Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
304 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Key Messages:

1. Severe thunderstorms expected tonight. All modes of severe
weather are possible, along with flooding.

2. A Flood Watch is in effect for a large portion of the area
from 7 PM tonight through 7 AM Monday morning.

3. Below normal temperatures in the upper 70s into the 80s will
occur through the first half of next week before temperatures
climb again into the 90s by next weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Current surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary bisecting
central Missouri, with satellite imagery showing increasing cloud
cover across the area. Current radar at 245 AM shows some showers
forming over our area, with thunderstorms in northeast OK
expected to continue pushing into our CWA within the next hour.
This activity is expected to continue through the early morning
hours, posing a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging
winds and hail will be the primary threat with this morning
activity, with a low end flooding threat as well.

The main show looks to be later this evening into the overnight
hours as a potent shortwave trough pushes from the Northern Plains
and an associated cold front sweeps through the area from NW to
SE. Both severe weather and flash flooding will be a concern with
this system.

Severe Weather Threat Later This Evening: Showers and
thunderstorms that occur this morning should diminish by the early
afternoon, allowing for daytime heating to further destabilize
the atmosphere. 30-50 kt midlevel westerly flow combined with a
30-40kt southwesterly low level jet will lead to ample shear
supporting strong to severe storms. SPC Day 1 Outlook highlights
the majority of the CWA in an Enhanced Risk for this time period,
with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph as the primary hazard. With
large hail parameters between 4-6, large hail up to golf balls
will be a secondary threat, especially with any supercells that
form ahead of the cold front. Forecast sounding wind profiles show
veering winds with curved hodographs, which would also support
the potential for a few tornadoes as well.

Flooding Threat: Although the frontal passage is expected to be
more progressive, there is a chance for storms to begin training
west to east. Ensembles show good agreement of mean PWAT values
around and exceeding 2.0 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile, and approaching the climatological maximum. HREF LPMM
shows a wide swath of QPF between 3-5 inches, with localized
amounts up to 7 inches. WPC has highlighted the Missouri Ozarks in
a Moderate Risk ERO to account for this potential. Decided to
issue a Flood Watch for a large portion of the area from 7 PM
tonight through 12 AM Monday morning.

Additional rainfall will occur behind the frontal passage before
the area begins clearing by Monday morning after sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Once the activity moves out of the area late Monday morning, the
remainder of the work week looks pleasant, with highs in the mid
70s to low 80s through Wednesday, and into the upper 80s to low
90s (mainly west of Hwy 65) Thursday and Friday. A ridging pattern
will build over the area towards the end of the forecast period,
bringing warmer temperatures over the weekend. Highs look to range
in the 90s, with heat indices surpassing 100 degrees for portions
of the area Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to build into the area
through the early morning hours, with MVFR conditions likely as a
result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Some showers may
linger into the late morning before a brief lull in activity
occurs during the afternoon hours. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are then expected to spread across the area during
the evening and into the overnight hours along a cold frontal
passage. These storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe, with all modes of severe weather possible. MVFR to IFR
conditions will likely be a result of the stronger storms. Some
discrepancies still exist regarding timing and severity.

Otherwise, winds are currently light out of the east/southeast at
the TAF sites, and will become more southerly during the afternoon
before shifting out of the northwest behind the frontal passage on
Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
819 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
819 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move in
from the west late tonight. Strong to severe storms with quarter
size hail, 60 mph winds, and localized flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning and
again Sunday night. There is considerable uncertainty in how
strong storms will be, especially with the second round in the
afternoon to overnight hours. Large hail, damaging winds, and
localized flooding are the primary concerns, but a low end
tornado threat also exists in the afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
328 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

MOZ093-101-130915-
Newton MO-McDonald MO-
328 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON AND WESTERN
MCDONALD COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

At 327 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Wyandotte to South West
City. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Airport Observation.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Noel, Dodge, Goodman, South West City, Pineville, Lanagan,
Cayuga and Tiff City.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9462 3685 9443 3650 9431 3650 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 255DEG 18KT 3670 9467 3651 9460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
405 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

MOZ093-101-130945-
Newton MO-McDonald MO-
405 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON AND EASTERN
MCDONALD COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 405 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Goodman to near Pineville to near Bella
Vista. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bella Vista, Big Sugar Creek State Park, Fairview, Stella, Powell and
Rocky Comfort.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9431 3650 9432 3661 9436 3672 9441
      3688 9407 3653 9407 3649 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 244DEG 28KT 3671 9437 3664 9430 3653 9427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
503 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

MOZ102-131030-
Barry MO-
503 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTY THROUGH
530 AM CDT...

At 502 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Washburn to Seligman to near Gateway.
Movement was north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Roaring River State Park, Cassville, Seligman, Exeter, Butterfield,
Washburn and Wayne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9396 3676 9382 3664 9370 3650 9380
      3650 9405 3651 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 198DEG 28KT 3658 9401 3653 9392 3645 9388

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
521 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

MOZ094-102-103-131100-
Barry MO-Lawrence MO-Stone MO-
521 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN STONE...NORTHEASTERN
BARRY AND SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cassville to 11 miles southeast of Purdy
to 12 miles southwest of Galena. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aurora, Marionville, Crane, Galena, Mccord Bend, Hurley, Jenkins,
Ponce de Leon, Mcdowell, Wheelerville, Madry and Elsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9385 3700 9370 3699 9334 3686 9334
      3664 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 222DEG 45KT 3675 9383 3674 9374 3671 9367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Titus