Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 3, 2023, 5:04 PM CDT for 41 counties in Kansas; Harper County, Woods County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2023, 5:04 PM CDT (22:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 3, 2023, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch needed soon
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 43 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Meade County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Seward County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Washington County, KS, Harper County, OK, Woods County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -302 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1166 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 258 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
780
ACUS11 KWNS 032205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032204
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-032300-
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023
Areas affected...portions of central KS and far northwest OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 032204Z - 032300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Deepening convection will likely organize into a mixed
mode of supercells and line segments with a risk for all hazards. A
new watch will be issued shortly.
DISCUSSION...East of a dryline/sfc confluence zone, diurnal heating
and ascent from an advancing mid-level trough has removed much of
the inhibition over parts of central KS and far northwest OK.
Initial storms have quickly deepened and should continue to do so
with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available. Increasing deep-layer shear
of 40-50 kt, on top of an increasing low-level jet, will support
storm organization into supercells and short line segments. Eventual
upscale growth into one or more linear clusters appears likely as
the cold front begins to surge eastward after dark. With a favorable
overlap of shear and buoyancy supporting organized storms, damaging
winds and hail (some 2+ in) appear likely with the strongest storms.
Strong low-level shear may also support a tornado or two, but is
more conditional upon supercells remaining discrete. Given the rapid
increase in severe risk, a new watch will be needed shortly.
..Lyons/Hart.. 10/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 38140110 38720002 39269923 39829876 40069814 40119714
39409677 38219703 37389746 36889784 36649869 36649983
36800078 37200107 38140110SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 7:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 95 min |
| Oct 3, 12:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove and 17 more | 116 min |
| Oct 3, 1:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Greeley and 17 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 3, 3:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Ness and 9 more | 119 min |
| Oct 3, 5:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Jewell, Mitchell | 6 hr |
| Oct 3, 5:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 23 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 2, 9:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cimarron | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.