High Wind Watch 7, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
355 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Brief high pressure will build into the area
Saturday. A large, cold Pacific system will shift south and east
into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, bringing strong, gusty winds to
the western valleys Sunday and most of the region Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...A quieter early morning across
Utah than the last few days, though the relative calm won't last
long as an unseasonably strong Pacific trough will slowly cross
the Pacific Northwest Sunday into Monday.

Morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates shortwave
ridging building into the Great Basin. A relatively strong upper
level low is noted near the British Columbia coast, with broad
upper level ridging across the eastern Pacific. Between the two, a
particularly strong jet is noted with broad upper level diffluence
approaching the Pacific Northwest.

Shortwave ridging will bring a relatively typical mid-June day to
the CWA with temperatures trending to around 5 to 10 degrees
below normal for June 17.

By Sunday afternoon, 700mb winds will increase to around 35 to 45
kts across the western valleys in response to the upper level low
shifting into the Pacific Northwest. Expect these winds to reach
wind advisory criteria across the western valleys, mainly from
I-80 south and I-15 and west...though some of the eastern valleys
may see winds approach wind advisory criteria, particularly the
western Uinta Basin. Will let the day shift get one more run in
before issuing any headlines.

This upper level low will continue to shift south and east, with
an increasingly strong baroclinic zone shifting across eastern
Washington/western Idaho and northern Nevada by Monday morning.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...Strong, southwesterly winds will
prevail across much of our forecast area on Monday
afternoon/evening, with the highest winds exceeding 50kts across
western valleys. A cold front Monday night will act to decrease
winds across the area, as well as drop temperatures by 10-15
degrees across the north.

The longwave trough pushing into the PacNW will stall just as it
reaches our area. Most impacts with this system will be on Monday,
with the cold front decreasing winds and bringing in a very dry
air mass after Monday. PWATs are likely to drop from the 80th
percentile on Monday to near the 10th percentile for mid-June.
Despite a couple of embedded shortwave troughs, it will be too dry
to get any precipitation after Monday night. The only exception
may be a few isolated showers over the Uintas on Tuesday
afternoon.

Strong southwesterly flow is our main forecast concern, likely
stronger on Monday than what's expected on Sunday. Western valleys
south of Box Elder Co. have a 60-90% likelihood of exceeding
50kts (warning criteria) on Monday afternoon. Even portions of the
Uinta Basin reach up to an 80% likelihood of reaching 50kts,
though this covers a small area. Other areas will see gusty winds,
though are likely to remain at advisory level or lower. The
Wasatch Front will see gusts around 35-45kts, with the Cache
Valley seeing up to 30kts.

Moisture increases along the front, with the highest chance for
rain showers and isolated thunder across northern Utah on Monday
evening. Dry air will then filter in behind the front, cutting off
precipitation chances. Temperatures will also drop behind the
front; Monday afternoon highs remain near normal, while Tuesday
afternoon highs reach 15-20 degrees below normal across northern
Utah. Southern areas will only see a drop of a few degrees.

Beyond Tuesday, expect a gradual warming trend, with dry
conditions. The trough will continue to weaken, with perhaps
another system upstream by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail. Light, southeasterly
winds will shift to light out of the northwest around 18-19z,
shifting back to southeast around 02-03z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
with fairly light, diurnally driven flows. Winds may gust up to
20kts out of the west across southern Utah after 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A brief break in the action is expected today,
with weak high pressure shifting across the region. A strong, cold
upper level low will shift across the Pacific Northwest Sunday
into Monday, bringing strong, gusty winds and low humidities to
portions of western Utah Sunday, nearly state-wide Monday. While
fuels are not reported as critical in these areas, localized
critical fire weather conditions are possible in any receptive
fuels. The associated cold front will cross into far northwestern
Utah Monday evening and gradually shift across the state Tuesday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Cunningham

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