Tornado Warning 57, NWS Shreveport, LA

298 
WWUS54 KSHV 110245
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARC139-110300-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230511T0300Z/
Union AR-
945 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
UNION COUNTY...
    
At 945 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Lawson, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Calion around 1015 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 9254 3316 9257 3334 9253 3334 9252
      3333 9252 3332 9253 3332 9252 3333 9250
      3332 9249 3331 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 184DEG 14KT 3320 9256 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

13

785 
WWUS54 KSHV 110251
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
951 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARC139-110301-
/O.EXP.KSHV.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230511T0300Z/
Union AR-
951 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1000
PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3316 9254 3316 9257 3334 9253 3334 9252
      3333 9252 3332 9253 3332 9252 3333 9250
      3332 9249 3331 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 208DEG 18KT 3322 9254 

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
914 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Vigorous upper level low continues to spin across the Piney Woods
of Northeast Texas late this evening and will continue to moving
slowly north and east towards the Middle Red River Valley of SE
OK, SW AR and NW LA through sunrise. As the feature moves slowly
north and east, the best forcing will be along the eastern flank
of the system, which puts far NE TX, SW AR and N LA under the risk
of training storms overnight, especially with the development of a
nocturnal low level jet, feeding the system. A multitude of high
resolution CAMs support this possible scenario so for the updated
forecast tonight, only made some minor changes to how pops were
distributed overnight as well as the first half of of Thursday.

Temperatures are very close to overnight fcst mins but given the
airmass in place, shouldn't see much more of a temperature fall
with the exception of our far northeast zones.

Update already sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Multiple bands of more intense convection are quickly developing
and moving northward across the area in association with a
slow-moving upper trough over East Texas. The development of a
30-kt low level jet this evening will help to increase the
advection of warm and moist air into the region, which should help
to sustain and intensify the stronger storms. While instability is
rather meager, low LCLs combined with increased shear near the
mid-level low could produce just enough turning for an isolated
tornado. This has already occurred north of the area this
afternoon. In addition, the stronger storms will capable of
strong, gusty winds. Wind gusts in excess of 35-40 kts were
observed at Shreveport Regional Airport with a storm. Combined
with the strong lift and intense convection, PWAT values
approaching 2 inches will result in very efficient rain producers.

Most of the models are still showing very strong QPF signals
through early Thursday morning. In particular, an axis of heavier
rainfall totals should be across the southeast half of the
forecast area, generally east of line from Lufkin, to Texarkana,
to Prescott. The latest guidance has shifted this axis east
somewhat into Northeast and Central Arkansas, so the Flood Watch
was expanded eastward to include the remainder of our Louisiana
parishes. The upper trough will continue to slowly move north-
northeast into the Ozarks on Thursday. This should take the bulk
of the heavy precip out of area by late afternoon. PoPs should
diminish in most areas by Thursday evening, but some rain chances
will linger Thursday night north of Interstate 30.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend as a
series of disturbances undercut upper ridging to our south and east.
This ridging aloft will intensify over the southeast US with the
ridge axis building westward across the Mississippi River into parts
of the Great Plains by the end of the week. After mesoscale
troughing exits the area, southwesterly flow aloft will continue
along the periphery of the ridge, maintaining ample amounts of
moisture for precipitation with precipitable water values at or
above 1.5 inches.

This wet weather pattern continues through the weekend as the next
trough quickly traverses the Baja California peninsula into Texas,
with its ejection/propagation across Texas boosting chances of
precipitation each day. Long-range guidance then suggests that the
persistent ridge over the Gulf of Mexico finally breaks down,
leaving zonal flow aloft across the area early next week. This more
progressive synoptic pattern will allow for a trough and attendant
frontal boundary to reach the area by Monday into Tuesday, boosting
precipitation chances once again.

Temperature maximums and minimums will generally remain above
average through the weekend, staying near 90 and 70 degrees
respectively. Prolonged southerly winds will maintain humid outdoors
conditions in addition to a moist atmosphere, especially at lower
levels. Additional precipitation will add up to Day 7 totals in the
2-3 inch range, with isolated higher amounts possible.

