Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1245 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

As of the 02Z hour, severe thunderstorms across central to
southeastern Arkansas are hugging the SHV CWA border to our
northeast. Currently monitoring the potential, as suggested by
short-range CAMs, for convective initiation to the west of the
existing line, which would be poised to impact our far
northeastern zones in southern Arkansas over the coming hours and
potentially overnight as the convection spreads further south by
morning. To that end, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #385 remains in
effect until 2:00 AM Monday morning for Sevier, Hempstead,
Howard, Nevada and Union Counties in Arkansas and Union Parish in
Louisiana. Damaging winds and large hail look to be the primary
threats associated with these storms

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Area CU field continues to hold across the region this afternoon
as sfc southerlies and ample moisture advection northward prevails
ahead of the sfc cold front currently advancing through Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas. For the second time this afternoon, an
outflow boundary has cut across the region, this time across east
Texas sparking some minor CI between Tyler and Lufkin. The
combination of the boundaries, mixing and the additional CU
coverage may suggest why area temperatures have trended lower than
initially expected this afternoon with much of the region seeing
low to mid 90s. Regardless, latest 19z obs continue to show area
dew points exceeding the advertised guidance, in the upper 70s.
With dew points this high, both the heat advisory and the
excessive heat warning criteria have verified as area heat indices
are between 105-109 deg F with select sites at or just above 110
deg F.

Evening Severe Threat...Instability and destabilization continues
to evolve across the region this afternoon and ahead of the
aforementioned sfc cold front north of the FA. Mesoanalysis
advertises MUCAPE between 5000-5500 J/kg with mid-level lapse rate
between 7.5-8 deg C/km and DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. A 20z RAOB
will reflect on this when available shortly. CAMs to this point
have suggested CI along the boundary in the next several hours
across northern Arkansas, developing into an MCS and advancing
rapidly to the south, posing the threat for damaging wind and
hail across the NE tier of the CWA where an Enhanced Risk has been
issued, with a Slight and Marginal risk along the I-30 corridor
and southeast.

To this point, discrepancy in timing, location and intensity have
been the main problems in enhancing confidence. Unfortunately,
hourly hi-res solutions have made this more uncertain with recent
trends weakening the advertised complex. Bottom line, staying
aware of the forecast this evening and overnight is a must. Be
sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts as this is a late
evening and overnight scenario. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch does
currently border our northern zones, so downstream watch issuance
may be needed later this evening if the complex can develop and
maintain strength.

Monday and Heat Hazards...If redevelopment ahead of sunrise
prevails, convection may linger around through 7/8 AM as some
guidance suggests. Low clouds are expected to remain in place for
a few hours after sunrise, similar to this morning prior to
lifting and scattering out by the afternoon allowing for another
day of advertised heat in the upper 90s, and near the triple
digits as the upper-level ridge advances east. Elected to extend
the present Heat Advisory through 7 PM Monday as the odds of
meeting the 105-109 deg F threshold are likely. When it comes to
Excessive Heat Warnings, this will be sat on for the time being to
see how the overnight MCS situation plays out and will be
determined no later than the overnight package. By Monday evening,
some guidance suggests the development of showers and a few
thunderstorms once more across the eastern and northeast zones
along the boundary, rounding the NE periphery of the advancing
upper-level ridge from the west. Storms may again present the
risk of hail and gusty winds. Convection should decay though
around sunrise and any remaining showers or thunderstorms will be
east of the FA as the ridge builds in.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Hot and dry conditions to prevail through much of the long-term
period. An upper-level ridge centered across Texas will gradually
build east becoming firmly established across the ArkLaTex by
Wednesday. Subsidence resulting from the upper-ridge will support
high temperatures from 100 to 105 degrees from Tuesday through
Friday with skies remaining mostly clear. With dewpoint values
averaging in the lower 70s through the workweek, heat index values
will be of concern across the entire ArkLaTex. Thus, successive Heat
Advisories will likely be necessary throughout the week.

Oppressive heat to continue through the early part of the weekend,
but with slightly less intensity as the upper-level ridge begins to
flatten in response to an upper-trough forecast to slide east across
the region on Saturday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible on Saturday evening into Sunday in conjunction with
the upper-trough and a southward moving cold front. Airmass
replacement building behind the front will allow for much cooler
temperatures from Saturday into Sunday across the majority of the
region. High temperatures on Saturday to range from the lower 90s
across the Ouachitas to around 100 degrees across the lakes region
of deep east Texas into North Louisiana. By Sunday, high temps to
dip a little further with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s
north of I-30 to the mid to upper 90s across deep east Texas and
west-central Louisiana.
/05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

VFR conditions across the region, but some cloud debris from
thunderstorms have moved into KELD/KMLU. So far, upper ridging
over the area has kept storms from moving into the region.
However, models continue to suggest some convection will move into
our northern zones overnight into the early morning hours.
Therefore, decided to add VCTS/TSRA at KTXK/KELD/KMLU/KSHV.
Convection should clear by mid-morning, with some lingering mid to
high clouds. Eventually, VFR conditions will return, with some few
to scattered afternoon CU, before skies clear near sunset. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 101  80 102 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  77  99  78 102 /  20  10   0  10
DEQ  74  97  75 100 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  78 100  79 102 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  74  97  76 101 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  79 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
219 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

ARZ050-OKZ077-260815-
Sevier AR-McCurtain OK-
219 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Sevier
and northeastern McCurtain Counties through 315 AM CDT...

At 219 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Octavia, or 26 miles northwest of De Queen, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
De Queen, Gillham, Hochatown, Eagletown and West Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 9447 3419 9447 3419 9434 3412 9424
      3394 9449 3429 9482 3442 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0719Z 316DEG 21KT 3431 9468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19