Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
256 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A stalled frontal boundary will linger across
northern Utah through Saturday, while southern Utah remains hot,
dry and locally breezy. High pressure will strengthen across the
region over the weekend into early next week bringing a warming
trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A stalled frontal boundary
remains draped across the forecast area this afternoon, with a hot
and very dry airmass to the south, while very warm and dry
conditions persist to the north. Just enough moisture north of
this boundary is once again supporting isolated high based
convection this afternoon, which is a but more robust than what
was observed Thursday. This will continue into the evening hours
before largely dissipating overnight.

Mid level ridging will amplify across the forecast area Saturday
bringing a warming trend of 3-5F areawide. Lingering moisture will
continue to support a threat of isolated convection mainly near
the Idaho border Saturday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...Hot and dry conditions are
expected to continue through at least the next week as a ridge
centered over the Southwest will strengthen and move northward.
There is a shortwave that will move through the area Sunday and
Monday. This system is not expected to have much impact, other
than increasing high level clouds across the CWA and wind speeds
in southern and central Utah. The current forecast has winds in
southern Utah getting up to 30kts-35kts. Heading into the weekend,
there is a 20% chance that a trough moves through the northern
Rockies. While this system is not expected to bring any moisture
to the area, temperatures could be slightly less warm than
forecasted. The other 80% supports a strengthening ridge which
would continue this stretch of hot and dry conditions.

Temperatures across the area will be up to 5 degrees F above
normal. This means that temperatures in northern and central
valleys are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s, while areas
near Lake Powell and Lower Washington County can expect to see
temperatures well over 100 degrees F and approaching 110 degrees
F. With subsidence aloft, cloud cover will be pretty limited
throughout the period. Overall, hot, dry, and mostly clear
conditions are expected through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly flow is likely to push across
the airfield this afternoon by 00z, though there is still
lingering uncertainty in precise timing. The lake breeze boundary
may settle across mid-field, with northwest winds to the north and
southeast winds to the south. Northwest winds will then prevail
until a shift to southeasterly around 04-05z, though there is a
15% likelihood that this transition occurs as late as 07z. VFR
conditions will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms across far northern UT and southwest WY may produce
gusty and erratic outflow winds this afternoon, likely ending
after 03z. Otherwise, expect largely light, diurnally-driven winds
and VFR conditions across the forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A stationary front remains draped across central
Utah this afternoon, with a hot and dry air mass in place across
southern Utah, and slightly elevated humidity along with isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the north. This setup will
continue through Saturday, resulting in another day of hot, dry
and locally breezy conditions across southern Utah with marginal
to poor overnight RH recovery. Slightly higher RH across northern
Utah will help fuel isolated to scattered high based showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.

High pressure will strengthen across the region Sunday resulting
in a warming trend of 3 to 5 degrees across all areas. A weak
weather system will cross the area late Sunday night into Monday.
No precipitation is expected with this system, however an increase
in winds across southern Utah Monday will bring the potential for
critical fire weather conditions anywhere fuels are sufficiently
dry. The hot and dry airmass will remain in place through the
duration of next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Seaman/Cecava/Cunningham

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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