Severe Thunderstorm Warning 433, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
321 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

It's been a busy afternoon dealing with a loosely organized
thunderstorm complex advancing east down a wide corridor along and
north of I-20 and putting down pockets of damaging winds.
Scattered thunderstorms are also popping up around the periphery
of the complex with high instability and some dry air aloft
raising the potential for microbursts and downbursts. This
activity should be clearing our region this evening with late
night convection a very low probability. Temperatures are already
cooling off a good deal in the wake of the thunderstorm complex
moving through and temperatures, generally, tonight should be some
of the coolest we've seen in many areas in a while (although still
we are only talking about lows ranging from 70 to 76). Some
pockets of shallow late night fog and/or low clouds are possible
as well, especially in the locations which received (or will
receive) a lot of rain today.

Tomorrow the stalled and weak boundary across the region which was
a focus for the thunderstorm complex today will be lifting to the
north. Guidance still suggests the moisture and instability
pooling up near this boundary could get some isolated to scattered
daytime showers and storms going over northern and eastern zones,
but to the southwest of there there the building upper ridge will
have far more influence. This ridge influence in at least
southwestern zones will likely necessitate another Heat Advisory
being needed there, although we will defer issuance of another
Heat Advisory to the overnight shift because there is uncertainty
of how much of the area will meet this criteria tomorrow. Also
there are some indications in southwestern zones of increased
mixing out of low level moisture in the afternoon as southwest
winds kick in. This increased mixing will likely eventually happen
as the week goes on, but whether or not it will show itself
tomorrow will also come into the decision tonight on what heat
products are needed where. /50/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Dangerous heat will continue through the week across the Four State
Region before relief begins to arrive by next weekend. Upper-level
ridging will obviously play a major role in the spatiotemporal
magnitude of both heat and precipitation this week due to its
evolution in shape and position, starting roughly centered over the
Southern Rocky Mountains and Southwest Borderlands. By Thursday,
that ridge shape will have expanded eastward--across Texas towards
the Mississippi River Valley--into a more elongated orientation that
ultimately inhibits precipitation and keeps temperature maximums in
the upper 90s/lower 100s. Heat hazard products are likely in this
time frame, but regardless of exactly where and when, you should pay
extra attention to the cumulative amount of heat stress that is
possible through multiple days (as well as dusk hours). Adequate
precautions are encouraged to be taken against the elevated
potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to)
altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be
outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the
signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Medium-range guidance suggests that the elongated ridge orientation
begins to break down by Friday, flattening out before retrograding
back into the Southern Rocky Mountains. This opens the door for
northwesterly flow to return and subsequently increased chances of
precipitation by the weekend. Long-range guidance suggests the
possibility of a frontal boundary approaching the area by that time,
further boosting precipitation chances across more of the region
while moderating temperature maximums into the low-to-mid 90s for
some heat relief. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

A developing thunderstorm cluster presently coming into the
Arklatex will impact most TAF sites (except probably not LFK)
through the afternoon. TXK/SHV sites will probably be impacted
most significantly with 40+ mph wind gusts possible, as well as
significant lightning and torrential downpours. Other sites will
have potential for showers and storms, although a significant
impact at those airports is more questionable. At least brief
MVFR conditions due to visibilities and ceilings are possible at
sites getting a thunderstorm. Expect activity to be transitioning
clear of the area from west to east from later this afternoon
through early this evening with mostly quiet and partly cloudy
conditions anticipated for most of the overnight. We cannot rule
out the potential for patchy category restrictions around daybreak
tomorrow at locations which received a lot of rainfall today, but
potential is not very high at this point. Tomorrow expect partly
cloudy skies with southwest winds building in. Potential for
storms tomorrow will be less and mainly confined to ELD and MLU.
/50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  78 100 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  73  96  76  99 /  30  40  10   0
DEQ  72  95  74  98 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  74  96  78 100 /  10  20   0   0
ELD  71  93  74  97 /  20  30   0   0
TYR  76 100  79 102 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  98  78 101 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  76 101  77 102 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ126-137-138-
     150>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1115 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-149-
171615-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-
Cass-Wood-Upshur-Smith-Cherokee-
1115 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for the entire
region, with damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with slower moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Upper-level ridging really sets in by Monday, with extended heat
headlines likely into next weekend. Most of the region will reach at
least Heat Advisory criteria, with Excessive Heat warnings possible.
Thunderstorm chances will also return into next weekend as upper-
level ridging begins to break down.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-137-138-150>153-165>167-171615-
Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Union-De Soto-Red River-
Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-
La Salle-Marion-Gregg-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Angelina-San Augustine-
1115 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana,
northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The existing Heat Advisory has been expanded, with it remaining in
effect until 7PM Sunday. Afternoon heat index values should range
between 105 to 109 degrees. Elsewhere, a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms is in effect for the entire region, with damaging winds
being the primary severe weather threat. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible with slower moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Upper-level ridging really sets in by Monday, with extended heat
headlines likely into next weekend. Most of the region will reach at
least Heat Advisory criteria, with Excessive Heat warnings possible.
Thunderstorm chances will also return into next weekend as upper-
level ridging begins to break down.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

16

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