Wind Advisory 9, NWS Shreveport, LA

Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, McCurtain County, OK, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

852 
WWUS74 KSHV 021717
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1117 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-030130-
/O.CON.KSHV.WI.Y.0009.230302T1800Z-230303T1800Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs, 
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville, 
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden, 
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice, 
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, 
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle, 
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery, 
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Clarksville, Bogata, Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, 
Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, 
Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City, Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, 
Hawkins, Gilmer, Big Sandy, Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall,
Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, Center, 
Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
1117 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph expected with 
  gusts up to 45 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Arkansas, 
  north central and northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and 
  east and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, strong winds and rough waves on area 
  lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Also, boaters on area
lakes should use extra caution since strong winds and rough waves
can overturn small craft.

&&

$$

09

020 
WWUS74 KSHV 022032
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
232 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031100-
/O.CON.KSHV.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230303T1800Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs, 
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville, 
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden, 
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice, 
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, 
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle, 
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery, 
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Clarksville, Bogata, Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, 
Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, 
Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City, Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, 
Hawkins, Gilmer, Big Sandy, Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall,
Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, Center, 
Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
232 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph expected with 
  gusts up to 45 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Arkansas, 
  north central and northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and 
  east and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, strong winds and rough waves on area 
  lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Also, boaters on area
lakes should use extra caution since strong winds and rough waves
can overturn small craft.

&&

$$

09

309 
WWUS74 KSHV 030808
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
208 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031800-
/O.CON.KSHV.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230303T1800Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs, 
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville, 
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden, 
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice, 
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, 
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle, 
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery, 
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Clarksville, Bogata, Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, 
Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, 
Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City, Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, 
Hawkins, Gilmer, Big Sandy, Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall,
Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, Center, 
Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
208 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...West to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph expected with gusts
  up to 35 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Arkansas, 
  north central and northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and 
  east and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. In
  addition, strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create
  hazardous conditions for small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Also, boaters on area
lakes should use extra caution since strong winds and rough waves
can overturn small craft.

&&

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1059 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

For the update, lowered pops to slight chance/low end chance
variety for the remainder of the overnight hours in the wake of
the Tornado Watch which was not extended locally beyond 10pm. Weak
frontal boundary that resides across our far northwest zones is
stalled and will not make any further push eastward into our
region overnight and through much of the day Thursday for that
matter. The Arkansas portion of the boundary however may try to
backdoor its way southward towards sunrise and really believe it's
this region that could still see some additional convection
overnight but coverage does not support any more than low end
chance pops. Widespread mid and high level cloud cover suggests
that we will not fall too much more temperature wise overnight and
the current forecast has a pretty good handle on this. Updated
forecast is out...no other changes for the update.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 326 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Two severe weather events, one this evening and another Thursday
afternoon and night, are the major weather concerns during the
short-term forecast period. There's a lot to explain, so bear with
me.

A very deep and large upper trough is currently digging south into
the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. During the day Thursday,
this trough will eject east into West Texas, then east-northeast
into Southeast Oklahoma early Friday morning. At the surface, a
stalled cold front is located just northwest of the forecast area
with a surface low in Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas. A second
surface low will develop over the Texas Panhandle and eject along
the cold front on Thursday.

A lead shortwave trough ejecting northeast ahead of the Southwest
CONUS trough is tapping into a rich plume of deep layer moisture.
Convection is beginning to develop from North Central Texas along
and north of the Interstate 30 corridor into Southwest Arkansas.
This same zone immediately ahead of the front is also
characterized by increased instability with CAPE values in excess
of 2000 J/kg, deep layer shear of 50 to 60 kts, and very steep
mid-level lapse rates. Of particular concern, is a local maxima of
0-1 SRH, currently around 250 m2/s2 near the surface low in
Southeast Oklahoma. In addition, the development of a strong
southerly low-level jet should increase the shear in the 0-1 km
layer. While the threat for severe weather will continue to be
north of a line from Tyler, to Shreveport, to Farmerville, the
greatest risk will be concentrated along and either side of
Interstate 30 in Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and much of
Southwest Arkansas. All severe hazards are in play. However, given
the strong instability and shear in the different layers, there
is the potential for very large hail and possibly a strong
tornado. Convection may persist into the early morning hours, but
the severe weather threat for this evening should end near or
shortly after midnight. That's the end of the first severe weather
event.

