Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
300 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Early this afternoon, visible satellite and radar imagery shows
scattered showers and storms developing across the I-10 corridor
along a WSW to ENE oriented boundary. The main dry-line stretches
from around Roby southeast through Mason, while a secondary weaker
dry-line exists from around Sweetwater south through Sonora and then
southwest through SW Crockett County. Large amounts of instability
and weak lift along existing boundaries should result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening, with
hi-res guidance indicating the best chances in the Concho Valley and
I-10 corridor. High dew point depressions are resulting in Downdraft
CAPEs of 1500+ J/KG, so damaging winds will be the main hazard this
afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has much of
the Big Country and northern Heartland in an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through late tonight, with a Slight
Risk elsewhere for locations east of a Colorado City to Junction
line, and a Marginal Risk everywhere else. Meanwhile, it is another
record breaking day of extreme heat, with a high in San Angelo
having reached 114 degrees, which is 2 degrees higher than the
previous record for all-time high temperature for San Angelo that
was broken yesterday (reached 114 yesterday).

It appears that the greatest risk for severe weather today and
tonight will be in the late evening through very early morning hours
Thursday where models indicate that a strong quasi-linear convective
system (otherwise known as a "squall line") originating in the TX
Panhandle will push down through the central and eastern Big Country
and into the northern Heartland (the area of the Enhanced Risk).
That area has a 30%+ risk of very strong and damaging downdraft
winds of 75+ mph, along with large to very large hail. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

The abnormally strong 850 mb thermal ridge will be slightly weaker
on Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures lowering to around 22-30 deg C
(as opposed to 27-34 deg C this afternoon), and the dry-line will
move further west, bringing our region higher dewpoints (mostly 60s
to low 70s). So look for highs Thursday afternoon around 102-107 in
the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor, and 93-99 elsewhere. However,
the higher dewpoints may result in heat index values in the 105-108
range. There's also some uncertainty regarding how boundaries set up
and how well dew points recover after the storms move through
tonight. So, due to this, and the possible confusion with having an
Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory out at the same time, will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for tomorrow for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..Heat continues. Storms possible Friday...

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the next
week. We may see slightly cooler temperatures for Friday, especially
in the Big Country, but they're still be above normal for this time
of the year. Surface winds on Friday will be easterly turning
southeasterly. This along with the possibility of wetter soil
conditions from rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday will help to
limit highs. However, we will likely see increased moisture and
higher dewpoints on Friday which will lead to heat index values
approaching 110. The high aloft will then start to position
itself over our area through the next week. Surface winds will
wobble between a southeasterly and a westerly wind. Westerly winds
will allow for downsloping off of higher terrain and an increase
in temperatures. The combination of the upper level high and
occasional downsloping winds has highs around 110 for San Angelo
Sunday through Wednesday.

As for the rain chances, our best chance of rain will be early
Friday morning and Friday night. With the temperatures and dewpoints
we're expecting, any storms that can get going could become severe
and produce very strong and damaging winds. There will be convective
inhibition across most of the area for this time period, but the dry
line combined with some short wave impulses moving through aloft
could be enough to trigger storms on Friday, and possibly some of
the other afternoons through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Isolated to Scattered TSRA likely to develop by 21Z, and continue
through around 05Z Thurs. Confidence is low on locations impacted,
especially the TAF sites. However, stronger storms will likely
produce large to very large hail, very strong and erratic gusts
of 60+ KT, and LIFR/VLIFR conditions in heavy rain. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected through 18Z Thurs. Other than strong and
erratic downdraft winds from TSRA, prevailing winds look to be
mostly less than 10 KT with highly varying wind directions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  94  72  96 /  30  10  20  10
San Angelo  73 105  73 104 /  20  10  20   0
Junction    73 104  74 101 /  30  10  10   0
Brownwood   72  97  73  97 /  30  10  20  10
Sweetwater  71  98  72  99 /  20  10  20  10
Ozona       73 105  74 102 /  20   0  20   0
Brady       72  96  73  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
158 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-221900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
158 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous heat will continue this afternoon and early evening. An
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for all of West Central
Texas as temperatures warm to 105 to 112 degrees. Heat stroke and
heat exhaustion will be likely with any strenuous outdoor
activity.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon
through late tonight. Some storms will become strong to severe.
The main hazards will be damaging winds, large to very large hail,
and dangerous lightning. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night and again late Friday afternoon into Friday night. The main
hazards will be strong gusty winds and dangerous lightning.

Dangerous heat will continue across the area into next week. Heat
stroke and heat exhaustion will be likely with any strenuous
outdoor activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
326 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXZ168-169-212115-
Menard TX-Kimble TX-
326 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Kimble
and south central Menard Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Intersection Of Us-83 And Ranch Road 1773, or 8 miles southwest
of Menard, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
The Intersection Of Us-83 And Ranch Road 1773 and Us-
83 Near The Kimble-Menard County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 9994 3088 9979 3069 9964 3064 9994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 341DEG 4KT 3081 9984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SJH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
343 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Hail             6 SW Segovia            30.36N 99.73W
06/21/2023  E0.88 inch       Kimble             TX   Public

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>