Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
314 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled pattern will continue across northern
Utah through most of the week, while a gradual drying trend
continues across southern Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...The active pattern looks to
continue for the foreseeable future. Rain combined with snowmelt
caused a steep rise on the Logan River near Logan late this
evening into the overnight period and a river flood warning is now
in effect for this river. Latest data suggests this steep rise has
finally started to slow down and there is a high chance that the
Logan River will remain below moderate flood stage through
Wednesday morning. The river flood warning for the Logan River
near Logan is currently in effect through Wednesday evening,
however, additional rain is forecast and an extension will be
evaluated on the day shift.

Morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates a chaotic
longwave trough is currently located across the western CONUS. The
main upper level low is located near Pendleton, OR while a series
of shortwave troughs is noted rotating around the main low. A
relatively weak jet max will approach the CWA this afternoon,
with modest upper level diffluence across the state. This will aid
in the development of another round of strong convection this
afternoon and evening across portions of northern Utah.

This stubborn, slow moving longwave trough will remain across the
Pacific Northwest into the western Great Basin/northern California
through the short term forecast period.

HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE ranges from around 500 J/kg to as much
as 1500 J/kg by afternoon across northern and central Utah. Deep
layer shear is highest across the western half of Utah, around 30
kts or so. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked portions of
northern Utah in a marginal risk today and this tracks well with
the going forecast. Looking at model soundings, the highest
threats will be small hail and strong, gusty winds. The main
threat area is from Wendover to Ogden to Evanston and north. Salt
Lake County may be on the edge of any stronger convection today.

With rivers already running very high, additional impacts from
heavy rain are possible and will need to be monitored.

With the best forcing from jet dynamics shifting east Thursday,
the support for stronger convection looks less prevalent. Still,
expect another round of showers and thunderstorms across portions
of northern and central Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday)...A trough near the Pacific coast
will track inland Friday. Similar chances for showers and
thunderstorms to prior in the week are forecast from roughly Juab
County, eastward to Carbon County, northward to the Idaho border.
One difference will be lighter winds throughout western Utah and
stronger south to southwest winds for eastern portions of Utah.

The trough axis will approach Utah Saturday, with some guidance
with it further east and through Utah. There is better agreement
that a shortwave trough will break off in the PacNW. That will
bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout
southwest Wyoming and northern Utah.

There is more disagreement from Sunday into the next week. The
most likely scenario is with more chances for showers and
thunderstorms as a trough digs into California, brining enhanced
southwest flow with shower and thunderstorm chances as shortwaves
push through.

While there is a chance for precipitation for southwest Wyoming
and northern Utah all the way into next week, much of each day
will be dry. The best chances will be later afternoon and evening.
The main threat is likely to be gusty, erratic outflow winds.
Temperatures Thursday into next week will be around 5-10F warmer
than normal, with the coolest day Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds will last through the
morning. Winds will transition to northwest around 20Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms by around 20Z will have the chance to
bring gusty, erratic outflow winds into the evening. The threat
for showers, thunderstorms, or outflow winds will diminish around
03Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light winds will last
through most of the morning. Southwest winds gusting at more than
30 knots will last from 17-03Z throughout southern Utah. Winds
will be lighter throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20Z-03Z will have the
chance to bring gusty, erratic outflow winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A slow moving disturbance will gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This will result in unsettled
conditions with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across
northern Utah and net drying across southern Utah. Gusty winds and
low humidity is expected across the lower elevations of southern
Utah through at least Friday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for UTZ107.

WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Wilson

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
113 PM MDT WED MAY 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HAIL             STRAWBERRY RES          40.14N 111.13W
05/24/2023  M1.00 INCH       WASATCH            UT   PUBLIC

&&

DARREN.VAN_CLEAVE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
117 PM MDT WED MAY 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HAIL             4 N STRAWBERRY RES      40.20N 111.13W
05/24/2023  M1.00 INCH       WASATCH            UT   PUBLIC

            CORRECTED LOCATION

&&

DARREN.VAN_CLEAVE

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