Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

950 
WGUS75 KSLC 022258
FFSSLC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
458 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

UTC017-025-030000-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garfield UT-Kane UT-
458 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING 
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES...

At 458 PM MDT, Radar Estimated rainfall across the warned area of 
0.5 and 1 inch of rain occurred from earlier thunderstorms. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of slot canyons and
         normally dry washes.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  slot canyons adjacent to Hole in the Rock Road...from Brimstone 
  slot canyon on the south end, to slot canyons adjacent to and 
  including Harris Wash on the north end.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. Dry 
washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 11134 3766 11144 3782 11121 3765 11104
      3746 11120

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GM

696 
WGUS75 KSLC 022356
FFSSLC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
556 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

UTC017-025-030006-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garfield UT-Kane UT-
556 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for portions of 
central, southern, and southwest Utah.

LAT...LON 3756 11134 3766 11144 3782 11121 3765 11104
      3746 11120

$$

GM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
401 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A monsoon surge will continue across the entire
region today. A drier airmass will build into southern Utah
Thursday, reaching northern Utah by Friday. A drier, more stable
pattern will continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...Today will be the last day of
the state-wide monsoonal surge, with drying air gradually
building into southern Utah Thursday.

Morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates the upper level
ridge has shifted somewhat eastward over the last 24 hours, now
centered over roughly the Dallas area. A shortwave
trough/potential MCV is located across southern Nevada.
Additional weak shortwave troughs/MCVs are likely present but
difficult to detect at this time.

An area of enhanced showers and embedded thunderstorms is crossing
northern Utah, with cooling cloud tops on IR approaching the
western Uinta Basin as of 330 AM. This area will continue to
shift across northern Utah through early morning.

Guidance indicates the previously mentioned MCV will cross Utah
from southwest to northeast through Thursday morning. This
combined with SBCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg by this
afternoon plus 95th+ percentile precipitable water values will
set the stage for a widespread convective threat across much of
the state today. What's different today is an increase in deep
layer shear across northern and central Utah, reaching around
20-30kts. Previous days deep layer shear averaged around 10 kts.

As a result, CAMS are indicating the potential for a line of
organized convection developing across west central Utah and
shifting north and east with time. Current timing suggests this
area of strong convection would reach the Wasatch Front by around
5-8 PM.

As is always the case with convection associated with monsoonal
surges, a few questions arise. First, will cloud cover hamper
destabilization this afternoon and evening? Will northern Utah
remain subsident longer than expected in the wake of this
morning's convection? The majority of the CAM guidance suggests
that sufficient destabilization will occur on both accounts for
the potential for organized convection, but this is something that
will need to be monitored for bust potential. For now, added heavy
rain, small hail and gusty winds to the forecast in areas with the
highest threat this afternoon and evening.

Another night of nocturnal convection is expected for northern
Utah tonight, which will need to be monitored for the threat of
flash flooding. HREF average return intervals show >60% chance 5
year return intervals will be exceeded across northern Utah, with
>40% chance 10 year return intervals will be exceeded (in a broad
area for both) tonight into Thursday morning.

With dry air advection shifting into central Utah by Thursday
afternoon, the heavy rain threat with Thursday afternoon and
evening convection will be mainly across northern Utah. By Friday
morning, the end of this monsoon surge will be in the books.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday)...Nearly zonal flow will be set up
across Utah Friday. This will allow the drying trend to continue.
Southern Utah will have precipitable water values substantially
lower than the previous day. Mostly dry conditions are forecast
there, with only a low chance for a shower or thunderstorm near
higher terrain. Precipitable water values will decrease, but stay
from roughly 0.8-1" across northern Utah with shortwave energy
contributing to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The best precipitation chances will be in the northern mountains.

Monsoonal moisture advection will continue to lower as the ridge
that was in the southern plains retrogrades, bringing near zonal
flow Friday. Similar conditions are forecast Saturday. Southern
Utah will be dry, while moisture content will decrease more
throughout northern Utah, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms
are expected in the mountains.

Flow will transition to northwest Sunday, which will lower
precipitation chances throughout northern Utah. As the ridge
slides eastward early in the week, a few days of shortwave ridging
will be established throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah.

Conditions will be around 5-10F cooler than normal Friday through
the weekend, with near normal temperatures early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm
will be capable of heavy rain, which could lower visibility or
ceiling into MVFR range. Winds will prevail from the southeast
most of the morning, with a transition to northwest flow around
17Z. Confidence on wind direction through the afternoon is low and
will depend on where showers and thunderstorms are. Gusty,
erratic winds could occur with nearby showers or thunderstorms.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain could drop ceilings and
visibility from VFR range. Gusty, erratic outflow winds could
occur with nearby showers or thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected from 18Z-00Z in southern Utah and from
18Z-06Z in northern Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A monsoon surge will continue to bring deep moisture
to the state today. This will result in multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms with wetting rains, cooler temperatures
and higher humidities. The monsoon surge will come to an end
Thursday across southern Utah as drier air begins to shift into
the region. By Friday, this drying trend will reach northern Utah.
Expect a very dry airmass to shift into place, with afternoon
humidities levels below 15 percent across southern Utah, 25 to 35
percent across northern Utah Friday into the weekend.

Outside of a weak disturbance grazing far northern Utah Saturday,
there is little threat of precipitation through at least midweek
next week as a drier airmass remains in place.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Wilson

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
202 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NNE Scipio            39.33N 112.05W
08/02/2023  M62 MPH          Juab               UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SBWU1 Sevier Reservoir.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
221 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Rain             1 NW West Valley City   40.70N 112.02W
08/02/2023  M2.19 inch       Salt Lake          UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW8721 West Valley City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
228 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 W Nephi               39.73N 111.93W
08/02/2023  M77 MPH          Juab               UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PC349 Nephi West.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
231 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

UTZ125-128-022115-
South Central Utah UT-Southern Mountains UT-
231 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Garfield and northeastern Kane Counties through 315 PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northwest of Lake Powell, or 28 miles south of Escalante,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Garfield and northeastern Kane Counties.

This includes Utah Route 12 between mile markers 70 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 11143 3733 11172 3780 11142 3758 11094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 211DEG 30KT 3738 11142

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
236 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Santaquin         39.94N 111.81W
08/02/2023  M66 MPH          Juab               UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UTRKY Rocky Ridge.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
257 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW Santaquin         40.00N 111.80W
08/02/2023  M58 MPH          Utah               UT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FG024 West Mountain South.

&&