Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
226 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

As of 2 PM, an outflow boundary/cold front had moved south to a
line roughly from Mertzon to San Angelo to San Saba, and was
sparking showers and thunderstorms across the Concho Valley,
including San Angelo. Some of this activity contains heavy
rainfall, and some localized flooding is likely with the heavier
storms. Additional development later this evening to the west of
the area over higher terrain, and near other residual boundaries
from yesterday's convection is also possible. This activity would
likely move to the east or southeast into our western counties
later tonight, so have kept a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast tonight.

On Sunday, the overall set-up will not change that much, with
weak relative troughing over the area, plentiful moisture
available, and various residual boundaries in the area, another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
especially for the southern half of the area. As with today's
storms, localized flooding will be likely with the stronger
storms. Temperatures are expected to again be near or slightly
below average for highs on Sunday, mainly in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

An upper level ridge will be centered across the Desert Southwest
for the first half of next week. West Central Texas will remain
on the eastern periphery of this feature, but the ridge should
still remain close enough to result in slightly above normal
temperatures and generally dry conditions. Highs on Monday will be
in the mid to upper 90s. Highs much of the rest of the work week
will be between 95 and 102 degrees. Wednesday night into Thursday,
models are indicating a weak cold front moving south into North
Texas. This weak front then stalls and becomes diffuse across the
Big Country on Thursday. This front may be the focus for isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country.

Next weekend, the aforementioned upper level ridge begins to
build east into Texas. This results in drier conditiions and well
above normal temperatures. Much of the area will likely see
temperatures between 100 and 105 by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

An outflow boundary and scattered SHRA and TSRA are currently
affecting areas from just north of KSJT to KABI. Expect this
boundary to make it into the KSJT area, and possibly result in
scattered TSRA at least near the KSJT terminal. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop later this evening to our
west, and move into the area later this evening, so have kept some
VCTS for this possibility in the latest set of TAFs. Conditions
should largely remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  90  71  93 /  20  30  10  10
San Angelo  70  93  71  98 /  20  30  10   0
Junction    72  94  72  96 /  20  20  10  10
Brownwood   73  93  71  96 /  20  30  10  10
Sweetwater  70  92  72  96 /  30  30  10  10
Ozona       70  89  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
Brady       73  93  72  95 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas, mainly
south of Interstate 20 tonight. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe, with the main concerns being large hail and
damaging wind gusts. The other hazard will be localized flash
flooding, especially in poor drainage, and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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