Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
630 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected to develop
across northern and eastern portions of West Central Texas this
afternoon into this evening...

Satellite and radar images indicate some convection...mostly
elevated...developing across extreme southeast portions of the CWA
this afternoon. The latest HRRR progs convective initiation across
the northern and western counties between now and this
evening...mainly along the surface dryline. The dryline will be a
focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon into
this evening and it appears the strongest convection will be across
the Big Country region this evening. SPC continues to advertise a
slight to enhanced risk of severe weather across the northern and
eastern portions of the CWA for this afternoon and evening. The main
hazards are very large hail (up to baseball size possible) and
damaging winds (60 to 80 mph) but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring weak upper level
impulses across portions of northwest Texas tonight into tomorrow.
The dryline will continue to provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop across portions of west central Texas
Sunday afternoon. SPC has a marginal to slight risk of severe
weather across northern and eastern portions of the CWA tomorrow.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main weather hazards for

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...Hot and unsettled pattern to continue for the foreseeable
future...

Not a whole lot of change from the previous long-term forecast. The
mid level ridge that has been the key player in our storm chances
the past few days will continue to drift off to the east. By Monday
the area will be in generally quasi-zonal flow with a broad, mid-
level trough beginning to take shape off of the west coast. This
will allow flow over our area to transition back into weak southwest
flow. This overall setup will help to continue the hot and unsettled
pattern we've been seeing over the past few days. Surface winds out
of the south will help to keep a moist boundary layer in place.
This, in turn, will allow the dryline to continue to take shape and
mix east during the day. Monday and Tuesday will see this dryline
activity allowing for chances of strong to severe storms with large
to very large hail being the main hazard along with damaging winds.
With continued moisture and afternoon highs expected to be in the
90s, SBCAPE values will be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range each
afternoon with steep low level lapse rates. As these storms are
generally expected to be high based, the tornado threat will
remain limited with a greater straight line wind threat from
potential downbursts. Activity these days currently looks to be
more isolated/scattered in nature and will greatly depend on both
the shortwave disturbances that move overhead as well as how far
east the dryline can mix through the day.

The aforementioned mid-level trough will begin to move east into the
Western CONUS late Monday before pushing north and east into the
Central Rockies by late Tuesday into Wednesday. The trough is
expected to deepen into a low and stall out over the north central
Rockies. This will put our area in weak south to southwest flow
for the end of the week and into the weekend. This will also usher
in some mid-level height falls, allowing temperatures a cool a
few degrees back into the 80s and lower 90s, starting on
Wednesday. Global models have backed off on precipitation chances
for the end of the work week, especially on Friday, so we have
followed suite with the forecast. That being said, both show very
wet weekends with highly saturated atmospheric profiles and
widespread showers and storms. With very little synoptic
convergence expected, the current thought is that showers will be
influenced by perturbations in the flow aloft. We are optimistic
that this will hold true as much of the area is still in desperate
need for rain but it's certainly not a guarantee. We will keep a
close eye on the end of the week but overall the warm and
unsettled pattern that is typical for spring down here will
continue for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

Thunderstorms developing over KABI at 2330Z will move northeast,
with strong gusty winds up to 40 KTS and IFR visibilities in heavy
rain. Storm should be east by 2Z. MVFR visibilities otherwise
return after midnight and continue through midmorning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  93  65  97 /  50  30  20  10
San Angelo  68  95  64  99 /  40  20  10  10
Junction    68  94  64  97 /  20  20  10  20
Brownwood   65  91  64  95 /  50  20  20  10
Sweetwater  66  94  65  97 /  20  30  10   0
Ozona       69  92  63  95 /  10  10   0  10
Brady       67  91  65  94 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
238 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-071945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
238 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop across
portions of the Big Country extending southward across portions
of the Heartland and the Concho Valley into portions of the
northwest Hill Country this afternoon and evening. Very large hail
up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph, and an
isolated tornado can be expected with severe storms. In
addition...locally heavy rainfall can be expected with strong to
severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday through
Thursday. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall
are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

Castillo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
700 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

TXZ113-114-070045-
Shackelford TX-Jones TX-
700 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Jones
and western Shackelford Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 700 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
The Intersection Of Us-
180 And Farm Road 600, or near Nugent, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, Albany, Lueders, Nugent, Avoca, Funston, Mccarty Lake, Big
Country Baptist Assembly and The Intersection Of Us-
180 And Farm Road 600.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 9983 3296 9991 3296 9938 3261 9923
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 259DEG 31KT 3274 9975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Castillo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
707 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     THROCKMORTON            33.18N 99.18W
05/06/2023  E70 MPH          THROCKMORTON       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
710 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             RULE                    33.19N 99.90W
05/06/2023  U1.00 INCH       HASKELL            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
757 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

TXZ114-128-070145-
Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-
757 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Callahan and
southeastern Shackelford Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Admiral, or near Rowden, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baird, Moran, Putnam, Rowden, Admiral, Us-283 Near The Callahan-
Shackelford County Line and I-20 Near The Callahan-
Eastland County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 305 and 323.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3228 9912 3211 9936 3222 9953
      3266 9931 3255 9910 3253 9910 3252 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 217DEG 24KT 3230 9933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Castillo