Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

A warm front has been the source for convection across the I-20
corridor early this evening. Elevated storms along and north of
the front could produce large hail over the next few hours.
However, a transition is expected to occur later this evening as
the low-level jet increases producing sufficient shear to produce
tornadoes with some storms. Thus, a tornado watch is now in
effect for much of east Texas and north Louisiana through 1 AM.
/05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Thunderstorms have started to develop along a dryline in western
north Texas this afternoon and will gradually push eastward
towards our area during the remainder of the afternoon. Additional
development may occur across deep east Texas and into northwest
Louisiana during the late afternoon hours, with the rest of the
storms expected to reach the western portion of our CWA by early
evening. So things could get busy in the next few hours across our
region. SPC has upgraded the threat for severe weather this
afternoon across east Texas, painting an Enhanced risk for
portions of Smith, north Cherokee, Rusk, Gregg, Harrison, Upshur,
Camp, and Wood counties. A Slight Risk then covers the rest of our
east Texas counties, most of our Louisiana Parishes, and parts of
southwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.

All modes of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours. However, thinking the greater tornado
threat will be across east Texas with hail and wind being the main
threat elsewhere. In addition, a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall remains in place for much of our area. We could see
upwards of 2-3 inches across portions of the area as thunderstorms
move through. While our area has not been inundated with rainfall
as of late, this could bring a isolated Flash Flood threat to
flood prone areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours,
clearing from west to east after midnight before clearing the
early in the early morning hours Monday. Dry conditions will then
settle in, at least through Monday night. In the wake of our
passing shortwave trough responsible for the showers and
thunderstorms, upper-air pattern will become southwest with some
weak ridging across the southeast CONUS. At the same time, another
large trough will begin digging into the Pacific Northwest and
will be the main feature for another severe weather event on
Tuesday. (See long term for more information). High temperatues
on Monday will reach the 80s across the region, lower to mid 80s
north of I-20 and mid to upper 80s south of I-20. Monday night
will be mild, with lows only able to drop into the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the region. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Main focus of interest in the long-term period is the potential for
severe thunderstorms across areas mainly north of Interstate 20 on
Tuesday.  Surface setup ahead of the storm system will be
characterized by an enhanced pressure gradient bringing strong
southerly winds to the ArkLaTex on Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Dewpoint values will quickly climb into the mid to upper 60s which
will help to destabilize the lower-levels of the warm sector ahead
of an approaching dryline boundary from the west. Southwest flow
aloft will further aid in destabilizing the atmosphere as a broad
trough across the western CONUS migrates eastward into the Southern
Plains allowing for moisture to deepen areawide through Tuesday
night. Surface boundary to be the trigger for convection on Tuesday
evening as it moves east across the region, tapping into an
atmosphere already primed with moisture and a strong low-level jet.
Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging
winds, and hail may be possible ahead of the convective line,
followed by a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat within the
line as it migrates east across the region. At this time SPC has the
I-30 corridor as well as southeast Oklahoma in an Enhanced risk for
severe thunderstorms with a Slight risk in an area surrounding Tyler
to Shreveport to El Dorado.

An unsettled weather pattern to prevail from Tuesday onward. Frontal
boundary that moves into the region on Tuesday will likely linger
across south Louisiana into Mississippi through late in the work
week. Scattered elevated post-frontal showers to persist through
Thursday night before the surface high shifts east allowing the
front to return back north as a warm front bringing showers and
isolated thunderstorms to parts of the region on Friday. A slow
moving upper-level trough will set up across northern Mexico into
Texas and southeast Oklahoma on Saturday, bringing continued rain
chances with isolated thunderstorms to portions of the ArkLaTex.
/05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

For the 03/00Z TAFs, conditions will continue to deteriorate from
the west and south as several waves of strong to severe
thunderstorms enter ArkLaTex airspace. As storms impact area
terminals, visibilities will briefly drop due to torrential
rainfall, accompanied by strong gusty winds. Storm chances will
continue through 03/06Z, diminishing from west to east. In the wake
of these storms, MVFR CIGs will linger through the night and into
the morning, lifting to VFR tomorrow. Winds will remain southerly at
sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts, with locally strong gusts possible
in or near thunderstorms through the evening.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  71  86 /  90   0   0   0
MLU  66  87  70  87 /  90   0   0   0
DEQ  60  84  67  83 /  80   0  10  30
TXK  64  87  69  85 /  80   0   0  20
ELD  61  86  68  85 /  90   0   0  10
TYR  66  87  70  85 /  80   0   0  10
GGG  66  86  70  85 /  90   0   0  10
LFK  68  89  71  87 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
559 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
559 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will return to the region this afternoon through this
evening, some possibly strong to severe with the primary threat of
large hail up to golf ball size. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes
also cannot be ruled out with these storms as a returning warm front
will allow for greater instability and shear, especially south of the
I-20 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible by
late Tuesday into Tuesday night as the next cold front will arrive.
The threat appears to be highest along and north of the I-30 corridor
where all modes of severe weather will be possible through the early
morning hours on Wednesday.

The pattern looks to remain unsettled through the end of the week as
rounds of heavy rainfall will become more likely as the front stalls
south of the region. This could reintroduce flooding concerns across
the region through the end of the week as several inches of rainfall
may be possible over the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
659 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             3 SE LIBERTY CITY       32.42N 94.92W
04/02/2023  M1.75 INCH       GREGG              TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER.

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             1 NE KILGORE            32.40N 94.85W
04/02/2023  E2.00 INCH       GREGG              TX   PUBLIC

            PICTURES SENT VIA EMAIL.

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             2 SSE ROLLING MEADOWS   32.38N 94.80W
04/02/2023  E2.00 INCH       GREGG              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED VIA EMAIL.

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
712 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             6 WSW HALLSVILLE        32.48N 94.67W
04/02/2023  E1.75 INCH       HARRISON           TX   PUBLIC

&&

BT

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