The second event will occur Thursday afternoon and possibly into
the overnight and early morning hours of Friday as the primary
upper trough emerges into the Plains and drives a stronger surface
low and cold front towards the area. All of the severe weather
parameters that we have in place today will be there tomorrow and
across nearly the entire area. In addition, the shear profiles may
be even stronger, which sometimes could be a limiting factor for
discrete supercell development simply because there is too much
shear. There is still some uncertainty in the exact evolution of
the convection on Thursday. However, current thinking is that
strong to severe thunderstorms will begin to develop by mid
afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas. Discrete
supercell development will be possible with the initial
development and the potential for strong tornadoes is of great
concern Thursday afternoon and evening as these storms encounter
the highest instability and low-level wind shear over the
ArkLaTex. Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will be
possible.

A second wave of storms is expected to develop in the form of a
linear complex immediately along the cold front as it advances
eastward Thursday evening and night. Line-embedded tornadoes will
be possible as well as the potential for very high and widespread
damaging winds. This final round of severe storms should finally
exit the area by sunrise Friday.

In addition, the potential for multiple heavy rain events exist
across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. PWAT values
between 1.25 and 1.50 inches and strong large scale forcing
suggest the potential for some very efficient rainfall producers.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in our northern
zones, and locally higher amounts are likely.

And finally, very strong gradient winds are likely as the front
moves across the area. In addition, some stronger winds just about
the surface may get transported down to the ground. There could be
some wind gusts in excess of 35 to 40 kts Thursday night and into
Friday morning. Future shifts will likely need to consider issuing
a Wind Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

By early Friday morning, clouds and some lingering showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible across our far northern
zones from wrap around moisture from the departing upper trough and
sfc low. The best chance for precip will generally be across all of
SE Oklahoma, along with portions of NE Texas and adjacent SW
Arkansas near and north of the US HWY 82 corridor.  Rain should
depart the area by midday Friday, with clouds gradually clearing
through the afternoon hours. This will make for a temperature
gradient across the region, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to
lower 60s in the rain and cloud covered areas, to mid to upper 60s
across the remainder of the region. One thing of note for Friday
will be the potential for a Wind Advisory, as very windy conditions
will settle over the region with the departing sfc low. Some
guidance is suggesting sustained winds up to 30 mph across the
region, with gusts 40 to 45 mph. Decided to play this a little more
conservative and taper winds down a bit, by putting sustained winds
between 20 to 25 mph, with gusts 30 to 35 mph. By Friday evening,
high pressure will settle over the region. Expect winds to diminish
to near calm, along with clear skies. This will allow temps to fall
into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure will remain over the area on Saturday, as the
upper-level flow becomes more zonal.  Expect quiet conditions and
clear skies to continue, with highs around 70 degrees. These quiet
conditions will remain on Sunday, but southerly winds will return as
as the sfc high shifts east of the region. This will allow for
warmer temps, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s, and
lows Sunday night/Monday morning in the 50s.

By early next week, expect the warming trend to continue as upper
ridging will start to build into the Gulf of Mexico. However, this
will not keep us from seeing rain chances return across the area.
Some warm air advection showers will be possible south of Interstate
20 on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday and Wednesday, additional rain
chances will return across the region, as a frontal boundary moves
into the area. This boundary will likely stall across the region on
both days, due to the strong upper ridge in the gulf. This may lead
to a gradient in temps by Wednesday, with highs north of the front
in the upper 60s, and zones south of the front near 80 degrees.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Didn't make too many changes from the 00z TAF package. Did delay
the develop or advection of MVFR and IFR ceilings into our
airspace and delayed the onset of VCTS across most terminal
locations during the day Thursday. Otherwise, bit event will
likely be during the tail end of this TAF package across our far
western zones and will be highlighted with the 12z TAF package.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  80  52  64 /  20  70 100  10
MLU  68  81  56  68 /  20  60  90  10
DEQ  59  71  46  59 /  20  90 100  30
TXK  64  76  50  61 /  20  90 100  20
ELD  65  75  51  63 /  30  80 100  20
TYR  66  78  48  62 /  20  80 100  10
GGG  67  78  49  63 /  20  70 100  10
LFK  69  82  51  67 /  20  50  90   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
420 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-022230-
Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Union-De Soto-Red River-
Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-
La Salle-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
420 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana,
northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible today for areas north of I-20. Large hail will be the
primary threat with storms that develop today. There is a potential
that we could see very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. In
addition, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will also be
possible later during the afternoon hours. The greatest threat for
severe thunderstorms will be across far northeast Texas, southeast
Oklahoma and all of our southwest Arkansas counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears possible on Thursday
afternoon and into Thursday night. There will be two chances for
severe weather during the day. The first will come during the early
or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for some discrete
supercells ahead of the main line that will move through later in
the
day. Main threats for any discrete cells during the mid afternoon
would be large hail and the potential for strong tornadoes. Later in
the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours as a cold
front sweeps through the area, a line of thunderstorms will move
through the region, bringing an additional threat for damaging winds
of 70 to 80 mph possible and embedded tornadoes. Additionally,
moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding across the northern portion of the area where some
locations could see a quick 2 inches or more of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ARZ050-051-059>061-OKZ077-022230-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-McCurtain-
420 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Tornado Watch and Flood
Watch.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible today for areas north of I-20. Large hail will be the
primary threat with storms that develop today. There is a potential
that we could see very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. In
addition, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will also be
possible later during the afternoon hours. The greatest threat for
severe thunderstorms will be across far northeast Texas, southeast
Oklahoma and all of our southwest Arkansas counties. In addition to
the severe weather, expect heavy rainfall across the region, as
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms train over the area. A
Flash Flood watch is in effect from 6 PM this evening through Friday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears possible on Thursday
afternoon and into Thursday night. There will be two chances for
severe weather during the day. The first will come during the early
or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for some discrete
supercells ahead of the main line that will move through later in
the
day. Main threats for any discrete cells during the mid afternoon
would be large hail and the potential for strong tornadoes. Later in
the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours as a cold
front sweeps through the area, a line of thunderstorms will move
through the region, bringing an additional threat for damaging winds
of 70 to 80 mph possible and embedded tornadoes. Additionally,
moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding across the northern portion of the area where some
locations could see a quick 2 inches or more of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ARZ070>073-TXZ096-108>112-022230-
Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-
Cass-
420 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Tornado Watch.

