River Flood Warning 49, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1245 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

New Tornado Watch #59 has been issued through 8 AM this morning
for most of our eastern counties and parishes. It is likely we
will be able to cancel most of the area well before the watch is
set to expire as the threat will quickly diminish prior to sunrise
with the cold front advancing well to the east along the MS River.

/19/

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Tornado Watch #55 and #57 both continue through midnight, but have
begun to remove many of our NW counties along the Middle Red River
Valley south across much of NE Texas. The QLCS continues to march
eastward from near Texarkana to west of Shreveport/Bossier City
southward to just west of Nacogdoches and Lufkin in Deep East TX.
The threat of embedded tornadoes will continue along the advancing
QLCS for the next several hours so an additional Tornado Watch is
possible farther downstream. More updates to follow overnight as
warranted.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A very deep upper trough over Southwest Texas and Southeast New
Mexico will eject east-northeast into Oklahoma tonight while
taking on a slight negative tilt. At the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary was located along and north of Interstate 20
west of the DFW Metroplex, and then east-northeast along the
Interstate 30 corridor in Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas.
A rapidly developing surface low is also located along the front
in Western North Texas.

Frontal forcing combined with increase ascent ahead of the upper
trough has resulted in the development of scattered convection
across North Central Texas and farther west across the dryline.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also developing across
East Texas south of Interstate 20 in the warm sector. This
development is of particular concern over the next few hours. As
of 15z, wind field across East Texas are not the most conducive
for severe weather development, but model guidance is in good
agreement that this should quickly improve over the next 2 to 3
hours. In addition, mesoanalysis indicates 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
in the warm sector. This initial severe weather threat is going to
be largely conditional if any of the convection can become deeply
rooted and mature. If that occurs, severe weather is likely with
the potential for tornadoes, potential strong, and very large
hail. We will also have to watch for the supercells developing
along the Interstate 35 corridor to move into Northeast Texas and
Southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon/early this evening.

While there is still uncertainty regarding the potential for
discrete supercells across our area, there is still higher
confidence is the development of an intense QLCS across Southern
Oklahoma southward into Texas this evening, which will quickly
move eastward and into our forecast area during the mid to late
evening hours. There is the possibility for very strong damage
winds and line-embedded tornadoes. Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest
Arkansas, East Texas, and possibly extreme Northwest Louisiana,
remain the areas of greatest concern, even with the QLCS. Some of
the high-resolution model guidance suggests the QLCS may begin to
weaken with eastward extent in Louisiana during the early morning
hours of Friday due to warmer temperatures aloft and weaker
forcing for ascent.

The bulk of the intense convection should move east and out of the
forecast area around or just after sunrise Friday morning.
However, some additional wrap-around precip is likely north of
Interstate 20 through the mid to late morning hours as the
departing upper trough and surface low lift northeast. Cold
temperatures aloft may provide enough instability for a few
isolated thunderstorms in the wrap-around precip. No additional
precipitation is expected after noon Friday.

A narrow axis of total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches is still
possible across Southeast Oklahoma and into Southwest Arkansas.
Locally higher amounts are also possible, which could result in
flooding. Expected rainfall amounts should be much lower farther
southeast, so the Flood Watch was maintained with no changes.

Gradient winds are also expected to increase this evening and
especially during the early morning hours across the entire
forecast area. Sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph are likely,
and there could be some gusts between 35 and 45 mph. The pressure
gradient should finally relax allowing wind speeds to gradually
diminish after noon Friday. Significantly cooler temperatures are
also expected Friday as the west-northwest winds result in strong
cold air advection. Daytime highs on Friday will likely only be in
the mid 50s across the northern zones to lower 70s in Central
Louisiana. Overnight lows Friday night and into Saturday morning
will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

The region will remain under the influence of surface high pressure
on Saturday, resulting in light winds and mostly clear skies.
Temperatures will start out in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with
highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.  Mostly clear skies will
continue on Sunday, but southerly winds will return as the sfc high
shifts east of the region. This will allow for warmer temps, with
morning lows in the 40s and highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s.

