North Carolina; 21 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2023, 2:34 PM EDT for 24 counties in North Carolina; 21 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2023, 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2023, 4:30 PM EDT
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 45 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Bland County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Wythe County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226May 16, 4:00 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 964 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 4:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe and 42 more	8 hr
May 16, 7:05 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Burke, Cabarrus and 22 more	115 min
May 16, 12:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and 3 more	8 hr
May 16, 3:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and 3 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2023 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2023 Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.