Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
509 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

1. Isolated/scattered severe storms ahead of severe MCS heading in
from Kansas this afternoon and evening.

2. An active weather pattern will remain across the area this week
with several chances for rain. A few strong storms will be
possible.

3. Above normal temperatures will occur this week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

A severe MCS is currently located from Topeka, KS to Emporia, KS
and moving to the southeast at 30-40 mph. This puts it into the
the northwestern CWA between 5pm and 6pm CDT. Expect the system to
maintain strength into the far northwester CWA and then start to
gradually weaken as it moves through the rest of the area this
evening into early tonight. This weakening will be due to
decreased shear and instability. Threats will be 70 mph winds, 1
inch hail, and a short lived tornado or two over the northwestern
CWA, transitioning to primarily 60 mph winds more toward the
central CWA.

Ahead of the MCS, discrete cells have developed and are expected
to develop. Instability has increased to 3,000-4,000 J/kg on the
warm side of the front, which is from Fort Scott, KS to
Springfield, MO to Ozark County, MO. Large hail to 2 inches in
diameter and 60 mph winds are the primary hazards with these
storms. Expect the main area to be along and near the general
vicinity of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The upper level ridge will remain over the region the rest of the
week into the start of the weekend. Highs will generally warm
into the 80s each afternoon through Saturday. The active weather
pattern will continue the rest of the week with several chances
for rain at times. It will not rain the entire period and there
are still questions on the exact timing coverage of storms each
day.

A weak disturbance will track north into the region on Wednesday
and will result in the potential for some isolated to scattered
storms across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Deep layer
shear will be weaker across the area on Wednesday limiting the
severe potential but given the instability a strong storm or two
could be possible.

Thursday into Friday an upper level low will lift north across the
Plains and could result in slightly better coverage of showers and
storms across the area, though there is still uncertainty on the
coverage each day. Deep layer shear will increase some with the
upper level low and could result in some strong to severe storms,
though the better chances may remain just west of the area.

Late this weekend into early next week as pattern change looks
possible as an upper level trough moves across the region pushing
the ridge off to the east. The ensemble models do different on
the timing and track of this trough. An upper level northwest flow
pattern may setup across the region early next week which could
result in the an active weather pattern continue into next week
but uncertainty remains on timing and track. Slightly cooler
temperatures will occur as a result with highs in the 70s
expected Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 457 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

A storm system will push southeast into southeast Kansas and
southern Missouri this evening and tonight. A few scattered
storms, some strong to severe, will continue to pop up ahead of
the main line of storms late this afternoon. Storms are expected
to gradually weaken as they move southeast tonight. MVFR ceilings
may persist across southern Missouri into the morning hours.

Much of Tuesday morning and afternoon are expected to remain dry,
with additional scattered shower and thunderstorm chances by late
tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Winds will be out of the
southeast at 10-15 kt outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
808 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
808 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

A thunderstorm complex will continue to push through southern
Missouri this evening and tonight. Wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters will be the primary threat. There
is a low chance of a brief tornado. This system is expected to
weaken overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

An unsettled weather pattern will remain over the area with
additional thunderstorm chances possible at times each day
through the rest of the week. There are still questions on the
exact timing,, coverage, and exact locations affected each day
but thunderstorm chances exist each day but will not be a total
washout. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Didio

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
721 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  37.34N 94.30W
05/09/2023                   JASPER             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOCAL BUSINESS LOST ONE THIRD OF ROOF.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
749 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             1 S NIXA                37.03N 93.29W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

&&

ANGLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
757 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

MOZ090-100115-
Greene MO-
757 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Greene
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ash Grove, or 14 miles north of Republic, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ash Grove, Walnut Grove, Sacville and Cave Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 9361 3743 9345 3742 9340 3728 9347
      3728 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 185DEG 21KT 3733 9352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             WALNUT GROVE            37.41N 93.55W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
826 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             1 W REPUBLIC            37.12N 93.50W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
835 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE WILLARD           37.23N 93.40W
05/09/2023  M78 MPH          GREENE             MO   ASOS

            SGF ASOS MEASURED 78 MPH WIND GUST AT
            SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT.

&&

JD