By early next week, expect the warming trend to continue as
southerly winds will remain over the area. Upper ridging will also
start to build just south of the region across the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry conditions remain in the forecast for Monday, although long
range models are hinting at the possibility of some warm air
advection showers south of Interstate 20 on Monday afternoon. By
Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances return to the forecast, as a
frontal boundary moves into the area. This boundary will likely
stall across the region on both days, due to the strong upper ridge
in the gulf slowing its southward movement. This may lead to a
gradient in temps both days. Highs and lows north of the front could
be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the rest of the CWA, where temps
will range from the 60s in the morning to 70s and 80s in the
afternoon. Rain chances remain in the forecast next Thursday, but
the ridge will start to break down, allowing the front to finally
push through the region. Expect cooler temps in wake of the front by
the end of the work week. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

For the 03/06Z TAF period, a line of strong to severe convection
continues to rapidly accelerate eastward across our airspace this
evening into the overnight hours. Intermittent MVFR cigs will be
possible through much of Friday morning as the cold front shifts
east of the region before gradual clearing begins to occur in the
latter half of the TAF period except across our northern sites in
South AR where wrap-around moisture associated with the trailing
low will keep low VFR cigs in place. Strong and gusty winds will
persist through much of the period, shifting from SW to W/NW with
fropa as speeds generally range from around 10-20 kts with higher
gusts up to 30-35 mph or higher through the day on Friday before
decoupling by around 04/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  46  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  69  46  70  48 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  38  68  45 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  60  43  70  50 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  63  42  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  62  45  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  63  43  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  68  45  77  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until noon CST today for ARZ050-051-059>061.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch until noon CST today for OKZ077.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-018-040215-
Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Sabine-Natchitoches-
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 57 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears to be possible this
afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. There will be two
main chances for severe weather. The first will come during the
early or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for discrete
supercells. This would pose a threat for large hail and strong
tornadoes. The second round will come along and just ahead of an
advancing cold front that will push through during the late afternoon
and into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat for this
round will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Wind Advisory will remain in effect through noon CST Friday.
Otherwise, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

ARZ051-060-061-040215-
Howard-Hempstead-Nevada-
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 57 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears to be possible this
afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. There will be two
main chances for severe weather. The first will come during the
early or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for discrete
supercells. This would pose a threat for large hail and strong
tornadoes. The second round will come along and just ahead of an
advancing cold front that will push through during the late afternoon
and into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat for this
round will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. In
addition, moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible from training
storms that will increase the potential for Flash Flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The Flood Watch and Wind Advisory will remain in effect through noon
CST on Friday. Otherwise, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

ARZ050-059-OKZ077-040215-
Sevier-Little River-McCurtain-
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears to be possible this
afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. There will be two
main chances for severe weather. The first will come during the
early or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for discrete
supercells. This would pose a threat for large hail and strong
tornadoes. The second round will come along and just ahead of an
advancing cold front that will push through during the late afternoon
and into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat for this
round will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. In
addition, moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible from training
storms that will increase the potential for Flash Flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The Flood Watch and Wind Advisory will remain in effect through noon
CST on Friday. Otherwise, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

ARZ070-TXZ096-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-040215-
Miller-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-
Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Angelina-San Augustine-Sabine-
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, east
Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Wind Advisory will remain in effect through noon CST Friday.
Otherwise, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TXZ097-040215-
Bowie-
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears to be possible this
afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. There will be two
main chances for severe weather. The first will come during the
early or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for discrete
supercells. This would pose a threat for large hail and strong
tornadoes. The second round will come along and just ahead of an
advancing cold front that will push through during the late afternoon
and into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat for this
round will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Wind Advisory will remain in effect through noon CST on Friday.
Otherwise, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

LAZ013-014-019>022-040215-
Jackson-Ouachita-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
803 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A widespread severe weather outbreak appears to be possible this
afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. There will be two
main chances for severe weather. The first will come during the
early or mid afternoon hours where we have the potential for discrete
supercells. This would pose a threat for large hail and strong
tornadoes. The second round will come along and just ahead of an
advancing cold front that will push through during the late afternoon
and into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat for this
round will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Wind Advisory will remain in effect through noon CST Friday.
Otherwise, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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