Tornado Warning 59, NWS Shreveport, LA

052 
WWUS54 KSHV 111317
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
817 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

LAC043-111327-
/O.CAN.KSHV.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-230511T1330Z/
Grant LA-
817 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT PARISH IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3144 9261 3150 9266 3162 9247 3148 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 239DEG 21KT 3152 9249 

$$

20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
723 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

The onset of our heavy rain event began late last evening across
parts of Deep East Texas, but we still have several more hours to
go before the flooding threat subsides farther north and east into
North Louisiana and much of South Arkansas. Given the impressive
rain totals thus far, most notably in the area around Nacogdoches,
a flash flood warning was issued for a sizable area of Deep East
Texas where as much as 3-5 inches of rain have already fallen with
slightly more expected. This heavy rain axis will begin to expand
farther NE through the remainder of this morning so have kept the
Flood Watch intact through its scheduled expiration at 1 PM this
afternoon.

A 35-40kt LLJ will continue to pump moisture farther north and
east while the advancing upper-level trough maintains support for
lift and forcing. With PWATs still near 2 inches and a saturated
column, very productive rain rates will continue through the rest
of this morning and possibly into the early afternoon across our
eastern zones. Therefore, cannot rule out a possible extension of
the Flood Watch through late this afternoon for our easternmost
zones. This will largely depend on the speed of movement and rain
rates farther east, and the expectation is that daytime heating
should help to reinforce the convection over our eastern half by
later this morning. Meanwhile, our western zones will begin to see
convection ending by late morning into the midday timeframe with
high temperatures warming into the lower to mid 80s while cooler
readings in the mid to upper 70s are expected across the east.

By this evening, much of the region is expected to be rain-free as
the upper trough lifts farther NE out of the area. Overnight low
temperatures will generally range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Weak ridging will set up on Friday with much warmer temperatures
expected as afternoon highs will range from the mid to upper 80s.
Scattered convection can't be ruled out, however, as instability
will increase sharply into the afternoon so look for a very warm
and humid day with a summerlike feel to wrap up the work week.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

As we move into the upcoming weekend, upper ridging aloft will
extend westward from the SE CONUS, into the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and into the eastern half of our CWA. Despite that, an
unsettled weather pattern will continue across the region. As of
now, it appears the highest chances for rain will be across our
western zones, as those areas will continue to be affected by
disturbances moving along the peripheral of the ridge. This
generally includes East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and portions of SW
Arkansas, north of I-30. Can't rule out some of this convection
continuing during the evening and overnight hours. The remainder of
the region will see continued rain chances, but mostly during the
afternoon hours with the aid of peak heating. By early next week,
rain chances will remain areawide, as an upper trough will slowly
push a cool front through the region. Behind the upper trough/cold
front, drier and less humid conditions should move into the region
by the middle of next week. However, some of the latest model runs
continue to trend more wetter, keeping rain chances across portions
of the region. At this time, any organized severe weather threats
remain low during the long-term period, but an isolated threat for
damaging winds and possibly large hail, can't be ruled out. Also,
with the prolong period of rainfall, the threat for isolated
flooding will continue.

Some uncertainty still exists with the temperature forecast during
this period, mainly due to rain and cloud cover. Still thinking that
most locations will at least climb into the 80s each day, but breaks
in cloud cover and rain during the afternoon hours could result in
some locations approaching 90 degrees. Regardless, continued
southerly flow will keep muggy conditions across the area. But,
there could be some relief from the humidity by the middle of next
week behind the aforementioned upper trough/cool front.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

For the 11/12Z TAF period, cigs continue to drop across our airspace
with active convection ongoing this morning. Expect these trends to
translate farther east through the remainder of this morning as an
upper-level trough lifts farther NE across the area. Most TAF sites
will contend with SHRA with some embedded TSRA, generally through
the first half of the period before gradually diminishing in both
coverage and intensity this afternoon before clearing by evening.
Cigs will also improve late in the period with MVFR to low VFR
conditions returning, but lower cigs will make a return by 12/06Z.
Sfc winds will maintain a primary S/SE component between 5-10 kts
on average with higher gusts possible invof of convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  72  88  71 /  90   0  30  10
MLU  77  69  88  69 /  90  10  30  10
DEQ  81  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  20
TXK  81  71  88  70 /  70  10  40  20
ELD  77  68  87  68 /  90  10  30  10
TYR  85  72  89  70 /  30  10  30  20
GGG  83  72  88  70 /  60  10  30  10
LFK  85  72  89  71 /  50   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-149-121000-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith-Cherokee-
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, southeast
Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area today. An
isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, with damaging
winds being the primary threats. Localized flooding from isolated
heavy downpours remains possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the work week and into next weekend. The overall threat
of severe weather is uncertain, but the potential for an isolated
severe thunderstorm during this period cannot be ruled out. Damaging
winds, and possibly large hail, will be the primary threats with any
severe storms. Also, with a prolonged period of thunderstorms
expected, a flooding threat will remain across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LAZ013-014-019>022-121000-
Jackson-Ouachita-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area today. An
isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, with damaging
winds being the primary threats. Localized flooding from isolated
heavy downpours remains possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the work week and into next weekend. The overall threat
of severe weather is uncertain, but the potential for an isolated
severe thunderstorm during this period cannot be ruled out. Damaging
winds, and possibly large hail, will be the primary threats with any
severe storms. Also, with a prolonged period of thunderstorms
expected, a flooding threat will remain across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-018-TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
150>153-165>167-121000-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
east Texas and northeast Texas.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area today. A
Flood Watch remains in effect, as moderate to heavy rainfall could
result in flooding across the region. Also, an isolated strong to
severe storm will be possible, with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the work week and into next weekend. The overall threat
of severe weather is uncertain, but the potential for an isolated
severe thunderstorm during this period cannot be ruled out. Damaging
winds, and possibly large hail, will be the primary threats with any
severe storms. Also, with a prolonged period of thunderstorms
expected, a flooding threat will remain across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
659 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW NACOGDOCHES       31.60N 94.66W
05/11/2023                   NACOGDOCHES        TX   911 CALL CENTER

            SOUTH SIDE OF NACOGDOCHES STREETS ARE CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING. FLOODING OF ROADS
            WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                32.16N 94.34W
05/11/2023                   PANOLA             TX   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH ROADS CLOSED ALL
            ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
703 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW NACOGDOCHES       31.60N 94.66W
05/11/2023                   NACOGDOCHES        TX   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1
            SSW NACOGDOCHES. SOUTH SIDE OF NACOGDOCHES
            STREETS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. FLOODING
            OF ROADS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HENDERSON               32.16N 94.80W
05/11/2023                   RUSK               TX   911 CALL CENTER

            STREETS FLOODED ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH A FEW
            ROADS CLOSED.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
712 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TIMPSON                 31.91N 94.40W
05/11/2023                   SHELBY             TX   911 CALL CENTER

            HWY 96 NORTH OF TIMPSON IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING. NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN TIMPSON.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
737 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

LAZ010-TXZ151-153-111330-
De Soto LA-Panola TX-Shelby TX-
737 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of De Soto Parish,
southeastern Panola and northeastern Shelby Counties through 830 AM
CDT...

At 737 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Logansport, or 10 miles west of Mansfield, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Joaquin, South Mansfield, Keachi,
Grand Cane, Longstreet, Stanley, Gloster, Keat Chie, Carmel,
Frierson, Kingston, Kickapoo and Reeds Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 9402 3219 9408 3220 9404 3219 9395
      3224 9387 3230 9365 3227 9362 3224 9362
      3220 9359 3190 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 256DEG 22KT 3206 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20