Severe Thunderstorm Warning 357, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
201 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

Key Messages:

1. Warm and humid conditions continue into Tuesday with scattered
thunderstorms.

2. Turning drier and slightly cooler on Wednesday into Thursday
behind a front.

3. Thunderstorm chances return on Friday, but much of the weekend
looks dry.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

Current conditions and synoptic overview:

Water vaport shows upper energy shifting into southern Missouri.
Temperatures have reached convective temperatures and were ranging
from the low to mid 90s as of 1 pm and we've started to see
convection develop across our southern CWA. Heat index values were
in the mid 90s to around 101 at 1 pm.

The upper level low was finally lifting northeast into the area
after spending the past couple of days near the Red River valley.
A larger trough was shifting east northeast over the Rockies into
the high plains. 1500 to 2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE has
developed over the area this afternoon and we may see some
isolated stronger to marginally severe storms develop during the
remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Thunderstorms
should start to weaken after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating and decreasing instability. Hail to the size of quarters
and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible in the strongest
storms. The majority of convection should be along and southeast
of the I44 corridor this afternoon and evening.

It will remain quite mild tonight with lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s expected.

A frontal boundary will move into the plains tonight and Tuesday
with a low level jet developing over eastern Kansas into western
Missouri tonight. The pressure gradient should tighten up tonight
into Tuesday, especially over the west where we may see some wind
gusts over 30 mph on Tuesday. Additional scattered convection is
possible during the day with a few stronger storms possible. Highs
on Tuesday will once again top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s
with heat index values from the mid 90s to around 105.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

The front should move across the area Tuesday night with
convection possible along and ahead of the front. Drier and cooler
air will move in behind the front for Wednesday into Thursday.

An upper ridge will start to build again to our southwest by the
end of the week, with northwest flow aloft developing over our
area. A shortwave diving southeast on the eastern side of the
ridge may bring additional scattered convection to the area on
Friday, but drier air moves in behind this feature keeping much of
the upcoming weekend dry.

A quicker westerly to west-northwest flow develops by late in the
weekend into early next week and looks like it will bring shower
and thunderstorm chances back into the area.

Temperatures look to be around normal for this time of year during
the later part of the week through the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A low level jet
will begin to impinge on the region tonight bringing wind gusts up
to 25-30 kts and moderate wind shear. Wind shear will be most
significant in the west. Some showers and thunderstorms currently
in NW AR may impact BBG over the next few hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
155 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
155 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Humid conditions continue to build into the region this afternoon
with afternoon heat index values in the middle 90 to around 102.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
across southern Missouri. There is the potential for an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Excessive heat continues on Tuesday. Heat index values will climb
reach into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Tuesday, especially west
of Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night with a cold front moving through Tuesday night.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

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