Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates a well-defined warm front
extending from just N of IAH, to S of JAS, to near DRI, S of AEX,
to near HEZ to just S of JAN as of 15Z, indicative of the more
extensive cu field noted on the visible satellite imagery. The
short term progs remain consistent with the front gradually
shifting N into Deep E TX, WCntrl into NE LA by mid to late
afternoon, and will focus an area of scattered to numerous
convection development shortly after 18Z especially as a weakness
embedded in the SW flow aloft enhances large scale ascent along
the front. The extent of convection development will determine the
extent of Nwd movement of the front, although the air mass to its
N should be shallow enough to allow the convection to mix the
warmer air aloft down to the sfc. The higher SBCape (1000-1500
J/kg) should reside S of the front across our Srn CWA fringe over
Deep E TX/Cntrl LA, although steep lapse rates aloft will drive
updraft intensities such that large hail would be the more favored
threat especially across Cntrl LA, over portions of the Slight and
Enhanced Risk areas. The convection should begin to wane by or
shortly after 00Z across these areas as the greatest ascent shifts
E of the area.

Did make some minor adjustments to pops across Deep E TX/NCntrl
LA, especially to take pop mention out this morning before ramping
up during the afternoon. Also raised max temps a bit especially
along/N of I-20 where strong insolation and a return SSErly low
level flow should yield similar if not slightly warmer temps than
what was observed Saturday. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is in good shape.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

VFR conditions will continue through much of the TAF period,
although cu cigs will quickly spread NNE across E TX/N LA through
the afternoon, along and N of a warm front that will move into
Deep E TX/NCntrl LA by mid to late afternoon. Scattered convection
continues to increase near this front over SE TX, which will
expand NE int Deep E TX/NCntrl LA through the afternoon, possibly
affecting the LFK/SHV/MLU terminals. Have tempoed in thunder for
the affected terminals, although this will quickly diminish from W
to E over E TX by late afternoon, and over N LA by early to mid
evening. MVFR cigs may accompany the convection especially at LFK
and S of I-20 in N LA before lifting, although IFR cigs may
briefly develop here and across Cntrl LA after the departure of
the convection before a cold front arrives and pushes through the
region overnight, thus clearing any remaining cigs from NW to SE.
Some cirrus will increase from the W overnight through Monday
morning, although VFR conditions are expected through much of
Monday. SE winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb this
evening, before becoming NW 5-10kts late with the fropa. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  56  78  57 /  20  10  10  30
MLU  82  57  76  56 /  50  30  10  30
DEQ  80  47  72  50 /   0  10  10  30
TXK  82  52  74  53 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  82  51  74  51 /  20  10  10  30
TYR  82  54  77  56 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  82  54  78  56 /  20  10  10  30
LFK  80  58  83  59 /  40  10  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
530 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
530 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across
portions of deep east Texas and north central Louisiana. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out during the
afternoon and early evening hours across these areas, with damaging
winds and large hail the main threats. These showers and
thunderstorms will diminish through the late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms look to return to the ArkLaTex overnight
Monday into Tuesday, and again late in the week. At this time, no
specific hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     HAIL             5 W HALL SUMMIT         32.18N 93.39W
03/26/2023  E0.75 INCH       RED RIVER          LA   STORM CHASER

            OFF HWY 71 NEAR HALL SUMMIT.

&&

AS

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