Tornado Warning 14, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Cold front has sagged all the way into the Concho Valley and
Heartland this afternoon. Temperatures along and ahead of the
front well in the 90s to near 100, while readings north of the
front are mainly in the 70s. MOdels continue to show isolated
convection along and north of the boundary with storm likely to
become severe and shift east pretty quickly. Visible satellite
showing some cu development trying to take place, but it may still
be 22 or 23Z before we see any deep convection take off.

HRRR shows additional convection trying to develop late this
evening or into the early morning hours and this will need to be
monitored.

As for temperatures, front will still have an affect on
temperatures on Tuesday, with readings in the lower 90s across
I-20 to near 100 again across the Concho Valley south into the
Edwards Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

More focused on the short term, but all indications are that the
summer like heat is still on track for mid to late week as the
upper level ridge builds into the area. Models have been
consistent in forecasting highs above 105 across the Concho Valley
and not far from that across the remainder of the are area. If
this works out, then Heat Advisory/Warning criteria will be met
and heat products will need to be issued.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all
sites. However, we will have some severe TSRA to deal with that
may impact the KBBD site through the next few hours. Will update
the TAF if necessary. KABI will have some MVFR ceilings for
another few hours before scattering out to VFR. Otherwise, may
see some brief periods of MVFR ceilings at KABI, KBBD, and
especially KJCT early Tuesday morning through 15Z or 16Z, after
which all sites will improve to VFR with south to southwest winds
around 10 knots at most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  92  67  92 /  30  10   0   0
San Angelo  72 101  67 103 /  20   0   0   0
Junction    73 103  72 105 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   70  97  68  98 /  50  10  10   0
Sweetwater  66  94  67  95 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       74 102  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       72  97  70  99 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-132000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some of which will likely be severe, will
be possible across portions of West Central Texas this afternoon
and evening, The greatest risk area will include the Big Country
and Heartland, but severe storms will be possible across the
Concho Valley and Hill Country as well. Giant hail larger than
baseball size and wind gusts near 75 mph will be the main concern,
but an isolated tornado also remains possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Temperatures above 105 degrees are possible through the end of
the week, with the warmest temperatures remaining south of the
I-20 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be requested later this afternoon
and evening for portions of West Central Texas.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Hail             3 N Salt Gap            31.34N 99.60W
06/12/2023  E2.25 inch       McCulloch          TX   Public

            Hen Egg+ size hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
644 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     Hail             2 N Salt Gap            31.33N 99.60W
06/12/2023  E2.00 inch       McCulloch          TX   Public

            Hen Egg size hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Hail             2 N Salt Gap            31.33N 99.60W
06/12/2023  E2.50 inch       McCulloch          TX   Public

            Tennis Ball size hail.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

TXZ073-130045-
Concho TX-
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Concho
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Vick, or 10 miles west of Eden, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eden, Millersview, The Intersection Of Us-
87 And Ranch Road 2134 and The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 765.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 10007 3129 10011 3154 9969 3152 9965
      3151 9968 3150 9965 3147 9963 3147 9961
      3150 9962 3149 9960 3122 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 245DEG 35KT 3125 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

sn

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>