Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
333 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A drier, more stable airmass will continue to spread
into the state and remain in place through much of next week. A few
showers or thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northern Utah through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...Drier conditions have spread into
the area today underneath a southwesterly flow aloft. Latest PWAT
analysis indicates 0.8-0.9 inches along the ID border, and between
0.5-0.7 inches elsewhere. Coincident with the lingering moisture
pool, SBCAPE values are currently near 2kJ/kg along the Idaho
border, whereas more modest instability (SBCAPE less than 1kJ/kg)
exists from the southern half of the GSL southward. Expect
relatively strong convection to remain ongoing near the Idaho border
through this evening, while weaker and isolated convection can be
expected over the Uintas and Book Cliffs. Additionally, a few weak
cells may move into the northwest deserts near KENV this evening.

The airmass is expected to continue to trend a bit drier tomorrow.
However, there is a bit more support for ascent due to an upstream
shortwave trough that will be lifting across Nevada into Utah. This
may lead to greater coverage of convection across Utah tomorrow
(still limited to mainly northern Utah), but these storms are not
expected to produce significant rainfall. Otherwise, a general
warming trend is expected, although afternoon max temperatures will
remain near to below climatological normals.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...The extended forecast period remains
largely unchanged as the end of the weekend brings isolated showers
and storms to the northern portion of the county warning area ahead
of a growing high pressure ridge. This aforementioned ridge will
become more dominant over the entire Great Basin region to start the
work week, introducing much more dryer and cooler conditions.
However passing systems to the south could bring some enhanced winds
to southern portions of Utah that when mixed with the hot and dry
conditions could lead to areas nearing Red Flag Warning criteria. We
will continue to monitor and update on that front.

The retrograding high pressure ridge well to our south will hold
through the beginning half of the work week before model guidance is
favored in the system beginning to track northward. This could bring
back better moisture and dynamics that could lead to a wetter second
half of the work week and thus likely flash flood potential for
southern Utah.

Otherwise much of the extended forecast shall be pleasant with
moderate afternoon highs with valleys in the upper 80s and low 90s
while far southern UT remains around 100F. Mostly clear and blue
skies and dry weather in most areas as we trek further into August.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwest winds expected to change to southeast
drainage winds between 04Z and 06Z. There is a slight chance (30%)
that this wind change happens after 06Z due to outflow winds from
storms near the Idaho border. Northwest winds expected to come back
around 18Z Saturday. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible for far northern Utah, otherwise isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible across higher terrain locations in northern
and central Utah. The isolated storms will be done around 03Z while
the storms up by the UT/ID border could remain until 06Z. When
encountering these storms, winds could be gusty and erratic at
times. Other than these storms, expect mainly clear skies, VFR
conditions, and diurnal winds through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier airmass has spread into the area and will
remain in place through at least the middle of next week. Even so,
generally isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain
possible, mainly over the higher terrain of northern Utah. That
said, wetting rain potential will continue to decrease over the next
few days. Main concerns going forward are lowering humidities, with
min RH dropping into the low teens to single digits across the
southern half of Utah with poor overnight recoveries. Additionally,
winds will increase from Sunday through midweek, especially across
southern Utah. Critical fire weather conditions may develop on
Sunday near the Arizona border, but should remain isolated/marginal.
Stronger winds are currently forecast towards the midweek timeframe
which could result in a better chance of critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Cheng/Selbig/Cecava

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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