Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Busy afternoon for the Texarkana vicinity with a good cool pool
now helping to move the heavier rain axis down toward the corner
of NW LA. We have seen inches and inches falling and flowing into
the Red River primarily, but the streets in Texarkana have become
rivers in their own right for some locales. Something we haven't
had much to worry with lately, but the drought monitor is headed
for the back burner.

A widening area of lower 70s is sitting over SE OK/SW AR/NE TX
and is drifting to the southeastward toward NW LA. This focal
point of development started out as the warm front going
stationary, and now the rain cooled air is expanding a bit. If you
look at the water vapor, it looks like a moisture starved
Pineapple Connection all the way back to the E Pacific over Baja.
Thankfully the heavier axis is shifting southeastward now and
should continue to do so. We have seen rainfall over 5 inches in
a couple of Flash Flood Warnings issued earlier today. The HRRR
was working on moving this rain area all morning toward LA, but it
will only get so far. This model and most short term solutions
show the main push tonight and overnight with more focus for TX
counties eventually. And still the Gulf ridge holds over many
parishes for now.

We have some very warm air in place with low 90s over the LA
parishes well south of I-20, but a great contrast going up along
our I-49 corridor. Shreveport has cooled with some vicinty showers
and the muggy SE winds are a little gusty in places transporting
the rich moisture flow into our four state area. Lows tonight will
be mostly in the mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will likely
range in the 70s as the clouds and rain shifts across our region.
The cold front proper will seep in tomorrow, but the winds will be
shifting to the N/NW early behind the overnight convective push.
However, the deeper dry air will take tomorrow all day and evening
to really to work on moving out all of the rain areas. Low temps
tomorrow night will get down into the 50s across I-30 even under
the clouds. A large range of middle 60s along and south of I-20.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

By Friday morning, a strong surface cold front and the bulk of the
associated showers and thunderstorms should be southeast of the
forecast area. The vast majority of the model guidance pretty much
brings precip to an end by day break Friday. This seems reasonable
as the primary shortwave trough affecting us will also be southeast
of us. However, a northwesterly upper-level jet will strengthen
during the day as a deep longwave trough dives southeast from North
Dakota towards the Ohio River Valley. With the elevated frontal
boundary still across our southern zones, there could still be a few
lingering showers Friday morning southeast of line from Lufkin to
Monroe. Thus, I maintained slight-chance PoPs for this time period.
Rain chances should end entirely by midday Friday, and a dry
forecast is expected for the remainder of the period.

The big story in the long-term period will be the arrival of fall-
like weather during the weekend. The strong northwesterly flow will
drive a cold Canadian surface high southward into the Central CONUS.
Gusty northerly winds on Friday and Saturday will advect the coolest
weather into our area since May. Overnight low temperatures Friday
night/Saturday morning should fall below 60 degrees F areawide and
should cool into the mid 40s in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest
Arkansas. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be even cooler as winds
diminish below 5 kts combine with clear skis for prime radiational
cooling. Most of the area will fall into the 40s, and I wouldn't be
surprised to see an isolated reading in the upper 30s in the terrain
of Southeast Oklahoma. Daytime high temperatures on Saturday will
struggle into the mid 60s to lower 70s with the strong cold air
advection. However, temperatures will quickly moderate and warm for
the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. /CN/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Very messy TAF's are still anticipated over the next 24 hours, as
showers and thunderstorms grow in coverage into the overnight
hours. By 05/06z, look for TSRA and +TSRA at many of our E. Texas
terminals, with that activity moving south and east into the
morning. Widespread IFR CIGs are also anticipated past 05/09z,
and will likely be impacting all terminals by 05/12z.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  50  10
MLU  69  81  66  82 /  50  80  60  20
DEQ  64  77  57  79 / 100  80  10   0
TXK  66  75  61  78 / 100  80  30  10
ELD  65  75  61  78 /  80  90  50  10
TYR  69  77  65  82 / 100  80  20   0
GGG  68  79  64  81 / 100  80  30  10
LFK  70  80  66  82 /  60  80  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-
     071.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
507 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-051100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
Upshur-Marion-
507 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, southeast
Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop today across portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma,
and Southwest Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
which may result in localized flooding of low lying, poor drainage
areas. Additional showers and thunderstorms will track through the
region late this evening and overnight, which will result in a
renewed threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding
before diminishing late. Locally gusty winds will also be possible
from these storms as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift to the southeast and diminish
across the region Thursday morning. Much cooler and drier air will
begin to filter south Friday, and especially for the upcoming
weekend. A slow warming trend will commence Monday, but dry
conditions will continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight for the potential
for rainfall and flooding reports, as well as gusty winds associated
with the storms late this evening and overnight.

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167-
051100-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
507 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible today across Lower East Texas, North Louisiana, and
Southcentral Arkansas. While this may diminish this evening, a line
of showers and thunderstorms will spread into Southern Arkansas and
East Texas late tonight as they begin to weaken. Locally gusty winds
and brief heavy rainfall will be possible late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to diminish
Thursday morning as they move into Deep East Texas and North
Louisiana. While brief heavy rainfall may accompany some of the
storms during the morning, no organized hazardous weather is
expected. Cooler and drier air will spread south into the region
Friday and Saturday, with gusty northerly winds expected over
Northcentral Louisiana where humidities will be abnormally low, and
any wetting rains the next couple of days will be light. This will
result in an enhanced fire danger over this area Saturday, before
winds diminish Saturday night and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight over portions of East
Texas, Southcentral Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana.

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
527 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

OKZ077-TXZ096-042315-
McCurtain OK-Red River TX-
527 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCCURTAIN AND
NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sawyer, or 11 miles southeast of Hugo, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Wright City, Valliant, Millerton, Garvin, Farmers Hill,
Negley, Woodland, Redland, Silver City, Kanawha, Kiomatia, Slim, and
Albion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9531 3388 9528 3391 9528 3391 9527
      3389 9527 3390 9525 3393 9525 3396 9523
      3394 9516 3409 9516 3414 9491 3373 9491
      3377 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 265DEG 25KT 3393 9533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

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