Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 2155

September 16, 202311 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 16, 2023, 5:38 AM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 16, 2023, 5:38 AM CDT (10:38 UTC)
Expired: Sep 16, 2023, 6:45 AM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch: 95%

Counties Coke County, TX, Concho County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Irion County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685Sep 16, 5:40 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1339 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1473 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 15, 8:21 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Deaf Smith, Floyd, Hale and 4 more	114 min
Sep 15, 10:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Borden, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Gaines and 9 more	2 hr
Sep 16, 1:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Dickens and 11 more	89 min
Sep 16, 5:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Irion and 11 more	5 hr
Sep 16, 7:48 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Coleman, Concho, Kimble, McCulloch, Mason and 5 more	87 min
Sep 16, 8:51 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Burnet, Concho, Gillespie, Lampasas, Llano and 5 more	84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023 Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.