Wind Advisory 3, NWS Shreveport, LA

726 
WWUS74 KSHV 182019
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
219 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

LAZ005-006-011>014-017>022-TXZ166-167-190000-
/O.CON.KSHV.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230119T0000Z/
Lincoln-Union-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-San Augustine-
Including the cities of Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice, Coushatta, 
Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, 
Zwolle, Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, 
Montgomery, Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, 
Olla, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
219 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Louisiana and 
  east Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will 
  create hazardous conditions for small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on area lakes should use extra caution since strong winds
and rough waves can overturn small craft.

&&

$$

09

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1143 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Low level moisture advection is underway this evening, indicative
of the scattered cu field that has begun to return N across Lower
E TX and N LA, as well as a slow rise in dewpoints across portions
of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA along a Nwd expanding warm front. This trend
will continue overnight, with temps expected to remain steady if
not rise slowly overnight with the Nwd passage of this front.
Meanwhile, the evening water vapor imagery depicts the closed low
centered just N of the Four Corners Region entering the Cntrl
Rockies, which will emerge out across into Ern CO/OK and TX
Panhandles by 12Z Wednesday. The approach of this system will
enhance a 40kt SWrly LLJ over the Srn Plains into much of our
region, which should eventually enhance warm advection -SHRA
development late along the Nrn returning warm front. The best
large scale forcing remains progged to stay just WNW of the region
through daybreak, with the cap expected to strengthen overnight.
Thus, any thunder should remain isolated if at all, with the cap
holding through much of the morning before eroding with the
approach of cooler air aloft associated with the approaching
trough axis.

Kept low chance pops going late for the Wrn half of the region,
and slight chance pops for all but the far Ern parishes in NCntrl
LA, with an uptick in pops after daybreak as the convection begins
to expand with the approaching dryline from the W. 03Z temps have
fallen to near if not below the forecast mins across portions of
SE OK/SW AR/N LA, and thus have lowered min temps slightly for
these areas although these temps should eventually hold
steady/slowly rise overnight with the continued warm advection.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

As Wednesday passes into Thursday, a closed upper level low will
migrate north and east from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes
region, bringing minimal impacts to the Shreveport CWA beyond a
return to zonal winds which may be gusty during the daytime hours
Thursday, especially across our elevated northern zones. Weak
ridging aloft in the wake of said low will extend the ArkLaTex's
quiet conditions through the end of the work week, with party cloudy
skies and seasonable temperatures abounding.

The next major disturbance will take the form of a deep positively
tilted trough digging across the Intermountain West late this week
and into the weekend before ejecting eastward during the day
Saturday. This feature looks to be the catalyst for a fairly active
weather pattern, with widespread showers taking shape Saturday
morning and persisting areawide through the weekend, diminishing to
the east overnight into Monday.

As the first trough finally pushes eastward Monday, a second and
potentially deeper trough looks to follow right on its heels,
plunging south over the Rockies Monday and organizing around a
closed upper low which GFS guidance at this time resolves as
remaining intact as it pushes east from the southern Rockies over
Texas and Oklahoma by the middle of next week. At this time, impacts
on the Four State Region can be broadly outlined as a return of
showers from the southwest as soon as daybreak Tuesday, remaining
present areawide into Wednesday. Much uncertainty remains regarding
further specifics such as storm potential or the impact of
temperatures on the mode of precipitation. More information will
follow in forthcoming forecasts as model solutions become clearer.

For the most part, seasonable or just below average temperatures
look to remain the story through the long term forecast period, with
highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

IFR/MVFR cigs will begin to develop through the overnight hours
across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, and spread N across the remainder of
the region through daybreak, along and N of a warm front that will
lift N through the area. Isolated -SHRA is expected to develop
after 10Z across portions of E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK along and N of
the front, where VCSH was maintained for the area terminals. The
convection should become more numerous and gradually deepen
through the morning across E TX/SW AR ahead of an approaching
dryline, with a broken line forming and marching E across the
region from the late morning through the afternoon. Ahead of this
convection MVFR cigs should persist until after this bndry moves
through, with VFR conditions quickly returning with its passage
from W to E. Have also maintained VCTS for all but the TYR
terminal, with the last of the convection exiting MLU shortly
after 00Z Thursday. The AC cigs should also diminish behind this
bndry from W to E from the afternoon through the mid evening,
although cirrus cigs will persist through the end of the TAF
period. SSE winds 5-10kts overnight will become SSW 10-15kts with
higher gusts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  48  60 /  30  90   0   0
MLU  59  76  49  60 /  10  80  40   0
DEQ  53  71  39  55 /  30  80   0   0
TXK  63  72  44  57 /  30  90   0   0
ELD  57  71  45  56 /  20  90  10   0
TYR  63  74  45  60 /  30  80   0   0
GGG  62  73  45  60 /  30  90   0   0
LFK  65  74  45  64 /  30  90   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
115 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-181915-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
115 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe weather and heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as a much stronger upper-level trough approaches
the region. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including
tornadoes. However, damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.