Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
203 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory continues today and Monday for our western CWA.

2. Marginally severe storms will be possible during the overnight
hours tonight into Monday morning.

3. Heat continues through the week...gradually shifting east
across the area by mid to late week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Mostly sunny across the area today, with a few cumulus starting to
develop over the southwest corner of Missouri and across south
central Missouri. Temperatures were ranging from the low to mid
80s in the east to the low to mid 90s in the west. Dew points were
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Still have a bit of a cap
in place over the area with the highest instability in the
southwest where surface based CAPES were around 3000-3500 j/kg.
Moisture axis extended from eastern Nebraska into eastern Kansas
and southwest Missouri.

We can't rule out an isolated storm over our far western counties
this afternoon/evening, but confidence and coverage is pretty low
at this time.

The main chance of convection will be late tonight into Monday
morning. Models are coming to a better consensus with an MCS
developing in the northern/central plains and then pushing into
our CWA as we get close to sunrise on Monday. The best chances
will be east of an Osceola to Branson line. Some strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible with damaging wind gusts
as the main severe weather risk. There is also a potential of
localized flooding with any training storms. Most of the activity
should end during the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.
If the MCS materializes, it should work over the atmosphere in the
eastern portion of the CWA which will limit highs to the 80s
there. Further west, we are still expecting temperatures to reach
the upper 90s with heat index values from 100 to 106 and will
maintain the heat advisory there for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

With the upper ridge centered over the central and southern
plains, northwest flow will continue along the edge of the ridge
which will bring several waves of energy over our eastern CWA and
across the OH/TN valley regions. Several rounds of convection will
be possible into Wednesday with the ridge axis gradually shifting
more eastward with time and pushing the better rain chances to the
east of our area. The hottest weather will continue to be over the
western CWA while the clouds/convection will keep temperatures
lower in the east. Will probably need to extend the heat advisory
in time and further east as we head further into the week. The
hottest temperatures look to be on Wednesday and Thursday as the
ridge axis moves into the forecast area.

The ridge will begin to flatten out on Thursday, which will likely
bring a fronal boundary into the area and stall out. This will
bring increasing rain chances heading into the later part of the
week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the 18z TAFS, while we can't rule out some isolated
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, expected
coverage and confidence isn't high enough to warrant an include in
the current forecast. We are expecting VFR conditions until late
tonight into Monday morning when a thunderstorm complex from the
plains will be possible. Models seem to be in better agreement
than with last nights/this mornings potential and we have included
prob30s to start out, generally after 11z. Within the
thunderstorms some MVFR/IFR will be possible along with some gusty
winds with any stronger storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-078-088-
     089-093-094-101>103.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ066-077-078-
     088-089-093-094-101>103.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
219 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
219 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Extreme excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Heat Advisory continues today. There is a change for marginally
severe thunderstorms, mainly east of an Osceola to Branson line
towards sunrise. A few strong storms with gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for locations along and west of a
Nevada to Stockton to Cassville Missouri line Monday. Hot
conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into next
week with heat index values similar each day as they top out in
the upper 90s to 110 degree range. The hottest conditions will
occur across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

Thunderstorm chances will continue over the eastern Ozarks on
Monday with some marginally severe storms. Damaging wind will be
the main risk, along with the chance for localized flooding.

The heat will continue to build back up this week with western
Missouri and southeast Kansas remaining the hottest with heat
index values from 105 to 110. This heat will spread to the entire
area by Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
448 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

MOZ093-302215-
Newton MO-
448 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Newton
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Granby, or 8 miles northeast of Neosho, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Granby, Diamond, Newtonia, Stark City and Ritchey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3698 9439 3703 9425 3687 9406 3686 9407
      3676 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 320DEG 13KT 3693 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Soria

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
508 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     Hail             3 N Granby              36.96N 94.25W
07/30/2023  E0.70 inch       Newton             MO   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports dime sized hail
            three miles north of Granby at 1658 hours.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

MOZ093-302245-
Newton MO-
512 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Newton
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Granby, or 7 miles northeast of Neosho, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Granby, Fairview, Newtonia, Stella, Stark City and Ritchey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9430 3697 9434 3699 9420 3687 9406
      3680 9406 3675 9421 3675 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 339DEG 11KT 3689 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Soria

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