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible
today for areas north of I-20. Large hail will be the primary threat
with storms that develop today. There is a potential that we could
see very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. In addition,
damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will also be possible later during
the
afternoon hours. The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will
be across far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and all of our
southwest Arkansas counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears possible on Thursday
afternoon and into Thursday night. There will be two chances for
severe weather during the day. The first will come during the early
or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for some discrete
supercells ahead of the main line that will move through later in
the
day. Main threats for any discrete cells during the mid afternoon
would be large hail and the potential for strong tornadoes. Later in
the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours as a cold
front sweeps through the area, a line of thunderstorms will move
through the region, bringing an additional threat for damaging winds
of 70 to 80 mph possible and embedded tornadoes. Additionally,
moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding across the northern portion of the area where some
locations could see a quick 2 inches or more of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TXZ097-022230-
Bowie-
420 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Tornado Watch and Flood
Watch.

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible
today for areas north of I-20. Large hail will be the primary threat
with storms that develop today. There is a potential that we could
see very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. In addition,
damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will also be possible later during
the
afternoon hours. The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will
be across far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and all of our
southwest Arkansas counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Flood Watch.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears possible on Thursday
afternoon and into Thursday night. There will be two chances for
severe weather during the day. The first will come during the early
or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for some discrete
supercells ahead of the main line that will move through later in
the
day. Main threats for any discrete cells during the mid afternoon
would be large hail and the potential for strong tornadoes. Later in
the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours as a cold
front sweeps through the area, a line of thunderstorms will move
through the region, bringing an additional threat for damaging winds
of 70 to 80 mph possible and embedded tornadoes. Additionally,
moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding across the northern portion of the area where some
locations could see a quick 2 inches or more of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
831 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

ARZ060-061-070-020300-
Hempstead AR-Miller AR-Nevada AR-
831 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Hempstead, north central Miller and northern Nevada Counties through
900 PM CST...

At 831 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Blevins to near Mandeville.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hope, Prescott, Emmet, Perrytown, Bodcaw, Oakhaven, Sutton, Laneburg,
Boughton and Mount Moriah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9331 3384 9329 3384 9326 3383 9326
      3383 9323 3382 9322 3382 9320 3380 9318
      3381 9314 3357 9338 3348 9392 3382 9360
      3389 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 248DEG 38KT 3379 9355 3349 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
900 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

ARZ060-061-020330-
Hempstead AR-Nevada AR-
900 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Hempstead and central Nevada Counties through 930 PM CST...

At 900 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Prescott to 8 miles south of Hope.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rosston, Willisville, Bodcaw, Bluff City, White Oak Lake State Park,
Cale, Patmos, Mount Moriah, Sutton, Morris, Laneburg and Reader.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9327 3384 9326 3383 9326 3383 9323
      3382 9322 3382 9320 3380 9318 3382 9314
      3379 9313 3378 9310 3357 9311 3349 9360
      3385 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 252DEG 36KT 3382 9332 3355 9355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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