Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
426 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A moisture starved Pacific trough will cross northern
Utah today, curbing the warming trend and bringing gusty winds to
central and southern Utah and a few thunderstorms to northern
Utah. High pressure over the weekend will bring back the warming
trend as conditions stay dry. Southerly winds will increase early
next week as another trough approaches the California coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A Pacific low is centered
over Nevada this morning, with Utah and southwest Wyoming under
southwest flow out ahead of it, producing some gusty winds. The
low is on track to move across northern Utah during the day today
as it opens up and weakens. Associated moisture with the system
looks rather limited, but will see a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms develop over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming,
with the best threat for areas near the Idaho border. Given dry
lower levels, gusty winds are possible with any storms that
develop. However, main impact from the passing trough will be to
cool the airmass over the area slightly, curbing the warming trend
over the past few days. Maxes are expected to be around 5F below
seasonal normals over northern Utah, with some pockets over
central and southern Utah seeing some values up to 10F below
climo.

As the system exits tonight high pressure will move over the area
in its wake. The ridge axis is expected to be roughly overhead on
Saturday before sliding east of the area by Sunday as yet another
trough approaches the California coast. The ridge will keep
conditions dry over Utah and southwest Wyoming, with the warming
trend returning beginning Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A ridge to the southeast and a
trough across the west will keep our area oriented in southwesterly
flow. This will result in gusty southwesterly winds, primarily
across the southern/eastern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming,
during the afternoon Sunday-Tuesday as the boundary layer mixes out.
These winds are currently forecast to stay below advisory criteria.
Dry air will remain in place with only a low chance (~20%) of
isolated storms on Tuesday/Wednesday as the aforementioned trough
slides off to the north. Temperatures will stay near average.

As the week progresses the winds will gradually diminish as the
trough shifts north and is replaced by more ridging towards the end
of the period with increasing temperatures. Clusters are in good
agreement regarding the upcoming pattern, however there is some
divergence towards the end of the period with 69% of members
building the ridge in by the weekend and 31% of members maintaining
more of a zonal flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist throughout
the period. Southerly winds will increase throughout the day,
gusting up to 30kts, ahead of a disturbance that will produce high
based isolated storms during the afternoon. There is ~15% chance of
storms impacting the terminal directly, however there is a greater
chance that outflow produced from dry microbursts could create a
brief window of gusty westerly winds during the late afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
throughout the period for the entire CWA. Southerly winds will
increase throughout the day ahead of a disturbance that will produce
high based isolated storms (~15% chance) across northern Utah/SW
Wyoming during the afternoon. These storms have the potential to
produce gusty westerly outflow winds late in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A trough over Nevada early this morning will slide
across northern Utah today before exiting the area tonight.
Moisture is lacking with this system, so associated showers and
thunderstorms will be confined to far northern Utah. However, some
gusty winds will accompany the system, particularly over central
and southern Utah. High pressure will move over the area this
weekend, resulting in dry conditions with a warming trend in
temperatures. By early next week, another storm system will
approach the California coast, allowing southerly winds to
increase over Utah once again as relative humidity values continue
to drop.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Mahan

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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