Severe Thunderstorm Warning 463, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
423 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Ongoing convection along and north of the I-30 corridor early this
morning will continue to make steady SE progress over the next few
hours, nearing I-20 by daybreak as the lead shortwave shifts south.
Although a few severe thunderstorm warnings were issued earlier as
these storms entered McCurtain County in SE Oklahoma, more recent
trends have exhibited some slight weakening with gusty winds near
30-35 mph and small hail still possible as a modestly unstable air
mass remains in place. Dew points range from the upper 60s to mid
70s as southerly winds continue feed Gulf moisture northward from
the coast. As a result, PWATs are in the 1.5-2" range and highest
where convection is currently ongoing.

The difficulty with today's forecast is trying to determine how
long and how far south current convection will manage to survive
before gradually dissipating as it encounters a less favorable
environment farther south. Of course, this will also largely play
into the temperature forecast with decent recovery expected this
afternoon as highs should range from the mid and upper 80s north
to the lower and mid 90s south. This expected recovery should be
sufficient for rapid destabilization once again by late afternoon
into this evening as the main shortwave pivots south across the
Middle Red River Valley with another round of widespread showers
and thunderstorms, some possibly severe mainly across the NW half
of the region with large hail and damaging winds possible.

In addition to the renewed severe threat later today and tonight,
heavy rainfall and localized flooding also remain a concern for
mainly our extreme NW zones where a Flood Watch remains in effect
through this evening. An additional 2-3 inches of rainfall cannot
be ruled out across the areas while lesser amounts closer to an
inch are expected farther south with some isolated higher totals,
owing to the slow-moving frontal boundary which will help maintain
rain chances through Monday. Temperatures should be notably cooler
on Monday as highs will generally range through the 80s as clouds
and rain will remain plentiful.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Monday evening will see weak surface high pressure edging into NW AR
at 1017mb. The parent upper low will be moving into the Great Lakes
region of the country keeping the troughing down the MS River
valley. Morning lows will see a hearty range of 60s across the
region. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s north and
upper 80s along and south of I-20. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over
Mexico is poised to lift back into Texas, but we will still have
some ongoing showers and thunderstorms during Tuesday, that will be
winding down quickly overnight. The parent upper low will migrate
over IL/IN into midweek with the tail end of convergence clearing
our southern tier of parishes by Wednesday daybreak. Winds will be
light NE over the freshly wet soil and clearing skies, giving rise
(literally) to some daybreak fog in our river valley cool spots.

Morning lows for mid to late week will keep that large range of
lower 60s north to mid and upper 60s south. All average fair climate-
wise during late September. Our winds will start to veer from NE to
E/SE as the week ends, narrowing the range of slightly warming
morning lows by Friday. Afternoon maximum temps will keep in check,
but warm back to just above average with a few more lower 90s
generally south of I-20. Average pressure awaits with our upper
level pattern weak between two deepening lows over the country.
These two systems will be slow to go with the large upper core over
the Atlantic seaboard retrograding back inland, keeping us locked in
a col aloft with weak surface high pressure building back down the
MS River valley for early week after next, this will be keeping our
pattern dry for the most part to end the month and get into October
on the dry side once again.

/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

For the 24/06Z TAF period, expect an increasingly active terminal
forecast as convection begins to impact much of our airspace later
this morning and into much of the day on Sunday. This will likely
occur in two separate rounds, with the first arriving this morning
as a complex of showers and thunderstorms shift south from eastern
Oklahoma and the Ozarks. A second round should begin to organize
by late this afternoon into this evening with severe thunderstorms
possible during both rounds. For now, have generally shown a trend
of VCTS becoming TSRA at most sites through this morning followed
by VCTS once again this afternoon and evening to account for the
second round. Cigs/vsbys will generally remain VFR outside of any
convection, but some lower stratus is possible later this morning
with VFR cigs as a frontal boundary remains stalled invof of I-20.
Winds will maintain a S/SE component for much of the period except
during convective periods when winds will vary with higher gusts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  85  70 /  70  90  80  40
MLU  89  71  84  68 /  50  70  80  40
DEQ  85  67  85  62 /  80  80  50  10
TXK  87  69  82  65 /  80  90  70  20
ELD  84  68  81  64 /  80  80  80  30
TYR  95  72  85  69 /  60  90  70  20
GGG  93  70  84  68 /  70  90  80  30
LFK  96  70  88  69 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
358 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

ARZ050-059-OKZ077-TXZ097-240930-
Sevier AR-Little River AR-McCurtain OK-Bowie TX-
358 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER...
SOUTHWESTERN SEVIER...SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN AND NORTHWESTERN BOWIE
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM CDT...

At 358 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Broken Bow, or 16 miles west of Horatio, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Horatio, Foreman, Idabel, Broken Bow, Winthrop, Arkinda, Haworth,
Bokhoma, Eagletown, Almont, Moon, Cerrogordo, Beaverdams, Goodlake,
Harris, Goodwater, Shinewell, Tom, America, and West Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas...southeastern Oklahoma...and northeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 9417 3353 9466 3365 9475 3370 9475
      3372 9476 3373 9475 3373 9478 3374 9479
      3374 9481 3377 9482 3376 9483 3389 9493
      3411 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 319DEG 29KT 3393 9464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
414 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ077-TXZ096-240945-
McCurtain OK-Red River TX-
414 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCCURTAIN AND NORTH
CENTRAL RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 414 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Broken Bow, or 31 miles east of Hugo, moving southeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Idabel, Broken Bow, Wright City, Valliant, Millerton, Garvin, Farmers
Hill, Negley, Redland, Silver City, Holly Creek, Glover, Slim,
Albion, Oak Hill, and Golden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma...and northeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 9448 3368 9507 3402 9516 3410 9516
      3411 9515 3424 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 326DEG 39KT 3408 9497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
430 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

ARZ050-059-OKZ077-TXZ097-241000-
Sevier AR-Little River AR-McCurtain OK-Bowie TX-
430 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LITTLE RIVER...SOUTHWESTERN
SEVIER...SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN AND CENTRAL BOWIE COUNTIES THROUGH
500 AM CDT...

At 430 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Winthrop to near Foreman to near De Kalb.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ashdown, New Boston, Foreman, Hooks, De Kalb, Wilton, Winthrop, Ben
Lomond, Arkinda, Richmond, Leary, Almont, Spring Hill, Beaverdams,
Wallace, Arden, Red Bank, and Pine Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas...southeastern Oklahoma...and northeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 9404 3346 9420 3329 9453 3360 9472
      3374 9452 3394 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 323DEG 22KT 3387 9435 3365 9441 3356 9464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

53