Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
236 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the state
this evening with additional chances for thunderstorms tomorrow
and Wednesday. Increasing southerly winds are forecast mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Through 00z next Tuesday)...The moisture influx into
Utah has arrived this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast through early this evening with threats for gusty winds,
blowing dust, hail, heavy rain and/or flash flooding associated
with these thunderstorms. Supportive dynamics are in place across
northern Utah whereas in the stronger thunderstorms, or their
outflow boundaries, there is a 70% chance for wind gusts of 50 to
70 mph. These threats will decrease by midnight. Between 6 pm and
9 pm, a second round of thunderstorms are forecast along the
UT/AZ. Excessive heat and heat headlines will expire later this
evening after peak heating of the day has passed.

For tomorrow and into Wednesday, scattered thunderstorms are once
again forecast across central and southern Utah as little change
to the overall weather pattern is noted. There are less chances
for thunderstorms across northern Utah when compared to today.
Temperatures tomorrow will still be quite warm, in fact warmer in
some spots in southern Utah, but should stay below thresholds to
warrant excessive heat headlines.

Toward the latter half of the week, a drying trend begins to be
noted in forecast models. The weather pattern does not change much
though and we'll continue to note high pressure centered to the
south and east. At the moment, chances for thunderstorms are
decreased in comparison to early this week but as the days go on
lets see what the trend in the forecast is. Cluster means are
beginning to show some differences in their output by early next
week. While a majority of members (70%) show an a trough of low
pressure off the west coast, the other 30% of the ensemble
members only build an area of high pressure over the northwest. If
the latter came to fruition, warmer temperatures and drier
conditions can be expected. But as it stands in the forecast
today, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain across
southern and eastern Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Moisture to yield isolated to scattered
convection through late evening into the early portion of the
overnight hours. Aside from impact of precipitation, guidance
suggests a period of gusty outflow crosswinds, with timing most
likely between ~01-03z. Precip will wane thereafter, with lighter
southerly winds expected to redevelop. Some VFR cloud cover
lingers, and northwesterly lake breeze develops by early tuesday
afternoon. Tuesday precipitation chances anticipated to be lower.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Moisture streaming
into the region will yield isolated to scattered afternoon convective
development. Primary threat will be lightning and gusty erratic
outflow winds in close enough vicinity to convection. Precipitation
will begin to wane by late evening into the overnight hours, with
lingering moisture to result in generally SCT to BKN VFR cloud
cover.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms across much of the region
are forecast through early this evening with wetting rains possible
in some of the heavier thunderstorms. Threats for gusty winds as
well as outflow winds are forecast this evening as well especially
across northern Utah zones. Tomorrow, chances for thunderstorms
will decrease in the north but remain scattered in central and
southern Utah. All of this results from increasing monsoonal
flow across the region and south to southwest flow in place.
Most zones note an increase in RH values however zones 489 and
494 remain critically dry. That said, wind gusts in these areas
are not forecast to be particularly strong this evening or
tomorrow evening. Gusts around 25 mph are expected in these
areas. Speaking of wind gusts, a brief lull in the wind field is
expected for Tuesday across the region before winds begin to
increase Wednesday through Friday. South to southwest winds are
forecast during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts upwards
of 30 to 35 mph with the strongest winds expected on Thursday.
These winds will be strongest across the southwest Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ101-
     102-104-105-131.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ106-115-116-121-
     129-130.

WY...None.
&&

NDeSmet/Warthen

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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