/16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Upper low across Deep East Texas today will result in very
challenging aviation forecast concerns over the next 24 hours.
While most terminals are VFR attm, that will change quickly
tonight and if high res solutions are correct, we should really
see an uptick in convective coverage and intensity overnight
across our airspace, which of course will impact terminals. Tried
to show this with the 00z TAF package with much lower ceilings,
TSRA and lower VSBYS. The good news is precipitation coverage
should end from southwest to northeast across our airspace during
the day Thursday and with that will be rapidly improving ceilings.
Look for ESE to SSE winds prevailing with speeds near 10kts
through the TAF period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  72  88 /  90  80  10  50
MLU  69  78  70  88 /  70  80  10  50
DEQ  67  81  69  86 /  80  70  30  60
TXK  68  82  71  88 /  90  80  20  60
ELD  66  77  68  87 /  90  80  10  50
TYR  68  85  72  89 /  60  30  10  50
GGG  67  83  71  88 /  80  50  10  50
LFK  68  85  71  88 /  80  40   0  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
142 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARZ050-051-059-LAZ014-019>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-149-
111845-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Ouachita-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith-
Cherokee-
142 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, north
central Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area this
afternoon and through the evening hours. An isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out, with damaging winds being the
primary threats. Localized flooding from isolated heavy downpours
remains possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the work week and into next weekend. The overall threat
of severe weather is uncertain, but the potential for an isolated
severe thunderstorm during this period cannot be ruled out. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary threats with any severe
storms. Also, with a prolonged period of thunderstorms expected,
flooding could become a threat across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LAZ013-111845-
Jackson-
142 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area this
afternoon and through the evening hours. An isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out, with damaging winds being the
primary threats. Localized flooding from isolated heavy downpours
remains possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday afternoon. Periods
of scattered thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of
the work week and into next weekend. The overall threat of severe
weather is uncertain, but the potential for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during this period cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds
and large hail will be the primary threats with any severe storms.
Also, with a prolonged period of thunderstorms expected, flooding
could become a threat across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-018-TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
150>153-165>167-111845-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
142 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area this
afternoon and through the evening hours. A Flood Watch is in effect,
as moderate to heavy rainfall today could result in flooding across
the region. Also, an isolated strong to severe storm will be
possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat. However, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday afternoon.
Periods of scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the work week and into next weekend. The overall threat
of severe weather is uncertain, but the potential for an isolated
severe thunderstorm during this period cannot be ruled out. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary threats with any severe
storms. Also, with a prolonged period of thunderstorms expected, a
flooding threat continues to increase across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
433 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARZ059>061-070-102215-
Hempstead AR-Little River AR-Miller AR-Nevada AR-
433 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Little
River, Hempstead, northeastern Miller and northwestern Nevada
Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 433 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Perrytown to 7 miles east of Mandeville.
Movement was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hope, Prescott, Emmet, Blevins, Perrytown, Fulton, Washington, McNab,
Oakhaven, Sutton, Millwood, Hervey, Homan and Red Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 9344 3360 9339 3343 9389 3369 9404
      3375 9388 3375 9383 3377 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 167DEG 17KT 3362 9350 3350 9385

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
534 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARZ059-102300-
Little River AR-
534 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Little River
County through 600 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Richmond to near Ashdown to near Ogden.
Movement was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ashdown, Wilton, Ogden, Richmond, Millwood, Arden and Pine Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 9406 3378 9404 3375 9404 3375 9396
      3374 9397 3371 9396 3373 9395 3356 9396
      3358 9397 3355 9398 3360 9412 3358 9424
      3359 9424 3358 9428 3357 9429 3358 9429
      3356 9433 3379 9438 3380 9418 3379 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 175DEG 19KT 3362 9426 3364 9413 3362 9405

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
835 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

TXZ153-166-167-110200-
Sabine TX-San Augustine TX-Shelby TX-
835 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Shelby,
northeastern San Augustine and northwestern Sabine Counties through
900 PM CDT...

At 834 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patroon, or 17 miles southeast of Center, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bland Lake, Patroon, Huxley, Hurstown, Sexton and Jordans Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Toledo Bend on the north end, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 9412 3188 9396 3183 9388 3181 9387
      3180 9384 3177 9382 3175 9384 3173 9381
      3171 9382 3170 9380 3167 9381 3167 9383
      3162 9382 3161 9384 3159 9383 3149 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 213DEG 18KT 3160 9399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
850 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARZ073-LAZ006-110215-
Union AR-Union LA-
850 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Union
County in south central Arkansas and northwestern Union Parishes
through 915 PM CDT...

At 850 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cooley, or 9 miles southeast of Junction City, moving north at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Urbana, Lawson, Spearsville, Lillie, Hillsboro, Lockhart,
Taylorville and Catesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 9251 3290 9268 3323 9268 3320 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 190DEG 19KT 3295 9258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
919 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

LAZ010-017-110245-
De Soto LA-Sabine LA-
919 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern De Soto
and northwestern Sabine Parishes through 945 PM CDT...

At 918 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Converse, or 15 miles southwest of Mansfield,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, South Mansfield, Grand Cane and Stanley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 9384 3177 9382 3180 9384 3181 9387
      3184 9388 3186 9389 3187 9388 3188 9390
      3190 9390 3189 9392 3189 9393 3191 9392
      3191 9394 3215 9385 3203 9357 3173 9379
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 204DEG 22KT 3185 9385

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
921 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

ARZ073-110300-
Union AR-
921 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Union County
through 1000 PM CDT...

At 920 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lawson, or 9 miles southeast of El Dorado, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Calion, Urbana, Lawson, Hillsboro and Pigeon Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 9250 3309 9265 3337 9264 3336 9260
      3337 9259 3337 9255 3333 9252 3332 9252
      3333 9250 3332 9249 3333 9248 3332 9246
      3331 9247 3330 9246 3329 9247 3327 9244
      3328 9238 3330 9236 3329 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 192DEG 20KT 3312 9256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24