Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2023, 9:26 AM CDT for 12 parishes in Louisiana; 29 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2023, 9:26 AM CDT (14:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2023, 11:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 41 counties
Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2276 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 589 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.8
The text
As transmitted.
826
ACUS11 KWNS 151427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151426
MSZ000-LAZ000-151600-
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern/central MS and southeastern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 151426Z - 151600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing severe hail and damaging wind threat will
likely warrant watch issuance this morning. A tornado or two also
appears possible.
DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing this morning across central
MS. The 12Z sounding from JAN shows ample MUCAPE (nearly 3000 J/kg),
with a residual cap around 700 mb. Strong flow at mid/upper levels
is still promoting 50+ kt of deep-layer shear, and supercells posing
a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) appear
possible given the steep mid-level lapse rates present.
Severe/damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that can form
and spread east-southeastward. The airmass downstream of this
ongoing activity is already strongly unstable, and the threat for
severe thunderstorms will likely increase this morning. Watch
issuance will be needed soon. The tornado threat is a bit more
uncertain given somewhat veered low-level flow. But, there may still
be enough low-level shear for a tornado or two.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32339129 32198892 31528855 30538855 30218967 30269143
31109162 31789184 32339129SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 7:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Morehouse, Richland, Tensas and 1 more | 65 min |
| Jun 14, 7:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Morehouse, Richland, Tensas and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 15, 1:35 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Union, West Carroll | 115 min |
| Jun 15, 6:46 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, West Carroll | 119 min |
| Jun 15, 9:41 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Catahoula, Concordia, East Feliciana, Franklin, Jefferson, Orleans and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 15, 12:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Saint Helena, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington | 83 min |
| Jun 15, 3:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington | 85 min |
| Jun 14, 9:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Attala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Holmes, Humphreys and 15 more | 113 min |
| Jun 15, 3:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jackson | 83 min |
| Jun 15, 1:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcorn, Benton, Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lafayette, Lee and 7 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.