Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
638 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall Across Portions of West Central
Texas through Tonight...

Early this afternoon, a cold front was located across northwest
Texas and pushing south.  A dryline was located from the western Big
Country southward to the Trans-Pecos.  At the upper levels, a broad
trough was located over northwest Mexico.  The airmass south of the
front and east of the dryline is very unstable today, with dewpoints
in the upper 60s and CAPEs over 4000 J/kg.  The cap should break by
late this afternoon, allowing for scattered thunderstorms to develop
with the potential for hail and locally damaging downburst winds. As
the evening progresses, more storms should develop on the cold front
and dryline.  These will undoubtedly merge with existing storms and
interact with any outflow boundaries to form a long line of storms.
Depending on the strength of the cold pool behind this line, it
should advance slowly eastward overnight.  PWAT values are over an
inch.  This, combined with the slow movement and the low-level jet
that will develop, these storms could easily dump 1-2 inches of rain
across the area through the night. WPC currently has our counties in
a Slight-Moderate risk of Excessive Rainfall until tomorrow morning.
The Flash Flood Watch was therefore expanded to include all
remaining counties starting this evening and continuing through
tomorrow evening.  Tomorrow, expect the airmass to be much cooler in
the wake of the storms, but the upper-level trough will remain in
place over northwest Mexico.  This should help to keep the humid
airmass in place and lead to another round of storms during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...Heavy Rainfall and Isolated Flash Flooding Possible Saturday
Night through Tuesday...

The combination of weak upper level disturbances, weak
instability, mesoscale boundaries around the area and abundant
Gulf and Pacific moisture(PW values of 1.75 to 2 inches) will lead
to periods of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across
much of the area Saturday night through Tuesday. The next chance
for high impact flash flooding will be Monday and Monday night as
WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall south of the I-20
corridor. The unsettled weather will continue through next week
with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. The severe weather threat looks very
low, but can not rule out and isolated strong to marginal severe
storm during any afternoon hours with the main hazard being
damaging downburst winds through Wednesday. Expect below normal
temperatures through middle of next week and then warming back to
normal values by the end of next week. Also, expect humid
conditions for the next several days as dewpoints will remain in
the 60s. Residents of west central Texas should stay up with the
latest weather information/forecasts and have many ways of
receiving warnings/watches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Thunderstorms are beginning to form across the area and will
impact all terminals this evening and into the overnight hours.
Have included TSRA and SHRA groupings at all sites with timings
aligned according to latest guidance. Winds with these storms will
be gusty and variable. Thunderstorm activity will taper overnight
into more of a rain threat. MVFR ceilings will begin to work into
the terminals late overnight and continue through the morning
before lifting back to low end VFR by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     64  74  63  76 /  90  90  80  70
San Angelo  63  78  61  79 /  90  80  70  70
Junction    63  77  62  78 /  90  70  70  70
Brownwood   64  78  63  78 /  70  90  80  80
Sweetwater  63  73  61  77 /  90  90  70  70
Ozona       61  75  61  77 /  90  70  60  60
Brady       64  76  63  76 /  80  80  70  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
155 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-131900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
155 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe storms will develop across the western
portions of West Central Texas late this afternoon and then spread
across the remainder of the area this evening and through the
overnight hours. Large hail will be possible with the storms this
afternoon and early evening, with the threat of the storms
shifting to damaging winds and very heavy rainfall overnight.
Heavy rainfall may lead to areas of flash flooding overnight.  A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect starting this evening for portions
of West Central Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Storms, with the potential for heavy rainfall and perhaps some
hail will continue across much of West Central Texas from Saturday
into early next week. The Flash FLood Watch continues into
Saturday evening for parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed across West Central
Texas late this afternoon and tonight.

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