Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023
Mesoscale Discussion 511
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 13, 2023, 5:13 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 13, 2023, 5:13 PM CDT (22:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 13, 2023, 7:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 48 counties
Decatur County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Norton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Rock County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Beaver County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2135 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 8 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 293 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
262
ACUS11 KWNS 132213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132213
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023
Areas affected...portions of central Nebraska into western Kansas
and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132213Z - 140045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or an instance of large hail may
accompany any of the stronger storms that can develop. The severe
threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A mix of agitated cumulus and low-topped convection
continues to percolate along surface lee trough, where the diurnal
heating of a dry boundary layer is contributing to robust low-level
mixing. Up to this point, convection has struggled to intensify.
Nonetheless, low-level lapse rates up to 10 C/km (per 21Z
mesoanalysis) would support ample evaporative cooling and associated
downward momentum transport with any stronger cells that can
develop. Steep mid-level lapse rates may also encourage an instance
or two of large hail. Furthermore, strong evaporative cooling could
also lead to efficient cold pool production/mergers which would only
increase the chances for severe gusts. Around 40 F surface dewpoints
exist across central Nebraska, coinciding with slightly stronger
mid-level flow and associated deep-layer shear, where there is a
relatively greater chance of storm organization into the evening
hours. The overall severe threat should temper with nocturnal
cooling. The severe threat is also expected to remain sparse, and a
WW issuance is unlikely.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34500217 37580185 41290100 42900032 43009989 42919947
41869930 39369991 37060022 35260093 34620125 34500217Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.