Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
418 AM MDT Sun May 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system spinning over Nevada will
maintain unsettled conditions across the eastern Great Basin
today. High pressure aloft will become established through much of
next week, bringing above normal temperatures to the region.
Lingering moisture will remain in place through much of the week
ahead, bringing isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms over the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...An upper low spinning across
central NV early this morning has both induced a favorable
downslope wind environment across northern Utah, as well as
allowed an anomalously moist air mass to advect across the
forecast area.

First up, easterly downslope winds developed across northern Utah
north of I-80 late Saturday evening, and peaked in the low to mid
60 mph range overnight across the eastern Cache Valley as well as
along the Wasatch Front from Brigham City southward to Farmington.
Over the past couple of hours 700mb flow has begun to back and
slowly weaken, and although wind gusts are occasionally reaching
the 50 mph range, it appears the weaker support aloft means the
event has peaked. As this flow continues to back and weaken
through mid morning, a lingering easterly gradient will continue
to allow for gusty east winds, but likely below warning and
eventually below advisory thresholds. Will hold onto the going
High Wind Warning for now, but monitor observations and
potentially cancel these headlines early once winds have subsided.

With the anomalously moist air mass in place through today,
coupled with broad large scale ascent along the downshear side of
the upper low, numerous rounds of showers will continue to lift
across the forecast area. Scattered thunderstorms will develop by
early afternoon as daytime heating allows the air mass to
destabilize.

The upper low will retrograde into the Pacific Northwest tonight,
allowing mid level heights to rise as an upper ridge begins to
become established across the region. This ridge will become the
dominant feature through the remainder of the short term period,
allowing temperatures to run roughly 10 degrees above climo
through the upcoming week. Lingering moisture will maintain a
chance for terrain driven showers and thunderstorms Monday, with a
downward trend heading into midweek.

.LONG TERM (After 1Z Tuesday)...Ensemble guidance is in very good
agreement maintaining the upper ridge across the region with
anomalously high heights through the upcoming week. Uncertainty
later in the upcoming week centers around the placement of an
upper low forecast to develop across northern Baja/northwest
Mexico. Depending on where this low is positioned, moisture may
spread northward across the forecast area heading into next
weekend. At this point confidence is low in how this will play
out, and have gone with an NBM forecast through the extended
period.

&&

..AVIATION...KSLC...Difficult wind direction forecast today as
generally light speeds are forecast. Wind directions ranging from
090 to 210 are possible this morning with a more likely southerly
wind this afternoon forecast. The other wrench here is the chance
for rain showers this morning; which can further create erratic wind
direction. This chance will be around for much of the day; though
thunderstorms are unlikely today.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds have calmed considerably
from stronger speeds overnight and will be on a decreasing trend
through the morning across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. We
still see breezy conditions continue, however, at LGU and EVW for a
few more hours. The story today otherwise will be the chance for
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm on station into the early
evening. More widespread showers are expected this morning across
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.

A chance for showers and thunderstorms across southern Utah
terminals will exist through early this evening. Briefly gusty winds
will be the primary threats here otherwise mid to high based clouds
are forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system drifting westward across
Nevada will maintain an anomalously moist air mass across the
eastern Great Basin through tonight. As such, showers and
scattered thunderstorms will continue through much of the day
today before decreasing in coverage this evening. Wetting rains
can be expected with these showers and thunderstorms, and with the
increased moisture daytime humidity will remain elevated with
excellent overnight recovery.

This low will move away from the region tonight, allowing a strong
area of high pressure to become established. This will result in a
warming and drying trend, with temperatures running close to 10
degrees above normal through much of the upcoming week. Despite
the drying trend, lingering moisture will maintain a chance for
showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over the higher
terrain.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for UTZ103-104-107.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for UTZ107.

WY...None.
&&

Seaman/NDesmet

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
137 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

UTZ125-128-142000-
South Central Utah UT-Southern Mountains UT-
137 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Garfield and north central Kane Counties through 200 PM MDT...

At 137 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Escalante, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Escalante.

This includes Utah Route 12 between mile markers 55 and 68, and near
mile marker 70.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 11160 3745 11180 3783 11167 3767 11126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 208DEG 18KT 3755 11162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
149 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

UTZ123>125-128-142030-
South Central Utah UT-Southern Mountains UT-Zion National Park UT-
Lower Washington County UT-
149 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Washington County through 230 PM MDT...

At 149 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Sand Hollow State Park, or 15 miles west of
Colorado City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zion National Park, Hurricane, La Verkin, Sand Hollow State Park,
Apple Valley, Quail Creek State Park, Hildale, Toquerville, Leeds,
Virgin, Springdale and Rockville.

This includes Interstate 15 between mile markers 23 and 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 11314 3700 11345 3733 11334 3708 11287
      3699 11309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 225DEG 17KT 3705 11326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
153 PM MDT SUN MAY 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W CAPITOL REEF NP     38.29N 111.29W
05/14/2023                   WAYNE              UT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK RANGER REPORTED APPROXIMATELY
            8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING THROUGH SULPHUR CREEK.

&&

WARTHEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
158 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

UTZ125-128-142030-
South Central Utah UT-Southern Mountains UT-
158 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Garfield and north central Kane Counties through 230 PM MDT...

At 158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Escalante, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Garfield and north central Kane Counties.

This includes Utah Route 12 between mile markers 64 and 71.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 11164 3758 11166 3780 11150 3750 11111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 224DEG 8KT 3757 11155

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
231 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

UTZ125-128-142115-
South Central Utah UT-Southern Mountains UT-
231 PM MDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Garfield County through 315 PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Escalante, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boulder.

This includes Utah Route 12 between mile markers 65 and 85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 11150 3763 11157 3791 11146 3760 11100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 238DEG 14KT 3766 11137

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MW

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