Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Upper-level ridging over Mexico and an upper trough over the
Great Lakes will continue to maintain subtle northwesterly flow
over East Texas and Louisiana through the evening. Flow aloft will
become more zonal Wednesday in response to a shortwave traversing
the Plains that should serve to flatten the ridge.

The anticipated lull in morning convection never quite
materialized amid a WAA regime, as elevated supercells have
continued to develop over northeast TX over the past few hours,
migrating southeastward into the Arklatex and across northern
Louisiana. The CAMs show a varied coverage of activity this
afternoon, though with a surface boundary reinforced by remnant
outflows, lingering near the I-20 corridor, and embedded mid-level
perturbations passing overhead the potential for additional
convective development is moderately high. Daytime
heating/destabilization of the moist boundary layer (dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s) will contribute to MUCAPE exceeding
2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kts will be more
than sufficient to sustain updrafts through the afternoon and
into the evening. The main severe threats through the period will
continue to be large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts to
70 mph. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280 in in effect for portions
of southern Arkansas, northwest and north central Louisiana, and
Northeast Texas through 6 PM.

A moderate LLJ developing later tonight, is likely to support
additional elevated thunderstorm development as warm advection
continues. By daybreak Wednesday, convection will likely be
ongoing as the overnight clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms continue to migrate eastward across the region.
Large hail will be the main hazard with these storms. As
anticipated, today's temperatures during peak heating are being
moderated by cooling associated with ongoing convection and
associated lingering cloudiness, resulting in highs ranging from
the mid/upper 70s in our northern zones to the low/mid 90s in the
south. /12/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Update:
(Thursday through next Tuesday Night)

Forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track, so no
significant changes were made apart from minor adjustments to rain
chances across the northern and eastern zones Thursday and Friday
before upper level ridging dominates and early summer heat builds
in. Subsequent forecast updates will likely need to consider the
potential for a Heat Advisory across portions of the area Thursday
onward as triple digit temperatures and max heat index values are
likely daily during peak heating late this week into early next
week. /12/

Previous Discussion:
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

By Wednesday night, the threat of severe weather should be largely
diminishing across our region as the last in a series of shortwave
disturbances gradually shifts from the Middle Red River Valley into
the Lower MS Valley and points eastward. At least for the evening
hours, anticipate scattered convection to remain active over mainly
the northern and eastern parts of our region as the shortwave shifts
overhead invof the persistent quasi-stationary frontal boundary. So
despite the general downward trend in convection expected later in
overnight hours, cannot completely rule out a few strong or even an
isolated severe storm through the evening as the shortwave interacts
with the sfc boundary. Once again, this would likely be across those
northern and eastern zones, including much of southern Arkansas and
northern Louisiana.

Beyond Wednesday night, rain chances will really begin to drop off
overall as a dominant upper-level ridge axis to our SW across Mexico
begins to exert even greater influence across our region. This won't
entirely eliminate the chance of diurnally-driven convection across
the region, but daily coverage should be largely confined to our far
northern and eastern zones by late week into the upcoming weekend.

Of course, the bigger headline will involve the building heat wave
that is expected to commence during this late week timeframe with
high temperatures expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s for
nearly the entire region except for possibly our extreme northern
counties. Regardless, it appears the upper-level ridge will serve to
keep any fronts north of the region and therefore limit convection
for most areas. In fact, there is still some chance that isolated
triple-digit high temperatures could occur in our southern zones by
the end of this week and into the weekend given the strength of the
ridge axis. This may very well result in our first heat advisories
of the season if this indeed pans out by the time we wrap up the
week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

A complex forecast is in store for the next 24 hours as a frontal
boundary bisects the forecast area. Mostly VFR conditions will
continue through the rest of the afternoon into this evening with
locations north of the boundary (KTXK and KELD) keeping
intermittent IFR/MVFR cigs for the next few hours. Scattered
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through this afternoon
and into the overnight across the region. A few storms may become
strong to severe and will be capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall.

MVFR, possibly IFR, cigs look to return later tonight and into
Wednesday morning. Thunderstorm activity should begin pushing off
to the east toward the end of this TAF period with
cigs/visibilities improving by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  10
MLU  71  92  71  93 /  50  50  60  30
DEQ  66  85  66  92 /  70  50  40  10
TXK  70  88  71  94 /  70  50  40  10
ELD  67  87  68  90 /  70  60  70  20
TYR  72  92  74  97 /  40  40  20  10
GGG  72  91  73  95 /  40  50  20  10
LFK  74  96  75  98 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...WFO FWD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

ARZ059-070>072-LAZ001>004-010>012-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
150-151-141945-
Little River-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-
Claiborne-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, northwest
Louisiana and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today through tonight as
a stationary front continues to linger across the region. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but an
isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out across parts of the
I-20 and I-30 corridors. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also
pose a threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that
train over the same areas, especially along the I-30 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
through Wednesday and Wednesday night as the frontal boundary is
expected to remain nearly stationary and linger across the region.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain possible. An isolated
tornado also cannot be ruled out.

By late week and through the weekend, thunderstorm chances will
decrease while temperatures increase into the mid and upper 90s to
near 100 degrees with heat advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again
on Wednesday.

ARZ050-051-060-061-OKZ077-141945-
Sevier-Howard-Hempstead-Nevada-McCurtain-
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today through tonight as
a stationary front continues to linger across the region. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but an
isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out across parts of the
I-20 and I-30 corridors. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also
pose a threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that
train over the same areas, especially along the I-30 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
through Wednesday and Wednesday night as the frontal boundary is
expected to remain nearly stationary and linger across the region.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain possible. An isolated
tornado also cannot be ruled out.

By late week and through the weekend, thunderstorm chances will
decrease while temperatures increase into the mid and upper 90s to
near 100 degrees with heat advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again
on Wednesday.

TXZ149-152-165>167-141945-
Cherokee-Nacogdoches-Angelina-San Augustine-Sabine-
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east Texas and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today through tonight as
a stationary front continues to linger across the region. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but an
isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out across parts of the
I-20 and I-30 corridors. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also
pose a threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that
train over the same areas, especially along the I-30 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
through Wednesday and Wednesday night as the frontal boundary is
expected to remain nearly stationary and linger across the region.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain possible. An isolated
tornado also cannot be ruled out.

By late week and through the weekend, thunderstorm chances will
decrease while temperatures increase into the mid and upper 90s to
near 100 degrees with heat advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again
on Wednesday.

ARZ073-LAZ005-006-013-014-017>022-TXZ153-141945-
Union-Lincoln-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Shelby-
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas, north
central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today through tonight as
a stationary front continues to linger across the region. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but an
isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out across parts of the
I-20 and I-30 corridors. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also
pose a threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that
train over the same areas, especially along the I-30 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
through Wednesday and Wednesday night as the frontal boundary is
expected to remain nearly stationary and linger across the region.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain possible. An isolated
tornado also cannot be ruled out.

By late week and through the weekend, thunderstorm chances will
decrease while temperatures increase into the mid and upper 90s to
near 100 degrees with heat advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again
on Wednesday.

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