Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 23, 2023, 2:07 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 23, 2023, 2:07 PM MDT (20:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 23, 2023, 4:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 25 counties
Baca County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1822 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -168 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1283 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 217 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.0
The text
As transmitted.
477
ACUS11 KWNS 232007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232007
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023
Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas...the
western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...northeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 232007Z - 232230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying supercells and small organizing
clusters of storms appear possible by 5-7 PM CDT, if not earlier.
DISCUSSION...A seasonably strong belt of west-southwesterly
mid-level flow (40-50 kt around 500 mb) has nosed across the
southern Rockies through the Raton Mesa vicinity and adjacent Great
Plains, downstream of troughing progressing across the eastern Great
Basin and southern Rockies. Forcing for ascent associated with the
latter feature appears likely to aide ongoing convection now forming
across and to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
During the next few hours, it appears that initially high-based
thunderstorms will continue to form and advect off the higher
terrain, before beginning to intensify near the eastward mixing
dryline, northeast through east of the Raton Mesa vicinity into the
western Texas Panhandle, as early as 22-00Z. In the presence of
strong deep-layer shear and large mixed-layer CAPE (supported by
seasonably high moisture content and steep lapse rates), models
indicate that the environment will become conducive to a mix of
discrete supercells and small upscale growing clusters posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level
hodographs may remain modest until after dark, it is possible that
the strongest discrete storms may also be accompanied by the risk
for tornadoes.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35350277 36320330 37890269 38810347 39530281 38170130
36880149 35720127 34620118 33680183 34390251 35350277SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Prowers | 7 hr |
| Jun 23, 4:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Prowers | 116 min |
| Jun 22, 6:09 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 5 more | 66 min |
| Jun 22, 7:02 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron | 58 min |
| Jun 23, 9:21 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer, Garvin and 7 more | 114 min |
| Jun 23, 10:18 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 19 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 23, 11:47 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 14 more | 118 min |
| Jun 23, 2:43 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Cherokee, Dallas, Ellis, Freestone, Henderson and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 23, 3:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Freestone and 9 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.