Mesoscale Discussion 621

Issued

Apr 26, 2023, 9:43 AM CDT (14:43 UTC)

Expired

Apr 26, 2023, 11:45 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

Counties Love County, OK, Archer County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Jack County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

142 
ACUS11 KWNS 261443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261443 
OKZ000-TXZ000-261645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...north TX...far southern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261443Z - 261645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual storm intensification is expected through late
morning across the Red River Valley.  Timing for an eventual tornado
watch across much of north TX is a bit uncertain (~11am-2pm). 
Marginally severe hail/localized gusts are the primary threats
through 12pm.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of sub-severe
thunderstorms straddling the Red River near Wichita Falls.  This
activity is located both near outflow/a composite front draped over
western north TX and extending into the TX South Plains and in the
northern portion of a warm frontal zone.  Surface temperatures
during the mid morning range from the lower 50s near the Red River
to near 60 deg F in the Metroplex.  Richer low-level moisture is
located farther south near Waco where mid 60s surface dewpoints
currently reside.  

Visible satellite imagery shows extensive stratus across central
into north TX.  Stronger heating will be considerably hindered
except for areas west of the Metroplex along I-20 where it appears
gravity waves are at least acting to partially disturb the stratus
near Abilene.  It is within this corridor near Abilene where a moist
axis is evident in surface observations and cloud streets are noted
in the stratocumulus field, that greater potential instability will
reside through the early afternoon.  Although surface heating will
be limited, gradual theta-e advection in the low levels beneath cool
mid-level temperatures will combine to lead to destabilizing airmass
across north TX.  As a result, moderate buoyancy via elevated
parcels (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop through
midday across near the Metroplex.  A gradual uptick in storm
intensity may occur through late morning and a possible marginally
severe hail/localized gust risk could materialize.

..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33969635 33709624 33259634 33069670 33009765 32599839
            32729903 33039926 33289896 33479879 33789867 33789790
            34019788 34099759 33969635

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.