Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

As expected, the morning/early afternoon convection has
convectively reinforced the cool/stable air mass across much of E
TX/Cntrl LA this afternoon, although the air mass has begun to
modify some as the warm front has begun to lift N into portions of
Deep E and the Wrn sections of E TX. This is evident in the lower
to mid 60s isodrosotherms having recently advected back N into
these areas, as well as some scattering of the cu field noted on
the visible satellite imagery. However, time is running out on
the advancement of the warm sector N across E TX/N LA, as
elevated convection has become numerous and spread E into NE TX
along and N of I-20, which should help to again convective
reinforce the front from mixing much farther N during the evening.
An isolated severe threat currently exists across the I-20
corridor of E TX, as bulk shear near 50kts and 2-6km lapse rates
remain steep atop the warm front that is orientated farther S.
However, believe that the main focus for severe convection will
occur this evening through a portion of the overnight hours as
convection continues to deepen ahead of a sfc low between ABI and
COM, which will shift E along a W to E sfc bndry convectively
reinforced to near and just S of the I-20 corridor from the DFW
Metroplex into E TX/NW LA. This will occur once large scale ascent
increases along these sfc features ahead of the closed low over
the TX Panhandle, which will eject NE into Wrn OK during the
evening. The HRRR remains consistent with earlier runs (and in
better agreement than the other CAMs) with the convection entering
the Wrn sections of E TX by the early to mid evening hours, with
the moderate SBCapes expected to spread a bit farther N into E TX
by that time. Thus, the convection should begin to intensify as it
approaches Lower E TX, as it transitions potentially into a SE
propagating MCS across Deep E TX/WCntrl LA during the late evening
through a portion of the overnight hours.

Have trimmed back the severe wording to these areas tonight, but
also expanded on the heavy rain mention as consensus amongst the
short term progs suggest that widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3+
inches is possible across much of E TX/Srn AR into portions of N
LA. The storm intensities should gradually diminish overnight as
the instability wanes, and a potential convective cold pool shifts
ESE across the region in wake of the convection. The convection
remains progged to diminish after daybreak Thursday across Cntrl
LA, although the opening low will remain conducive for additional
isolated to scattered convection development during the day over
the region although this should diminish from W to E as drier air
begins to entrain ENE beneath the opening trough. Did taper back
max temps slightly Thursday afternoon given the extent of wrap-
around cloud cover which looks to linger through a better part of
the day, before drier air begins to mix ESE into the region late
in the day with the passage of a weak cold front. A return to
below normal temps is expected as the cigs scatter out Thursday
night, with cool conditions returning through the overnight
period.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Friday morning will see the quiet conditions in the wake of
Thursday's showers and storms continue for a brief window of time.
The break in the rainfall looks to be short-lived, however, as the
unsettled pattern which brings our mid-week storms will continue
late into the week. Upper level flow around a broad area of
troughing reaching from the Rockies in the west to the Appalachians
in the east will sweep Thursday's trough away to the north and east,
with another shortwave quickly on the way, pushing south along the
Front Range and into north Texas, with a closed low potentially
cutting off by late Saturday. This feature will provide the forcing
necessary for another round of showers and possible storms to begin
as soon as Friday afternoon north and west, expanding areawide
overnight and remaining with the ArkLaTex through the day Saturday
before finally clearing out overnight into Sunday as the closed low
opens back into a shortwave and is absorbed by the larger area of
troughing still situated over the Great Lakes region early next
week.

Temperatures will be fairly variable through the long term period,
with a slight rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s Friday before
Saturday's rainfall keeps highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday
will see a return to more seasonable temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s, with quieter, drier conditions and a slight warming trend
to follow into early next week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

VFR conditions will continue across N LA/SW AR through the
remainder of the afternoon, although MVFR cigs have developed
across portions of E TX, in wake of the rains that fell earlier
this morning. However, some cig deterioration will continue
across E TX this afternoon as areas of convection continues to
develop/spread NE generally along/N of the I-20 corridor into SE
OK/SW AR. Have tempoed thunder in for TYR/GGG through the
afternoon, with the expectation that the convection will
backbuild/develop farther SSW into a more humid/unstable air mass
S of a warm front that is slowly lifting N across Cntrl and ECntrl
TX. The convection will increase into a more organized line as
surge E across the region this evening/overnight, affecting
LFK/SHV/TXK by late evening to just after 06Z, and ELD/MLU during
the overnight hours, producing IFR/low MVFR cigs and reduced
vsbys. Believe that this MCS will scour out the low cigs with its
passage, with the potential for VFR conditions temporarily
returning to the area until just after daybreak Thursday, at which
point IFR cigs will redevelop. ESE winds 8-12kts with occasional
higher gusts will continue this afternoon through much of the
overnight hours. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  74  53  81 / 100  30   0   0
MLU  62  78  57  80 / 100  60  10   0
DEQ  55  69  48  78 /  90  50   0  10
TXK  56  72  51  79 / 100  30   0  10
ELD  56  74  53  78 / 100  50  10   0
TYR  60  72  52  81 / 100  20   0  10
GGG  60  73  52  81 / 100  20   0  10
LFK  63  76  53  84 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening, continuing overnight tonight. Hail and damaging winds look
to be the primary threats associated with these storms.

Additionally, areas of training torrential rainfall may lead to
flash flooding across the ArkLaTex, particularly along the I-20
corridor of east Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue overnight into early
Thursday morning. Hail and damaging winds will continue to be the
primary threats. Storms will come to an end from west to east into
Thursday, after which no further hazardous weather is expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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